Wall Street Weekly Report (Dec 9–15, 2025) | Merlintrader trading Blog

Wall Street Weekly Report

Rapporto Settimanale di Wall Street

Financial Analysis and Market Intelligence (Educational Only)
Analisi Finanziaria e Business Intelligence di Mercato (Solo Didattico)
Week of December 9–15, 2025
Settimana 9–15 dicembre 2025
Macro, small caps, biotech, sentiment and FDA catalysts – not investment advice.
Macro, small cap, biotech, sentiment e catalyst FDA – non è consulenza di investimento.

Economic Events: The Week Ahead

KEY CATALYST FACT Federal Reserve FOMC Meeting (Dec 17–18) – markets are currently pricing an approximate probability of a 25 bp rate cut to 3.50%–3.75%, which would be the third cut of 2025. This decision is likely to be the single most important event affecting equity valuations in the following week.
Tuesday, Dec 9
RBA Rate Decision
Australia’s Reserve Bank widely expected to hold rates at 3.60%. Focus remains on forward guidance regarding 2026 cuts while inflation stays above target.
Wednesday, Dec 10
US Jobless Claims
Initial jobless claims expected to show continued softness in the labour market. Recent data indicates monthly payroll growth slowing from around 110k in 2024 to roughly 50k in 2025.
Thursday, Dec 11
UK GDP (Q3 Final)
UK services PMI at 51.3 (revised higher), manufacturing at 50.2. Markets expect a BOE rate cut to 3.75% on Dec 18 with relatively flat Q3 GDP growth.
Friday, Dec 12
US Core Inflation (CPI)
Core inflation around 3% YoY despite tariff pressures. Estimates suggest only 40–50% of tariff costs have been passed to consumers. Markets watch how persistent price pressures remain.
Friday, Dec 12
Retail Sales Data
Holiday shopping read-out. Affluent consumers supported by the wealth effect; lower earners show more cautious spending patterns as confidence remains weak.
Ongoing
Government Data Gaps
Recent government shutdown has delayed several official economic releases. Markets are trading with incomplete information, with potential for higher volatility when data normalises.
TRADER’S PERSPECTIVE (Not Financial Advice) PERSONAL VIEW The economic backdrop broadly supports the Fed’s dovish stance, but much of the potential rate cut appears already reflected in prices. The real catalyst will be Chair Powell’s commentary and the updated path for 2026 policy. Market pricing indicates expectations of multiple additional 25 bp cuts next year. At the same time, uncertainty around future Fed personnel and Trump administration policies adds downside risk to guidance and may justify an extra risk premium. This is a personal observation based on public data, not a forecast or investment recommendation.

Trump Factor: Policy Implications for Markets

Tariffs Uncertainty: Supreme Court review may change the legal basis of IEEPA tariffs (roughly 100B USD collected in 2025), forcing a pivot toward Section 232/301 frameworks. This creates potential refund risk but could also bring more clarity on the future policy architecture. Labour-intensive small/mid caps remain under pressure, while capital-intensive firms benefit from tax incentives.
Fiscal Easing via “One Big Beautiful Bill Act”: Front-loaded tax incentives and investment credits are supporting some companies. Retroactive capex credits create one-time cash benefits for corporations and may support growth into 2026, although effects are likely concentrated among higher-margin beneficiaries.
AI Investment Acceleration: Tariff and tax policy has indirectly accelerated AI adoption and margin expansion through labour cost optimisation. Large technology platforms and AI infrastructure players benefit, while labour-intensive sectors face pressure. Real household labour income growth remains below 1%.
Immigration Policy Impact: Tighter immigration reduces labour supply. Breakeven monthly payroll growth is estimated to have fallen from around 200k (2023–24) to roughly 50k (2025). Unemployment has risen despite slower job creation, as labour demand falls faster than labour supply. Wage pressure concentrates on high-skill roles, with disinflation in many lower-skill segments.
Fed Chair Uncertainty: Public criticism of Jerome Powell introduces personnel risk around the May Fed meeting. Potential leadership change could alter the policy framework. Market participants price an additional risk premium; bond volatility remains elevated.
TRADER OBSERVATION PERSONAL VIEW Based on earnings and price data, winners and losers appear increasingly bifurcated. Large-cap tech and capital-intensive industrials show resilience, while small-cap, labour-dependent retail/construction/services look more vulnerable. Public credit-market data suggests an elevated risk of a default cycle among weaker credits over the next year, with spreads widening in fragile segments. This is an observational framework based on public information and should not be interpreted as guidance or investment advice.

Hottest Stocks: Small Caps and Biotech (Week of Dec 9–15)

MARKET BACKDROP FACT Small-cap equities outperformed in November (around +2.5%), now trading at an estimated discount to fair value relative to large caps that appear slightly rich on many metrics. The recent volatility pullback in Bitcoin and other risk assets has shaken out part of the retail euphoria; buyback programmes provide a partial floor for indices.
TickerCompanyTheme12-Week MoveKey Driver / CatalystRisk / Reward Label
VCYTVeracyte IncDiagnostic Biotech+48.8%Oncology diagnostic pipeline; AI integration in assay development.Moderately positive narrative | P/E 28.7
NBIXNeurocrine BiosciencesCNS/Psych Therapeutics+7.4%Projected strong EPS growth into 2026; neuro-psych pipeline expansion.Positive narrative | P/E 22.3
KROSKeros TherapeuticsRare Disease+28.6%High EPS growth projections; focused rare-disease portfolio.Very constructive | P/E 9.0
ARQTArcutis BiotherapeuticsDermatology Biotech+76.1%Pipeline momentum; strong revenue-growth expectations; no near-term dated catalysts.High-beta positive | P/E n/a
FOLDAmicus TherapeuticsLysosomal Storage+24.1%EPS growth, rare-disease tailwinds, expanding international footprint.Positive | P/E 28.0
BMRNBioMarin PharmaceuticalRare Genetic DiseaseConsolidationSix marketed therapies; strong PKU franchise; solid FCF profile.Quality bias | valuation seen as reasonable
EXELExelixis IncOncologyApprox. +33% since OctCabometyx growth, new combo data, margin expansion.Strong positive narrative | valuation not extreme
REGNRegeneron PharmaceuticalsLarge-Cap BiotechStableAI-driven discovery, GLP-1 partnerships, ophthalmology pipeline.Defensive quality profile
TYRATyra BiosciencesPrecision OncologyMomentumTargeted cancer therapeutics; AI-assisted patient stratification.High growth, speculative
GHRSGH Research LtdPsychedelic MedicineEmergingNovel approach to depression/PTSD; regulatory pathway gradually clearer.High risk / high potential payoff
BIOTECH SECTOR OBSERVATION PERSONAL VIEW Based on public valuation metrics and sector flows, small-cap biotech currently appears to trade at a discount versus larger peers. AI-driven narratives around drug discovery shorten perceived timelines, while a dense FDA pipeline provides multiple potential catalysts. At the same time, the sector is exposed to rotation risk if the December Fed outcome or macro data disappoint. This is an interpretative view built on public data and should not be read as a sector recommendation or an invitation to trade.

Sentiment – Top 10 Trending Stocks on Social Media (X, Stocktwits, Reddit)

METHODOLOGY FACT Sentiment is derived from retail trading communities (Stocktwits trending ranks, X financial hashtags, Reddit r/stocks and r/wallstreetbets). Labels such as “bullish” or “bearish” reflect aggregated comments and emoji usage in those communities and do not represent professional research or institutional positioning.
RDDT
Reddit Inc
Extremely bullish retail tone
Approx. +97% YTD
Strong quarter with AI-driven ad narrative. Retail communities highlight it as a leading momentum name.
BMRN
BioMarin Pharma
Bullish
High volume
Free-cash-flow and rare-disease moat discussed as long-term positives; perceived institutional accumulation.
EXEL
Exelixis
Very bullish
Approx. +33% recent
Oncology-driven margin expansion, strengthening narrative around key assets.
META
Meta Platforms
Bullish
Approx. +28% YTD
AI leadership, solid ad business, and optionality on WhatsApp monetisation drive positive retail narratives.
PINS
Pinterest
Bullish
Upside perceived
Retail commentary emphasises potential re-rating on AI-enhanced advertising and monetisation.
SNAP
Snap Inc
Mixed / contrarian
Upside but high risk
Weak price performance versus perceived recovery potential. Community divided between turnaround story and structural issues.
YELP
Yelp Inc
Neutral/value
Upside debated
Cash-flow profile seen as underappreciated; valuation metrics attract value-oriented retail traders.
NVDA
NVIDIA
Cooling sentiment
Recent pullback
Debates on high valuations, rising capex and competition. Some rotation away after a long period of leadership.
ASND
Ascendis Pharma
Bullish emerging
Specialty pharma
Endocrine-disorder focus and pipeline strength; seen as institutional-interest magnet among small-cap biotech.
VCYT
Veracyte
Very bullish
+48.8% (12 weeks)
Retail communities highlight diagnostics “moat” and AI-assisted assay development as key long-term drivers.
SOCIAL MEDIA SENTIMENT OBSERVATION PERSONAL VIEW Retail communities on Reddit, Stocktwits and X show constructive positioning on biotech, AI and some social-media names despite recent volatility. Patterns suggest partial rotation away from the classic mega-cap concentration toward smaller, more volatile names. History shows that these retail momentum phases can reverse quickly, especially around central-bank surprises. These comments reflect what traders are saying online – they are not professional research and should not be interpreted as recommendations.

Extended Sentiment Deep Dive: Trend Patterns and Momentum Labels

Extreme Positive Bias (Accumulation-type Behaviour)
Example tickers: RDDT, EXEL, VCYT, ARQT
Signals discussed: daily volume spikes versus 20-day averages, strong skew in bullish comments, and call/put activity biased to the upside. Historically, such phases can precede sharp pullbacks once larger players start to lock in profits.
Positive Trend (Consolidation and Breakout Potential)
Example tickers: META, BMRN, PINS, ASND, NBIX
Signals discussed: steady accumulation, improving comment tone week-over-week and narratives supported by fundamentals (AI, free-cash-flow, pipeline). Traders often frame these as candidates for further upside, but this remains their personal view.
Neutral / Mixed (Indecision and Range Trading)
Example tickers: SNAP, YELP, RKLB
Signals discussed: conflicting narratives, sentiment swinging quickly, prices hovering near technical levels where either breakout or breakdown is possible. Some traders mention option strategies such as straddles or strangles in this context; this is a description of what they do, not a suggestion to use those strategies.
Cooling or Negative Bias (Profit-Taking Phase)
Example tickers: NVDA
Signals discussed: sentiment indicators retreating from prior extremes, more frequent mentions of valuation risk and competition, and an increase in protective positioning. Historically this has sometimes preceded consolidation phases rather than a full trend reversal, but outcomes vary.
Strongly Negative Bias (Capitulation Risk)
Example tickers cited by traders: TSLA (deteriorating tone), LUMN (structural-decline narratives)
Signals discussed: majority of comments negative, volume spikes on down days, frequent references to “avoid until fundamentals stabilise”. Again, this is a retail narrative snapshot, not a fundamental credit or equity opinion.
Special Situations (Binary Event Setups)
Example tickers: INVA (Zoliflodacin FDA decision), MSTR (Bitcoin-linked exposure)
Signals discussed: event-driven positioning where sentiment is dominated by expectations about a single catalyst (regulatory or macro). Outcomes are typically modelled by traders as wide ranges (large potential gains or losses) and are highly sensitive to the actual event.
Sentiment Momentum Tracking – Weekly Shift:

Comparing late November to early December, discussions show stronger positive bias around RDDT, EXEL, BMRN and VCYT, modest loss of momentum around SNAP/YELP, and weaker enthusiasm around some mega caps such as NVDA and TSLA. These are simply aggregated impressions from public comment streams and should always be cross-checked with fundamentals, official filings and personal risk tolerance.

Earnings Calendar: Selected Reports (Week of Dec 9–15)

EARNINGS CONTEXT FACT The Q3 2025 earnings season is winding down. December reports are important mainly for how companies update full-year 2026 guidance in light of Trump tariffs, immigration effects, and the Fed’s rate path. Markets are alert to margin compression warnings in labour-intensive sectors.
DateCompany / TickerSectorEst. EPSKey Watch ItemsSentiment Label
Dec 9 AMDELLEnterprise Tech / Hardware$0.94AI server demand, gross-margin trajectory, 2026 guidance on enterprise spending.Constructive
Dec 10 AMCRWDCybersecurity / SaaS$0.72ARR growth, net-retention metrics, consolidation of security spend.Constructive
Dec 10 PMLUMNTelecom Infrastructure-$0.08Legacy decline, asset-monetisation progress, ability to pass tariff costs through.Cautious
Dec 11 AMSMCIAI Infrastructure / Hardware$0.61Server shipments, GPU demand durability, supply-chain normalisation.Positive momentum
Dec 11 PMTSLAEV / Automotive$0.66Delivery trends, gross-margin impact of pricing, progress on new products, tariff sensitivities.Cautious
Dec 12 AMADBESoftware / Creative Cloud$3.18Adoption of AI features, pricing power, enterprise stabilisation post regulatory concerns.Constructive
Dec 12 PMUBERGig Economy / Mobility$0.43Unit-economics in delivery, profitability trajectory, wage-inflation pass-through.Constructive
Dec 13 AMRKLBSpace / Launch$-0.09Competitive pricing, contract pipeline and government-spending visibility.Mixed
Dec 13 PMMSTRBitcoin-Linked ExposureN/ABitcoin holdings mark-to-market, regulatory commentary, treasury strategy.Highly volatile
Dec 15 AMHRIBiotech / Small Cap$-0.15Trial progress, cash-burn profile, clarity on pipeline milestones.Speculative
EARNINGS SEASON OBSERVATION PERSONAL VIEW From public estimates and guidance, AI-related infrastructure and software names show strong growth expectations but may face margin pressure from competition and component costs. In contrast, segments like legacy telecom and parts of the EV space are more exposed to guidance cuts. Comments here are meant as an analytical framework and not as earnings trades or recommendations.

FDA Catalysts: Key Approval Decisions (Week of Dec 9–15)

KEY CONTEXT FACT December 2025 includes numerous scheduled FDA decisions. The week of Dec 9–15 concentrates several approvals and resubmissions that could materially move related biotech equities. Priority reviews and orphan-drug designations can affect expectations but do not guarantee outcomes.
December 11, 2025
BLUJEPA (Gepotidacin) – sBLA
Company: GSK plc
Indication: Expanded use for uncomplicated urogenital gonorrhoea in patients aged 12+.
Significance: Antibiotic-resistance trends create potential pricing power for novel agents. GSK builds out its gonorrhoea franchise with a first-in-class agent in this category.
December 12, 2025
ORLADEYO (berotralstat) – NDA
Company: BioCryst Pharmaceuticals (BCRX)
Indication: Hereditary angioedema (HAE) prophylaxis in paediatric patients aged 2–11 years.
Significance: Ultra-rare orphan disease with limited options. Paediatric expansion could open additional market share but market reaction will depend on label details and commercial execution.
December 13, 2025
CARDAMYST (ivabradine) – Resubmitted NDA
Company: Milestone Pharmaceuticals
Indication: Paroxysmal supraventricular tachycardia (PSVT).
Significance: Resubmission following a prior Complete Response Letter. PSVT remains an under-served subset within arrhythmia care. Approval would validate the formulation and strategy; rejection would highlight the risk of relying on single-asset stories.
December 14, 2025
UPLIZNA (inebilizumab) – sBLA
Company: Amgen
Indication: Generalised myasthenia gravis (gMG).
Significance: Expansion of Amgen’s immunology portfolio into gMG; large-pharma infrastructure could support rapid uptake if approved.
December 15, 2025
ZOLIFLODACIN – NDA
Company: Innoviva (INVA)
Indication: Uncomplicated gonorrhoea in adults and patients aged 12+.
Significance: Major event: first-in-class spiropyrimidinetrione oral antibiotic with Priority Review and QIDP designation. Given the antibiotic-resistance backdrop, this decision could be important both medically and for Innoviva’s profile. Market reactions are highly dependent on the exact label and any safety language in the approval or rejection.
FDA DECISIONS OBSERVATION PERSONAL VIEW This week’s FDA calendar leans heavily toward infectious disease, orphan-disease expansions and arrhythmia management. The Zoliflodacin decision for INVA stands out as a focal point for traders following infectious-disease pipelines. Historically, biotech indices can show 2–5% swings around clusters of high-profile approvals or setbacks, but each case is path-dependent. Nothing in this section should be read as a probability estimate or as a trade idea.
Important Legal and Risk Disclaimer – USA, EU and Italy

Purpose of this report: This document is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument. All views expressed are personal market observations based on public data as of December 6, 2025. Markets can change rapidly; the information may become outdated or incomplete.

Regulatory perspective (USA – SEC/FINRA): The author is not a registered investment adviser, broker-dealer, or research analyst. Any forward-looking statements are inherently uncertain and involve risks as described in companies’ official SEC filings (10-K, 10-Q, 8-K, S-1 and similar). This report is intended to be consistent with general anti-fraud and fair-disclosure principles but it is not a regulated research product. Readers should always refer to original SEC filings and official company communications for primary information.

EU / ESMA / MiFID II and CONSOB considerations: For readers in the European Union and in Italy, this document is classified as personal market commentary from a private trader and not as “investment research” or “investment advice” under MiFID II. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or risk profile. In Italy, any investment decision should be discussed with a financial advisor or intermediary authorised and supervised by CONSOB. This report is not a substitute for the suitability and appropriateness checks required by European regulation.

Conflicts of interest and holdings: The author may hold, or have held, positions (long or short) in some of the securities mentioned. No guarantee is given that any position will be disclosed in real time or kept up to date. Nothing in this report should be interpreted as a signal to mirror any position or strategy. Always make independent decisions.

Data quality and sources: Market data and examples are derived from public sources such as SEC filings, company press releases, official FDA calendars, central-bank communications, and reputable news outlets (for example Bloomberg, Reuters, major financial media) together with sentiment data from retail communities (Reddit, Stocktwits, X). While care is taken to cross-check information, errors or omissions are possible. If you notice a factual error, you are invited to report it so it can be corrected.

High-risk segments warning: Biotech, small caps, event-driven trades and derivative strategies can involve very high volatility, rapid gaps and total loss of capital. Binary FDA events, earnings surprises and macro shocks can result in intraday moves of 30–50% or more. These dynamics are described here only as examples; they are not an invitation to participate in such trades.

Avvertenza Importante su Rischi e Regolamentazione – USA, UE e Italia

Finalità del rapporto: Questo documento ha finalità esclusivamente informative e didattiche. Non costituisce consulenza in materia di investimenti, raccomandazione, offerta o sollecitazione all’acquisto o alla vendita di strumenti finanziari. Le opinioni espresse sono osservazioni personali di mercato, basate su dati pubblici disponibili al 6 dicembre 2025. I mercati possono cambiare rapidamente; le informazioni possono diventare rapidamente superate o incomplete.

Prospettiva regolamentare (USA – SEC/FINRA): L’autore non è un consulente finanziario registrato, né un analista o intermediario abilitato. Eventuali affermazioni di tipo prospettico sono intrinsecamente incerte e comportano rischi come descritto nei documenti ufficiali depositati presso la SEC (10-K, 10-Q, 8-K, S-1 e simili). Questo rapporto è inteso per essere coerente con i principi generali di trasparenza e correttezza informativa, ma non è ricerca regolamentata. Per le informazioni primarie occorre sempre fare riferimento ai documenti ufficiali delle società.

MiFID II, ESMA e CONSOB (Italia/Europa): Per i lettori europei e in particolare italiani, questo documento va inteso come commento personale di mercato da parte di un trader privato e non come “ricerca in materia di investimenti” o “consulenza in materia di investimenti” ai sensi della MiFID II. Non tiene conto degli obiettivi, della situazione finanziaria, né del profilo di rischio del singolo lettore. In Italia, ogni decisione di investimento dovrebbe essere discussa con un consulente finanziario o intermediario autorizzato e vigilato da CONSOB. Questo rapporto non sostituisce i questionari di adeguatezza e appropriatezza previsti dalla normativa.

Conflitti di interesse e posizioni personali: L’autore può detenere, o avere detenuto, posizioni (lunghe o corte) su alcuni dei titoli citati. Non vi è alcuna garanzia che tali posizioni vengano comunicate in tempo reale o mantenute aggiornate. Nulla di quanto scritto deve essere interpretato come invito a replicare posizioni o strategie.

Qualità dei dati e fonti: I dati di mercato e gli esempi riportati derivano da fonti pubbliche quali documenti SEC, comunicati stampa ufficiali delle società, calendari FDA, comunicazioni delle banche centrali e testate finanziarie primarie (ad esempio Bloomberg, Reuters, principali media finanziari), oltre a dati di sentiment provenienti da community retail (Reddit, Stocktwits, X). Pur cercando di verificare le informazioni, errori e omissioni sono possibili. Se rilevi un errore fattuale, ogni segnalazione è benvenuta per poterlo correggere.

Avvertenza su segmenti ad alto rischio: Biotech, small cap, strategie event-driven e strumenti derivati possono comportare volatilità molto elevata, gap improvvisi e perdita totale del capitale investito. Gli eventi binari (FDA, earnings, shock macro) possono generare movimenti intraday del 30–50% o più. Questi aspetti sono descritti qui solo a titolo di esempio e non come invito a partecipare a operazioni di questo tipo.

Tools, Research Partners and Support

The tools below are those I personally use to read the market: screeners, research platforms, charting and sentiment dashboards. Links may include referral or affiliate tracking; using them costs you nothing extra and helps keep Merlintrader trading Blog free for readers.

Strumenti, Partner di Ricerca e Supporto

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Finviz – Screener and Heatmaps

High-level market view, sector heatmaps and stock screeners, including many of the tickers mentioned in this report.

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Fundamental and earnings-driven deep dives, transcripts and quant ratings, useful as a complement to this type of weekly overview.

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Stocktwits icon Stocktwits – Retail Sentiment Stream

Real-time stream of trader comments and sentiment labels for many of the most mentioned stocks in this report.

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Medved Trader – Active Trading Platform

Advanced charting, tape reading and order-routing platform used for intraday management of many of the strategies discussed on Merlintrader trading Blog.

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Author’s note (EN)

In every report I share things as I personally interpret them, based on raw data from official filings, company communications and primary verified sources where available. I do not write to promote enthusiasm or pessimism; these are simply my own views as a trader like you, not as a professional analyst. Market sentiment can shift quickly. Official documents and numbers remain what they are.

It is also possible for me to make mistakes: collecting and cross-checking FDA timelines, clinical data, filings and corporate updates is complex, so inaccuracies may occur. If you spot something that looks off, feel free to let me know and I will correct it. Remember that I am not a professional; do not expect perfection here, only transparency, data and consistent effort.

Nota dell’autore (IT)

In ogni report condivido ciò che vedo e come lo interpreto personalmente, partendo da dati grezzi provenienti da documenti ufficiali, comunicazioni societarie e fonti primarie verificate quando disponibili. Non scrivo per creare entusiasmo o pessimismo; sono semplicemente le mie opinioni da trader come te, non da analista professionista. Il sentiment di mercato può cambiare molto rapidamente; i documenti ufficiali e i numeri rimangono quelli che sono.

È anche possibile che commetta errori: raccogliere e incrociare cronologie FDA, dati clinici, filing e aggiornamenti societari è un lavoro complesso, quindi qualche imprecisione può sfuggire. Se noti qualcosa che non ti torna, segnalamelo e farò il possibile per correggerlo. Ricorda che non sono un professionista: non aspettarti perfezione, ma trasparenza, dati e impegno costante.

Authors: Merlintrader and Jane.

Wall Street Weekly Report – Personal Market Observations Rapporto Settimanale di Wall Street – Osservazioni Personali di Mercato

Week of December 9–15, 2025 | Educational content only – not investment advice. Settimana 9–15 dicembre 2025 | Contenuto didattico – non è consulenza di investimento.

© 2025 Merlintrader trading Blog. All rights reserved. Data as of December 6, 2025. © 2025 Merlintrader trading Blog. Tutti i diritti riservati. Dati aggiornati al 6 dicembre 2025.