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Merlintrader Trading Pub
Biotech catalyst, news and analysis PDUFA tracker
AI transparency: articles and reports are produced with the help of artificial intelligence and checked through a process that does not constitute specialist validation. They may contain errors: verify relevant information with independent sources. Read the full disclaimer.
Oct 28, 2026
Q reports updated shares and unused ATM capacity
NYSE: $BBAISecure AI · government customersQ3 results reportedCash consumption and dilution risk
BBAI Stock Hub: BigBear.ai News, Secure AI and Government Contracts
BigBear.ai reported Q3 revenue of $43.581 million and raised 2026 revenue guidance to $150–165 million. Acquired growth and better gross margins have not yet produced positive operating cash flow: Q3 operating cash use was $9.550 million. At September 30, cash and current and non-current investments totaled $398.975 million, excluding restricted cash. The next disclosed capital-structure dates are December 7 warrant expiry and December 15 note maturity.
Research Library
The complete BBAI research report
21 pages · Research as of October 28, 2026 · Dated snapshot
Next dated capital-structure event · disclosed terms
IPO warrants expire · December 7, 2026
The remaining 2026 notes mature on December 15. Q3 results were already announced October 27 and the quarterly filing followed October 28; these are completed events. Form 10-Q →
What to follow meanwhile: funded contract conversion and operating cash use.
BBAI daily chart
BBAI stock: dated key data
Closing price
$2.35
NYSE · October 27, 2026.
Calculated market value
~$1.131B
October 27 close × 481,390,957 shares reported as of October 23.
Common shares
481.391M
10-Q cover · October 23, 2026; 480.428M at September 30.
Cash and investments
$398.975M
September 30, 2026; includes non-current investments and excludes restricted cash.
Q3 revenue
$43.581M
Quarter ended September 30, 2026; up 31% year over year.
Q3 adjusted EBITDA
−$9.080M
Non-GAAP loss · quarter ended September 30, 2026.
Funded backlog
$76.490M
Of $330.125M total at September 30; about 23.2%, calculated.
Shares sold short
136.50M
October 15, 2026 settlement; 6.76 days to cover.
Financial, share-count and backlog data: September 30 Form 10-Q and Q3 results release. Dated price: Nasdaq historical series; short interest: FINRA. Market value is calculated, excludes unissued securities and is not a live valuation.
Where BigBear.ai stands now
Ask Sage, acquired in December 2025, contributes to the transition from specialized government services toward software and generative AI. Q3 revenue and gross margin improved year over year, but the quarter still used operating cash. The distinction between total contract value, funded backlog and recognized revenue remains central.
Main risk: Headline awards can include unexercised options and ceiling values. They are not all funded revenue. Acquisitions, operating losses and potential new shares can absorb financial resources before product demand produces per-share progress.
Constructive case
Cash and investments provide flexibility. Repeat deployments, funded renewals, durable margins and better collections would support the case that the acquired technology can scale beyond project work.
Cautious case
Slow funding or weak retention could leave costs ahead of adoption. Further acquisitions and ATM issuance could consume resources or dilute ownership, while non-cash impairment illustrates the risk of acquisition expectations failing to hold.
BBAI stock news: six latest updates
Oct 28, 2026
10-Q reports updated shares and unused ATM capacity
The cover reports 481,390,957 shares as of October 23, versus 480,428,208 at September 30. The filing records no ATM issuance in the first nine months and says all 100 million shares under the 2026 program remained available at September 30. Capacity is not issued equity.
Oct 27, 2026
Q3 results and higher 2026 revenue guidance
Revenue was $43.581 million, adjusted EBITDA a $9.080 million loss and operating cash use $9.550 million. Net loss included a $76.737 million non-cash goodwill impairment. Management raised revenue guidance to $150–165 million from $135–165 million; guidance is not guaranteed sales.
Oct 14, 2026
CFO filing reports tax withholding
The CFO reported 34,050 shares withheld at $2.39 for taxes on vested equity, leaving 551,852 shares held directly. Code F is a tax-settlement transaction, not a discretionary market purchase or sale.
Oct 13, 2026
More than $225 million in contract awards since July
The company reported awards across homeland security, defense, intelligence and federal civilian customers. The total contract value includes unexercised options and ceiling values and does not necessarily reflect funded amounts. Awards, backlog and revenue measure different stages.
Sep 15, 2026
Director resignation follows August appointment
A director resigned September 15 without a reported disagreement over operations, policies or practices. A retired Army lieutenant general had joined the board August 13. These are governance developments, separate from contract execution.
Jul 31, 2026
ATM agreement permits up to 100 million shares
The Jefferies agreement allows sales of up to 100 million shares, with commission of up to 3%. The company is not obliged to sell. The subsequent September 30 filing reports the full capacity still available at that date.
BBAI stock catalysts: dated milestones
- December 7, 2026 · IPO-warrant expiryDisclosed contractual terms
Expiry under the warrant terms described in the September 30 filing. Expiry is not a forecast of exercise or price.
- December 15, 2026 · Remaining 2026 notes matureDisclosed contractual terms
The filing reports $17.668 million principal for these notes; the $16.685 million net carrying amount is a different accounting measure.
- Full year 2026 · Revenue outlook of $150–165 millionCompany guidance
Updated October 27; a forecast subject to contract timing and execution, not a scheduled results-release date.
Government contracts: funding matters more than ceilings
Awards
Total contract value
The October announcement’s $225M-plus headline includes unexercised options and ceiling values. It does not establish immediate funded revenue.
Backlog
$330.125M total
At September 30, $76.490M was funded, about 23.2% by calculation. The remainder includes unfunded work and options, with different conversion risks.
Operations
Revenue and cash conversion
Recognized sales do not equal collected cash. Q3 operating cash use was $9.550M despite higher reported revenue.
BBAI cash, acquisition accounting and share dilution
September 30 cash of $77.112M, current investments of $208.678M and non-current investments of $113.185M total $398.975M, excluding $1.687M restricted cash. Cash plus current investments alone is $285.790M. These measures should not be interchanged.
The $76.737M goodwill impairment is non-cash and the release does not allocate it to a specific acquisition. Ask Sage contributes acquired growth; measuring organic demand and funded renewals remains necessary. The 100M-share ATM capacity could finance operations while enlarging the ownership denominator if used.
Merlintrader Health Score · BBAI
3.2out of 5
Assessment retained from the October 28, 2026 hub: weighted score 3.20/5, based on dated financial and market observations. It describes operational and financial robustness, not valuation, a price target or a recommendation.
BBAI red flags
- Contract value, funded backlog and recognized revenue are different measures.
- Government budgets, procurement timing and renewals can delay conversion.
- Negative operating cash flow despite Q3 revenue growth.
- Acquisition integration and goodwill-impairment risk.
- Potential ATM issuance and equity awards can dilute shareholders.
- December warrant expiry and note maturity are contractual events, not assurances about their outcome.
BBAI Stock FAQ: BigBear.ai Questions Answered
When is the next BBAI stock catalyst?
BigBear.ai’s next dated capital-structure event is IPO-warrant expiry on December 7, 2026, followed by maturity of its remaining 2026 notes on December 15. The notes have $17.668 million principal outstanding. Q3 results were already announced October 27. Warrant and debt terms. Completed Q3 results.
How much revenue does BigBear.ai make, and is it profitable?
BigBear.ai reported $43.581 million revenue and a $91.854 million net loss for the quarter ended September 30, 2026, including a $76.737 million non-cash goodwill impairment. Adjusted EBITDA loss was $9.080 million. Management raised 2026 revenue guidance to $150–165 million; quarterly operating cash use was $9.550 million. Quarterly results and guidance. Operating cash flow.
How much cash does BigBear.ai have, and how long will it last?
BigBear.ai held $398.975 million cash and current and non-current investments at September 30, 2026, excluding $1.687 million restricted cash. Cash plus current investments alone was $285.790 million. Q3 operating cash use of $9.550 million and the December note repayment show the near-term demands on those resources. Liquidity and cash flows. Quarterly cash flow.
Is BBAI stock at risk of dilution?
Yes: BigBear.ai’s September 30, 2026 filing reports all 100 million shares of its 2026 ATM program still available for sale. Those shares had not been issued under that program at quarter-end. Employee awards and other convertible instruments can also expand the common-share base. ATM availability and capital structure.
When does BigBear.ai report earnings?
BigBear.ai announced Q3 2026 results on October 27, 2026 and filed its quarterly report October 28. As of November 2, the company had not announced its next earnings date; its full-year revenue guidance is $150–165 million. Latest earnings release. Company announcements.
What does BigBear.ai do?
BigBear.ai supplies AI software, decision-support, security and engineering services to government and commercial customers. Its Ask Sage platform adds secure generative AI, while its broader products support intelligence, defense, border security, digital identity and operational planning. Business overview.
Does BigBear.ai’s contract-award headline mean immediate revenue?
No: BigBear.ai’s October 2026 announcement of more than $225 million in awards includes unexercised options and ceiling values. At September 30, funded backlog was $76.490 million out of $330.125 million total. Funding, delivery and recognition determine when awarded work becomes revenue. Contract-award announcement. Funded and total backlog.
Primary sources
Disclaimer. This content is published by Merlintrader for educational and informational purposes only. It is independent journalism and research. It does not constitute investment advice, an investment recommendation, an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any security, and it is not a research report within the meaning of applicable United States securities regulation. Nothing here should be read as a recommendation to buy, sell or hold $BBAI or any other security.
Figures are taken from public filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, company press releases and market-data providers, and are stated with their reference dates. Data can change without notice, and figures published before a results release become outdated the moment that release is issued. Merlintrader makes no representation that the information is complete or current at the time of reading. Readers should verify every figure against the primary source before acting on it.
Defense, space and technology companies carry procurement, execution, regulatory and financing risks. Government orders can be delayed or cancelled, production can exceed budget, export restrictions can limit sales, and acquisitions may fail to produce the expected returns. Contract announcements do not guarantee profitable deliveries or cash collection. Additional borrowing or equity issuance can increase obligations or dilute existing shareholders. Investors can lose part or all of their capital. Every reader is responsible for their own decisions and should consult a licensed financial adviser where appropriate.
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