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Merlintrader’s Daily Briefing

Tuesday, August 4, 2026, morning edition. Prices are Monday’s New York closes unless stated. The Dow closed at a record after President Trump called off strikes on Iran and opened talks on the Strait of Hormuz, and crude gave back about five percent in the session. Palantir then delivered the quarter of the year after the bell: revenue up 93% to $1.94 billion, US commercial up 149%, full-year guidance lifted above $8.15 billion, and the shares up roughly 10% in after-hours trade. Brent has since recovered about 1.4% in Asia, the yen is still holding its intervention gains, and the September policy debate is about a hike rather than a cut. AMD and SpaceX report tonight; Friday’s payrolls report is the week’s real test.

• Indexes — The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 693.38 points, or 1.32%, to a record close of 53,178.41. The S&P 500 gained 1.48% to 7,600.50 and the Nasdaq Composite added 2.1% to 25,913.9, both finishing near record territory.Wall Street
• Trackers — The S&P 500 fund $SPY closed at $757.67, up 1.42%; the Nasdaq-100 fund $QQQ at $700.07, up 1.76%; the Dow fund $DIA at $531.22, up 1.32%; and the small-cap fund $IWM at $296.22, up 1.72%. Breadth was with the move rather than against it.Tape
• What drove it — Trump said he had called off “massive” strikes on Iran and that negotiations would begin, with Gulf allies including Saudi Arabia pressing for diplomacy. Iran’s foreign ministry said no direct talks with Washington were under way, which is the gap the market has chosen to look through.Geopolitics
• Europe today — Pan-European futures were up 0.3% and German DAX futures 0.2% higher in early trade, both indexes within reach of record highs, with FTSE futures up 0.3%. European closing levels are not yet available.Europe

• $PLTR results — Second-quarter revenue rose 92.8% year on year to $1.94 billion against a consensus near $1.81 billion, with adjusted earnings of $0.41 a share against an estimate in the $0.33–0.35 range. GAAP operating income was $912 million at a 47% margin and adjusted operating income $1.19 billion at a 62% margin.Earnings
• US commercial — The segment that carries the story grew 149% year on year to $764 million. Management raised full-year US commercial guidance to more than $3.424 billion, at least 134% annual growth, from about $3.22 billion previously.Growth
• Guidance — Full-year 2026 revenue guidance moved up to $8.150–8.158 billion, roughly 82% growth, with adjusted operating income of $4.889–4.897 billion and adjusted free cash flow of $4.5–4.7 billion. Third-quarter revenue is guided to $2.160–2.164 billion.Outlook
• Reaction — The shares closed the regular session at $125.65, up 2.10% on 77 million shares, then traded roughly 10–12% higher after hours toward $140. After the first-quarter report the stock fell on a beat, so the guidance raise, not the beat, is what changed the response this time.After hours

• Crude — Brent fell about 5.7% on Monday to roughly $82.92 a barrel and the oil fund $USO closed at $122.12, down 5.46%. Overnight the move partly reversed: Brent was up about 1.4% at $84.93 in the Asian session as traders looked past the promise to hold fire. The energy fund $XLE closed at $58.79, down 1.28%, the only major group lower on the day.Energy
• Treasuries — The 10-year yield eased to about 4.67% as the energy premium came out. The long-bond fund $TLT closed at $82.19, down 0.07%, so the long end did not follow the belly — a term-premium signal that has nothing to do with Hormuz.Bonds
• The Fed — New York Fed President Williams told Reuters he expects inflation to fall through the second half of 2026 and further in 2027, that policy is well positioned, and that the Fed would raise rates if price pressures fail to ease. Markets still price roughly 63% odds of a September hike, and he declined to endorse or reject that pricing.Policy
• Yen — The dollar-yen pair is the live variable after last week’s coordinated Tokyo–Washington intervention, the first joint yen-buying operation since 2011. The 155 level is the next test, and pressure is rebuilding in global bond markets even as the currency holds its gains.FX

• Megacaps — $AMZN closed at $284.02, up 4.58%, crossing a $3 trillion market capitalisation on the back of Friday’s cloud numbers. $MSFT ended at $487.65, up 4.93%, and $GOOGL at $373.51, up 4.88%. $AAPL was the outlier at $303.42, down 1.78%.Big Tech
• $CRWV — CoreWeave closed at $85.76, up 19.49% on 44.6 million shares, the single largest move among large-capitalisation AI names. The company reports on August 11.AI cloud
• Semis — $NVDA closed at $206.64, up 2.93%, $AMD at $484.64, up 1.78%, $MU at $829.50, up 0.79% and $AVGO at $392.23, up 0.76%. The semiconductor fund $SMH added 0.91%, lagging the Nasdaq by more than a point.Semis
• Washington and AI — Meta, Anthropic, OpenAI and Google have been invited to meet White House officials today to discuss voluntary government safety testing of their most advanced models, following security incidents involving autonomous AI agents.Policy