Merlintrader Trading Pub
Biotech catalyst, news and analysis PDUFA tracker
Merlintrader Trading Pub
Biotech catalyst, news and analysis PDUFA tracker
AI transparency: articles and reports are produced with the help of artificial intelligence and checked through a process that does not constitute specialist validation. They may contain errors: verify relevant information with independent sources. Read the full disclaimer.
Merlintrader Learning Library
Merlintrader Educational Library
The guides that sit underneath the reports: how an FDA date is read, how a company with no revenue is valued, what happens to the capital when a raise arrives, what moves a price with no news at all, and which mistakes repeat every cycle. Search by word or filter by theme. Educational and informational content, not investment advice.
34 guides across 6 themes, plus the service pages.
7 guides
FDA, catalysts and clinical data
How the dates and the documents are readThe regulatory path read on the documents: what a PDUFA date actually says, what a complete response letter changes, how a trial result is read before a stock price tells the story for you.
PDUFA dates and FDA reviewsWhat a PDUFA date is, how the review works and which outcomes are possible.
CRL 101: complete response lettersWhat a Complete Response Letter contains and what happens after one.
How to read clinical trial resultsEndpoints, significance, control arm: how a data release is read.
Biotech catalyst trading guideThe event day from the start: preparation, tape, risk management.
Priority review vouchers explainedHow an FDA approval becomes a sellable asset, with the prices on record.
Betting on the FDA: prediction marketsHow Kalshi biotech prediction markets work and where their limits are.
Biotech and trading glossaryThe words that come back in every report: PDUFA, FDA, small cap, endpoint.
Back to search4 guides
Valuation, cash and capital structure
The numbers before the narrativeWhat a company with no revenue is worth, how long the cash lasts, what happens to the shares already outstanding when new ones arrive, and how much an analyst target is really worth.
Biotech valuation frameworkProbability of success, addressable market, discount rate: how an estimate is built.
Dilution, ATM offerings, PIPE deals and reverse splitsThe capital operations of a small cap, taken one at a time.
Analyst price targets in biotechWhy the most quoted number in a research note is the least informative one.
Biotech due diligence checklistThe red and green flags to run through before reading anything else.
Back to search7 guides
RunUP Biotech strategy
The house method, written out in fullRunUP Biotech is the official Merlintrader strategy: how a watchlist is built around events, how risk is handled when the outcome is binary, and what the method does not promise.
RunUP Biotech strategy guideThe main document: what a run-up is and how it is studied.
RunUP Biotech MasterclassThe long course, with worked examples and event by event risk management.
RunUp Biotech 2026The current edition of the framework for this year.
RunUp Energy 2026The same event logic applied to energy, minerals and nuclear.
Biotech Stocks SagaThe collection of case histories: what actually happened to a series of names.
Biotech trading without the fairy talesRisks, catalysts and reality, including the part that usually gets left out.
Strategia Run Up Biotech (Italian)The Italian language edition of the strategy document.
Back to search6 guides
Sectors explained
How an industry actually worksPieces that start from the industrial mechanism and use company case studies and comparisons: where the value is created along the chain, and where it is consumed instead.
Critical minerals: the race is won in the midstreamWhy separation and refining matter more than the mine itself.
Reusable rockets: the launch economicsCost per launch, cadence and reuse, with a concrete worked example.
Why AI needs opticsThe optical interconnect stack inside the data center.
Drone stocks explainedThe listed drone and counter-drone names, and what each one really does.
ImmunityBio: a storyWhy an FDA approval is the starting line and not the finish.
Outlook Therapeutics: a storyA widely used off-label drug and the road to making it official.
Back to search2 guides
Market structure and compliance
The rules of the venueWhat moves a price without any company news, and what happens when a listing stops meeting the exchange requirements.
Index reconstitution explainedWhy an index recalculation moves volume and price on names with no news.
Nasdaq delisting and compliance 101Minimum bid price, deficiency notices, hearings and the compliance calendar.
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Psychology, bias and market myths
The part that loses the moneyThe mistakes that repeat identically: getting attached to a ticker, mistaking a narrative for a thesis, believing what circulates on social media while the price is going up.
Falling in love with a tickerA field guide to the biases that keep an investor inside a position.
The ten commandments of the traderThe rules of conduct, written short.
The trend is your friendThe most repeated line on the market, taken seriously and checked.
When good news is no longer enoughWhy a stock falls on a positive headline.
Encyclopedia of social trader myths, Vol. 1To be read as soon as the phrase to-da-moon appears.
Encyclopedia of social trader myths, Vol. 2The sequel, with the cliches that return every cycle.
Encyclopedia of social trader myths, Vol. 3The Self-Inflicted Edition: the mistakes traders arrange for themselves.
AI, retail and MerlintraderHow artificial intelligence enters the research, and what it does not do.
Back to searchIndexes, calendars and service pages
Where the material above gets appliedAll Merlintrader Stock Hubs
The complete map of the companies covered, sector by sector.
Biotech Catalyst Calendar
Confirmed dates from primary sources: PDUFA, AdCom, readouts.
The Top Ten Biotech Stocks Right Now
The running selection of the ten biotech names in focus.
Biotech Tools Hub
Where filings, trials and regulatory decisions are read.
Weekly Market Pulse
The weekly read on events, catalysts and earnings.
Daily Briefing
Session context, sector rotation, pressure on the tape.
Merlintrader Blog
Deep dives, radars and single-name reports.
Insider Trading Weekly
Form 4 buys and sells recomputed lot by lot.
Disclaimer. Merlintrader content is published for educational and informational purposes only. It is not personalized investment advice, an investment recommendation, investment research, or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security, and Merlintrader is not a registered investment adviser or broker-dealer with the SEC or FINRA. U.S. small and mid cap stocks can lose their entire value: always check the original filings on SEC EDGAR and the regulatory agencies, and speak to a licensed financial adviser before investing. Full disclaimer.
