Merlintrader’s Daily Briefing

Saturday, July 4, 2026 is a full market holiday: U.S. equities are closed for Independence Day and do not reopen until Monday, July 6, so today is about framing the holiday-shortened week and the busy calendar just ahead. The last full session on July 2 left the Dow at a record above 52,900 while the Nasdaq stayed pressured by semiconductors, and Friday’s European session pushed on to fresh highs as the soft U.S. June jobs report eased rate-hike pressure. The week of July 6–10 is light on data but heavy on scheduled catalysts: an OPEC+ output meeting brought forward to Sunday, June FOMC minutes on Wednesday, the first Q2 earnings from PepsiCo and Delta, SpaceX’s record-fast Nasdaq-100 inclusion before the July 7 open, and a Vera Therapeutics FDA decision due July 7. With volumes thin and the tape closed, weekend headlines on oil, rates and geopolitics carry more weight than usual into Monday’s reopen.

• SPY / QQQ / DIA— U.S. markets are closed Saturday for Independence Day and reopen Monday, July 6. The reference point is still the July 2 close, when the Dow finished at a record above 52,900 and the S&P 500 was roughly flat while the Nasdaq lagged on continued semiconductor weakness.Holiday
• Europe— European equities kept climbing in Friday’s session while Wall Street was shut: the pan-European Stoxx 600 rose about 0.7% to a fresh 52-week high, Germany’s DAX added roughly 0.85% and France’s CAC 40 gained about 0.5%, with defensive utilities leading. Softer U.S. jobs data continued to support the rate-relief tone across the region.Global
• Payrolls— June nonfarm payrolls rose just 57,000, well short of expectations near 110,000, with unemployment at 4.2% flattered by a drop in participation to 61.5% and prior months revised lower by a combined 74,000. The report is the backdrop for every rate and rotation debate into the new week.Macro
• Semis— Semiconductors remain the market’s weak link after the SOX index dropped sharply during the holiday-shortened week, giving back part of a quarter in which it had roughly doubled. Whether chips stabilize or extend the AI-valuation reset is the single most important leadership question for Monday.Leadership
• TSLA— Tesla’s Q2 delivery beat at 480,126 vehicles is now digested rather than pending; the stock faded the news last week. Monday’s test is whether buyers defend the reaction or the EV group treats the beat as already priced ahead of the quarterly report.EV

• Fed path— After the soft payrolls print, fed-funds futures cut the odds of a September hike to roughly 51% from about 63%, and trimmed the chance of a move by year-end to about 76% from 83%. A July hike is now seen as unlikely, but the tightening debate is postponed, not settled.Rates
• Treasuries— The reaction in rates was not a clean rally: the two-year yield held near 4.13% while the long end firmed, with the 10-year around 4.48% and the 30-year near 4.99%. Lower hike odds at the front end alongside a firmer long end keeps the curve, not just the Fed, in focus for Monday.Yields
• Oil / WTI— WTI crude drifted to just above $68 a barrel, down close to 20% over two weeks as the geopolitical premium faded. That decline sets up a market already positioned for softer prices heading into the weekend OPEC+ decision.Energy
• DXY / GLD— The softer jobs data leaned on the dollar and supported gold, but the firmer long end complicates the simple rate-relief trade. The cleanest confirmation Monday is a contained dollar and stable credit rather than a dollar move driven by growth fear.Cross-Asset