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MERLINTRADER · SPACE, DEFENSE & AI
$PL $RKLB $SATL $LUNR: Space Stocks After the Selloff
Four companies, four different races. Price resilience, operating progress and funding needs do not produce the same ranking.
The selloff is real. The companies are not interchangeable.
Over Finviz’s three-month window, declines range from 34.83% for SATL to 49.56% for LUNR. That describes this four-stock basket, not an index of the entire space sector. A price decline alone cannot tell us whether execution deteriorated, expectations were too high, or both.
Prices and performance use Finviz’s September 4 snapshot; company financial data use the dated primary sources below. Finviz chart images are loaded from Finviz and may show newer data than the September 4 market snapshot.
$PL · Planet Labs
Close 4 Sep$18.12
3 months-43.76%
Year to date-8.11%
Q2 revenue$116.1M
Adj. EBITDA Q2+$13.9M
Cash / liquidity$865.4M
PL: quarter ended July 31; others June 30. PL/RKLB liquidity includes short-term investments; SATL/LUNR cash and equivalents.
Finviz target: $35.82 · +97.7% vs. September 4 close · Compare analyst targets ↓
Explore the $PL hub: news, financials and risks →$RKLB · Rocket Lab
Close 4 Sep$64.26
3 months-41.62%
Year to date-7.88%
Q2 revenue$234.1M
Adj. EBITDA Q2−$8.8M
Cash / liquidity$2,387.6M
PL: quarter ended July 31; others June 30. PL/RKLB liquidity includes short-term investments; SATL/LUNR cash and equivalents.
Finviz target: $113.76 · +77.0% vs. September 4 close · Compare analyst targets ↓
Explore the $RKLB hub: news, financials and risks →$SATL · Satellogic
Close 4 Sep$4.64
3 months-34.83%
Year to date+148.13%
Q2 revenue$15.9M
Adj. EBITDA Q2+$2.8M
Cash / liquidity$112.8M
PL: quarter ended July 31; others June 30. PL/RKLB liquidity includes short-term investments; SATL/LUNR cash and equivalents.
Finviz target: $10.20 · +119.8% vs. September 4 close · Compare analyst targets ↓
Explore the $SATL hub: news, financials and risks →$LUNR · Intuitive Machines
Close 4 Sep$14.81
3 months-49.56%
Year to date-8.75%
Q2 revenue$206.2M
Adj. EBITDA Q2−$13.8M
Cash / liquidity$367.4M
PL: quarter ended July 31; others June 30. PL/RKLB liquidity includes short-term investments; SATL/LUNR cash and equivalents.
Finviz target: $31.00 · +109.3% vs. September 4 close · Compare analyst targets ↓
Explore the $LUNR hub: news, financials and risks →What the price comparison says
| Ticker | 1 month | 3 months | From 52-week high | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PL | -20.25% | -43.76% | -64.99% | -8.11% |
| RKLB | -15.08% | -41.62% | -57.44% | -7.88% |
| SATL | -7.94% | -34.83% | -61.33% | +148.13% |
| LUNR | -0.80% | -49.56% | -68.32% | -8.75% |
Source: linked Finviz snapshots. The 52-week peak is each stock’s own intraday high, not a common starting date or a maximum-drawdown calculation.
SATL leads over three months and year to date. LUNR holds up best over one month. RKLB is the least distant from its own 52-week high. The answer changes with the measurement window; none of these measures establishes which company is cheapest.
Four operating stories
PL: a stronger quarter still needs repeatability
Planet sells imagery, data and satellite services. Fiscal Q2 2027 ended July 31 with record revenue and positive adjusted EBITDA. Its 10-Q confirms growth across all three customer categories, with defense and intelligence at 69.8% of revenue. The key question is how much of the acceleration repeats.
Q3 revenue guidance of $101–105M sits below the reported quarter; backlog fell to $814.9M and planned capital expenditure increased. Liquidity also includes proceeds from selling shares. A strong quarter and a weak share price can coexist.
Watch: order conversion, renewals and cash after capital expenditure.
RKLB: greater industrial scale, with costly milestones ahead
Rocket Lab combines launch services and space systems. It reports the largest quarterly revenue and backlog of these four, with a $2.36B order book. Electron’s 94th mission is completed execution. Neutron remains in development: targeted delivery to the pad in Q4 is not a successful maiden flight.
Adjusted EBITDA remains negative. The Iridium transaction adds financing and integration questions, alongside its closing conditions. Two Space Force delivery orders totaling $12M are awarded work; consortium membership does not turn the rest of the network into contracted revenue.
Watch: Neutron milestones, backlog conversion and final Iridium transaction terms.
SATL: relative price resilience, on a much smaller base
Satellogic has the smallest three-month decline in this snapshot and the largest year-to-date gain. Its first positive quarterly operating income is tangible progress. Its scale is much smaller: Q2 revenue is less than one tenth of Rocket Lab’s or Intuitive Machines’ revenue.
Space Systems deliveries can make revenue uneven; operating cash flow remains negative. SynMax supplies a commercial channel for Merlin, with the first launch targeted for October and customer rollout from 2027. Those remain future milestones rather than already earned revenue.
Watch: Merlin launch execution, recurring data sales and liquidity.
LUNR: a resilient month, but the weakest quarter
Intuitive Machines nearly held its month-earlier price, yet has the largest three-month decline in the group. Its business expanded substantially: the annual comparison includes Lanteris and does not measure organic growth alone. Reported backlog is about $1.76B.
Q2 adjusted EBITDA turned negative and free cash flow was −$83.9M. The September 1 order for two IM 300 platforms expands the customer base but discloses neither value nor delivery date. Revenue growth still needs to become margin and cash collection.
Watch: integration, deliveries, cash and mission progress; distinguish total program value from funded work.
Where analysts place their price targets
Retrieved September 7, 2026; values in USD. Finviz and TipRanks are aggregators: their consensus figures remain separate because coverage and updates may differ. TipRanks describes its 12-month consensus as based on targets issued in the past three months; counts and ranges below follow its forecast/FAQ summary.
| Ticker | Finviz target | Gap vs. price¹ | TipRanks average | TipRanks low–high | TipRanks analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PL | $35.82 | +97.7% | $37.20 | $25.00–$51.00 | 10 |
| RKLB | $113.76 | +77.0% | $108.88 | $60.00–$135.00 | 17 |
| SATL | $10.20 | +119.8% | $10.08 | $9.00–$11.00 | 5 |
| LUNR | $31.00 | +109.3% | $29.29 | $13.00–$45.00 | 8 |
¹ Editorial calculation: Finviz target / Finviz September 4 close − 1. TipRanks displays percentages based on different reference prices; these have not been copied. A target is an estimate, not an assured return or a probability of gains. TipRanks’ PL monthly trend shows a different count; this table uses its forecast/FAQ summary without combining the series.
Selected individual analyst views
Selected analysts and research firms reported by TipRanks, with update dates. This is not a reliability ranking or the full coverage universe; original broker reports were not accessed. Buy/Sell labels are those displayed by the aggregator.
PL
Ryan Koontz · Needham · Buy · $40 · 2026-09-04
Jeff Van Rhee · Craig-Hallum · Buy · $35 · 2026-09-04
RKLB
Michael Filatov · Berenberg · Buy · $83 · 2026-09-01
Ronald Epstein · BofA Securities · Buy · $110 · 2026-08-30
SATL
Suji Desilva · Roth MKM · Buy · $10 · 2026-08-06
Andres Sheppard · Cantor Fitzgerald · Buy · $9 · 2026-08-05
LUNR
Jonathan Siegmann · Stifel · Buy · $26 · 2026-08-14
Ronald Epstein · BofA Securities · Sell · $13 · 2026-08-30
The next test: what each company must demonstrate
Our execution framework separates the company’s stated milestone from the evidence we would use to assess it. The implications of delays below are editorial analysis, not company forecasts.
PL — From orbital capacity to repeatable revenue
Next stepThe next test runs through both the fleet and the factory. Planet’s September 3 release targets manufacturing in Berlin during 2026 and reports Tanager-2 and 18 SuperDoves shipped to the launch site. Shipment, launch, commissioning and commercial availability are separate milestones: the first does not establish the others.
Evidence to watchLook for production and service-readiness confirmations, followed by renewals, new contracts and collections. AI can make the data easier to use; the economic test is whether customers pay and stay, rather than whether an app is released.
If execution slipsDelays could push monetization out while investment continues. Reading orders, revenue and cash flow together helps distinguish timing issues from weakening demand.
Company source: PL
RKLB — Neutron must pass its tests; Iridium its closing conditions
Next stepFor Neutron, the sequence to watch includes hardware qualification, engine testing, integration and pad readiness. The August 10-Q targets arrival at the pad in Q4 2026 and warns that the window for a year-end launch is narrowing. Iridium’s September 24 shareholder vote is a scheduled date; it is not the acquisition closing.
Evidence to watchLook for test results and completed milestones, alongside clarity on financing and closing conditions. After a first flight, the next test would be repeatability at a sustainable production and launch cadence.
If execution slipsA delay can extend spending ahead of new-vehicle revenue. A completed acquisition would add another test: integrating operations and debt while continuing to deliver existing programs.
Company source: RKLB · Iridium proxy
SATL — Merlin: from launch to a paying customer
Next stepThe first launch is targeted for October 2026; SynMax places customer rollout in 2027 as the constellation expands. Commissioning, image quality and Theia integration sit between those milestones. One satellite in orbit does not establish daily global coverage.
Evidence to watchLook for usable capacity, activated services and growth in data revenue. Commercial exclusivity identifies a distribution channel; it does not, by itself, disclose minimum volumes, pricing or guaranteed revenue.
If execution slipsA slipped schedule could leave spending ahead of monetization for longer. At this scale, the capital needed to reach commercial service matters alongside the technical quality of the product.
Company source: SATL
LUNR — From orders to delivery, and from delivery to cash
Next stepExecution spans integration of the enlarged business, spacecraft production and mission progress. No delivery deadline is disclosed for the two-platform IM 300 order. It should therefore not become a quarterly revenue forecast; mission assessment should follow official hardware and flight-readiness updates.
Evidence to watchLook for customer acceptance of deliveries, contract margins and improving operating cash flow. Distinguishing large potential program values from actual spending authorizations remains essential.
If execution slipsDelays or additional costs can squeeze margins and defer collections even with a large backlog. Successful integration should make the business more predictable, rather than merely increase reported revenue.
The next 6–12 months: milestones, not promises
Monitoring horizon from September 7, 2026. Only disclosed dates and targets are listed; a 2027 rollout is not a commitment to completion within this horizon. Operational timing relies on company disclosures; where a separate counterparty or filing is available, it is linked.
| Company | When | Status | What to verify |
|---|---|---|---|
| PL | During 2026 | Company target | Berlin manufacturing start; confirm actual operations, then deliveries. |
| RKLB / Iridium | September 24, 2026 | Scheduled meeting | Shareholder vote; acquisition closing conditions remain separate. |
| RKLB / Neutron | Q4 2026 | Company target | Arrival at the pad; not a guaranteed launch date. |
| SATL / Merlin | October 2026 → from 2027 | Company targets | First launch → progressive Theia customer rollout. |
| LUNR / IM 300 | No disclosed date | Timing unavailable | Delivery and customer acceptance; do not assign revenue to a quarter. |
Who is ahead?
Our reading: SATL leads relative share-price performance over three months; RKLB leads reported industrial scale; PL offers a clearer test of recurring data economics alongside satellite services; LUNR must prove that its enlarged perimeter turns into cash. These are different tests, not a buy-or-sell ranking.
The next useful comparison will ask whether revenue became cash, whether customers renewed, whether promised hardware flew and whether progress required more shares. Backlog definitions differ, adjusted EBITDA is not cash flow, and acquisitions can inflate annual growth comparisons. Those distinctions matter more than a single rebound session.
Additional company announcements: RKLB / SDN · Electron 94 · SynMax / Merlin · IM 300