Biomea Fusion ($BMEA) Stock Hub: First BMF-650 Obesity Topline Due in October 2026

01 Menin, Beta Cells And Why The Mechanism Is Unusual

Menin is a nuclear protein encoded by the MEN1 gene. In oncology it has become a well-known target because it acts as a scaffold for the MLL fusion proteins that drive certain acute leukaemias, and several menin inhibitors have been developed for that purpose. Biomea’s thesis is unrelated to leukaemia. It rests on menin’s second role, as a brake on the turnover and growth of pancreatic beta cells, the cells that make insulin.

Both forms of diabetes end in the same place: too few working beta cells. In type 1 the loss is driven by autoimmune destruction; in type 2 by metabolic stress. Every widely used therapy manages the consequence. Insulin replaces what the pancreas no longer makes. Metformin reduces hepatic glucose output. GLP-1 receptor agonists amplify the insulin signal that remains and suppress appetite. None of them rebuilds the cell population that has been lost, and none of them is designed to be stopped.

Biomea’s proposition, as described in its own materials, is that transient menin inhibition may permit beta-cell recovery, based on preclinical evidence of reversible downmodulation of menin, so that a defined course of treatment produces an effect that persists after dosing ends. The company calls icovamenib a potential beta-cell restorative therapy and, in its October 6, 2025 release, described it as a candidate first non-chronic therapy for type 2 diabetes.

If the mechanism works as described, the commercial shape of the product is unusual: twelve weeks of an oral tablet, then nothing, then a durable improvement in glycaemic control. If it does not, the same shape is a liability, because a treatment that is stopped after twelve weeks has no second chance to show an effect. The clinical evidence for the proposition is discussed in the sections that follow, and the honest summary is that it is real, it is prospectively defined, and it rests on very small numbers of patients.

What Would Falsify This Reading

The analysis rests on Biomea being an asset whose outcome is decided by events rather than by its own resilience. The following developments would materially change that reading.

• Financing that removes the going-concern doubt. The company projects cash runway into the second quarter of 2027, while the quarterly report filed August 5, 2026 states that there is substantial doubt about its ability to continue as a going concern. New capital that lifts that statement would weaken the fragility side of this reading. Source
• Catalyst windows that slip. BMF-650 topline is guided to October 2026 without a fixed day, COVALENT-211 Week 26 data to the first quarter of 2027 and COVALENT-212 to the second quarter of 2027. Delays beyond these company-guided windows would push the readouts toward or past the projected end of the runway. Source Source
• COVALENT-211 data that do not replicate the earlier signal. The efficacy foundation includes small subgroups affected by an earlier clinical hold; replication and longer safety follow-up remain necessary. A Week 26 result that fails to replicate would weaken the constructive case. Positive 52-Week Results release, October 6, 2025 Source
• Warrant exercise before December 20, 2026. The 23,000,000 warrants struck at $2.50 represent $57.5 million of potential gross cash-exercise proceeds. Exercise would change both the funding and the dilution picture; expiry without exercise removes that tranche of overhang and that possible funding source. Source

These are observations that would weaken the interpretation, not forecasts of inevitable events.

02 The Pivot: From Oncology To Diabetes, And What Was Shut Down

Biomea was built as an oncology company. Its first two clinical programmes put BMF-219, the same molecule now called icovamenib, into blood cancers and solid tumours: COVALENT-101 in acute leukaemia, lymphoma and myeloma, registered as NCT05153330 and opened in January 2022, and COVALENT-102 in non-small cell lung, pancreatic and colorectal cancer, registered as NCT05631574 and opened in January 2023. A second molecule, BMF-500, an oral covalent FLT3 inhibitor, entered a Phase I trial in acute leukaemia in July 2023 under NCT05918692.

Both BMF-219 oncology trials now carry the status Terminated on ClinicalTrials.gov as of August 24, 2026. COVALENT-101 enrolled 55 patients across 41 sites; COVALENT-102 enrolled 13 across 23 sites. BMF-500 is listed as completed in the registry update posted September 23, 2026, with 35 actual participants and an actual primary completion date of January 1, 2026, and it does not appear in any company release of 2026. The corporate description has followed the retreat: Biomea now presents itself, in the same sentence in every release since 2025, as a clinical-stage diabetes and obesity company.

03 The June 2024 Clinical Hold And The Damage It Did

In June 2024 the United States Food and Drug Administration placed a clinical hold on Biomea’s diabetes trials. The hold was lifted in September 2024. The company’s annual report for 2025, filed on March 24, 2026, describes the consequence for the type 1 diabetes study in a single sentence: the hold had a profound impact on the COVALENT-112 trial in type 1 diabetes, where over 90% of the targeted patient population was not able to complete dosing due to the clinical hold.

The damage to the type 2 trial was different in kind. COVALENT-111, registered as NCT05731544, carried a registered enrollment of 443 participants, healthy adults included, of whom 267 had received at least one dose of icovamenib and were counted in the modified intent-to-treat population. When the company reported the study, it did not analyse all 267. The October 6, 2025 release states that the topline efficacy analysis covered the 163 patients who had completed at least 80 per cent of their planned dosing before the hold, without other significant protocol deviations, and who were on one or more antihyperglycaemic agents at baseline.

04 COVALENT-111: The Data Everything Rests On

COVALENT-111 is the study everything else is built on. It was a double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled trial in adults diagnosed with type 2 diabetes within the previous seven years, with HbA1c between 7.0 and 10.5 per cent and body mass index between 25 and 40. Three regimens were tested, all at 100 mg: Arm A once daily for eight weeks, Arm B once daily for twelve weeks, Arm C once daily for eight weeks followed by twice daily for four. Outcomes were evaluated by diabetes phenotype using the Ahlqvist algorithm, prespecified in the statistical analysis plan before unblinding.

The 52-week results released on October 6, 2025 reported two findings. In severely insulin-deficient patients who received twelve weeks of treatment, Arms B and C combined, icovamenib produced a 1.2 per cent reduction in HbA1c sustained through Week 52, with p=0.01. That analysis covered ten patients. The strongest single arm was Arm B, six patients, with a mean reduction of 1.5 per cent and the same p value. In the separate subgroup of patients already on GLP-1-based therapy who had not reached their glycaemic targets at entry, eleven patients across all arms, eight or twelve weeks of icovamenib produced a 1.3 per cent reduction sustained through Week 52, with p=0.05.

Two features of that readout sit uncomfortably together. The effect was measured nine months after the last dose, which is the entire point of the mechanism and is not something the diabetes field sees often. And the groups are ten patients and eleven patients. Professor Ralph DeFronzo of the University of Texas Health Science Center, quoted in the same release, called the durability remarkable and said it suggested a restoration of beta-cell function. A prespecified subgroup of six patients with p=0.01 is a hypothesis with a number attached to it, not a demonstrated treatment effect, and the two Phase II trials now running exist precisely to convert one into the other.

05 The Same Result, Two Sets Of Numbers

The same results have been described with different numbers in different company releases, and anyone comparing them side by side will find the discrepancy.

The October 6, 2025 release carries, in its headline bullets, a 1.8 per cent placebo-adjusted mean reduction in HbA1c for the severely insulin-deficient population in Arm B, and a 1.8 per cent placebo-adjusted reduction for the GLP-1 subgroup with all arms combined. The body of the same release gives 1.5 per cent for Arm B and 1.3 per cent for the GLP-1 subgroup. The gap between the two sets is the placebo adjustment, which the bullets state and the body text does not.

The release of August 24, 2026 restates the findings again, and in this version the severely insulin-deficient population reaches up to a placebo-adjusted 1.5% mean HbA1c reduction at Week 52 (p=0.01) after a twelve-week course, while the GLP-1 subgroup reaches up to a placebo-adjusted 1.8% mean HbA1c reduction at Week 52 (p=0.05) after eight or twelve weeks. The p values are unchanged from October 2025, and the GLP-1 figure is the same 1.8 per cent given in the earlier bullets.

The severely insulin-deficient figure is the one that moved, and it moved by changing category rather than by changing size. In October 2025 the placebo-adjusted headline for that population was 1.8 per cent and 1.5 per cent was the unadjusted mean reduction reported in the body for Arm B. In August 2026 the figure 1.5 per cent appears as the placebo-adjusted result. The same number is presented under two different definitions ten months apart.

Nothing here suggests the underlying data changed, and the company releases cited here do not explain the discrepancy. The practical consequence for a reader is that the number quoted for icovamenib’s effect depends on which release is being read, and that any figure taken from a secondary source without its original release date is unreliable. Every figure quoted above carries the release it came from.

06 August 24, 2026: COVALENT-211 Is Fully Enrolled

On August 24, 2026, before the market opened, Biomea announced that enrollment in COVALENT-211 was complete. The shares traded up more than twenty per cent on the day on roughly eight million shares against a thirty-session average of about 766,000, a Finviz Elite reading taken while the session was still running.

COVALENT-211, registered as NCT07502495, is a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled Phase II trial in adults with insulin-deficient type 2 diabetes who are not reaching glycaemic targets on standard antihyperglycaemic therapy. Eligible patients had to be on a stable dose of one to three therapies for at least three months, with HbA1c between 7.5 and 10.5 per cent and a body mass index of 32 or below. The trial enrolled 64 participants across 18 clinical sites, randomised two to one to icovamenib 100 mg once daily or placebo for twelve weeks on top of stable background therapy, followed by a forty-week off-treatment period. The primary endpoint is assessed at Week 26, with secondary endpoints followed to Week 52. The company expects topline Week 26 results in the first quarter of 2027.

The design is a direct transcription of the COVALENT-111 subgroup analysis into a trial built to test it: the same 100 mg dose, the same twelve-week course, the same patient phenotype, the same off-treatment follow-up that produced the durability claim. The dosing was informed by the COVALENT-121 food-effect study, NCT07254286, which enrolled 60 healthy volunteers and was reported complete in the January 2026 update.

The registry update posted August 28, 2026 now records COVALENT-211 as active, not recruiting, with actual enrollment of 64. This agrees with the company’s enrollment-completion announcement. Registry status was checked again on October 4, 2026; it does not establish that results have been released.

Completing enrollment is an operational milestone, not a clinical one. It reduces recruitment risk but does not guarantee follow-up completion or the readout timetable, which for a company with $35.2 million in the bank is not a trivial risk to remove. It says nothing whatever about the result.

07 COVALENT-212 And The GLP-1 Non-Responders

The second Phase II trial addresses a larger commercial question. COVALENT-212, registered as NCT07502508, enrolls adults with type 2 diabetes who are not reaching glycaemic targets despite GLP-1-based therapy. Participants must have been on a stable GLP-1-based regimen for at least three months and may take up to two additional background therapies, metformin and an SGLT2 inhibitor. HbA1c must be between 7.0 and 10.5 per cent and body mass index between 25 and 45. As in COVALENT-211, icovamenib is added on top of the existing regimen, which continues throughout.

The trial opened on April 30, 2026, is listed as recruiting across 17 sites, and the company said on August 24, 2026 that it expects enrollment to complete before year end, with Week 26 topline data in the second quarter of 2027.

The population it targets is the one that gives the programme its commercial logic. Biomea cites clinical research indicating that between twenty and forty per cent of people with type 2 diabetes treated with GLP-1-based therapies do not reach adequate glucose control, defined as HbA1c below seven per cent, and frequently progress to insulin. GLP-1 agonists are among the most widely prescribed drugs in the world. An oral add-on that rescues the non-responders, without competing with the incumbent, would be a different kind of asset from one that has to displace semaglutide or tirzepatide.

That is the argument, and the evidence supporting it, in the reviewed primary evidence, is eleven patients in a prespecified subgroup of a trial interrupted by a clinical hold, plus a mechanism that is coherent on paper. The readout that tests it is due in the second quarter of 2027, within the same quarter as management’s stated runway horizon.

08 Type 1 Diabetes: Three-Patient Results And A Completed Registration

Type 1 diabetes is where the mechanism would matter most and where the evidence is thinnest. COVALENT-112, registered as NCT06152042, was a Phase II randomised, double-blind trial of icovamenib against placebo in adults with type 1 diabetes, with the primary endpoint set at mean change from baseline in stimulated C-peptide area under the curve at Week 26. C-peptide is released in equal amounts to insulin by working beta cells and is the standard way of measuring how much endogenous insulin production is left.

The June 2024 clinical hold interrupted this programme. ClinicalTrials.gov now lists COVALENT-112 as completed, with 37 actual participants and an actual primary completion date of May 20, 2025. The registry update was posted August 28, 2026; the record shown is as of October 4. Completion status does not turn the separately reported three-patient observations into evidence from all 37 participants.

The company nonetheless analysed the patients who did complete treatment and presented 52-week follow-up data at the American Diabetes Association’s 86th Scientific Sessions in June 2026. As summarised in the second-quarter release of August 5, 2026: a 52 per cent increase from baseline in mean C-peptide area under the curve at Week 12 in patients diagnosed within nought to three years who received 200 mg, with the effect largely preserved through Week 52, about a seven per cent decline from baseline, after the twelve-week dosing period ended. That group is three patients. Preservation of C-peptide was also reported in patients diagnosed between three and fifteen years earlier, nine patients. Icovamenib was described as generally well tolerated across all dosing arms through Week 52.

Biomea has said it is planning a Phase II trial in recently diagnosed type 1 patients, those within three years of diagnosis, in collaboration with four United States academic centres: the Barbara Davis Center for Diabetes, the Joslin Diabetes Center, the diabetes division of the University of Texas Health Science Center at San Antonio, and the University of Miami Diabetes Research Institute. The design would evaluate extended dosing of six to twelve months at 200 mg and a possible combination with an immunosuppressive agent. On August 5, 2026 the company expected the trial to begin in the second half of the year. No initiation had been announced as of August 24, 2026, and the funding for it is not visible on the current balance sheet.

09 BMF-650, The Oral GLP-1 And The Nearest Readout

BMF-650 is the only asset in the company that is not icovamenib. It is an oral, next-generation, small-molecule GLP-1 receptor agonist for obesity, and its Phase I trial, called GLP-131 and registered as NCT07223216, is a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled single and multiple ascending dose study in otherwise healthy overweight or obese participants. The registry lists 80 participants at a single site, a start date of October 23, 2025 and a status of active, not recruiting as of August 24, 2026.

On June 5, 2026 the company announced it had expanded the trial to evaluate a rapid one-step titration. Titration is the practical bottleneck of the oral GLP-1 class: tolerability, mainly nausea and vomiting, governs how fast a patient can reach an effective dose, and a shorter titration is a genuine point of differentiation if the tolerability holds.

On September 22, Biomea changed the expected GLP-131 topline window from Q3 to October 2026, superseding the August 5 guidance. No specific day is confirmed. A registry study-completion estimate is not a company-confirmed release date.

That readout has narrow boundaries. Twenty-eight days of dosing in healthy overweight volunteers produces a weight-change number and a tolerability profile. It does not produce a competitive position against oral semaglutide or orforglipron, both of which are far further advanced with far larger datasets. For a company with this balance sheet, its function is closer to a financing event than to a clinical one: a good number widens the range of terms on which capital can be raised.

10 OPAL, Leicester And The Semaglutide Combination

The third clinical strand is an academic collaboration led by the University of Leicester. On August 13, 2026 the company announced that the first participant had been dosed in a newly activated arm of OPAL, an adaptive platform trial registered as ISRCTN10203365 and run by the University of Leicester and the Leicester Diabetes Centre with the NIHR Biomedical Research Centre Leicester, led by Professor Dame Melanie Davies and Professor Thomas Yates.

The arm evaluates icovamenib at 100 mg once daily for twelve weeks in combination with low-dose semaglutide for twenty-four weeks, against low-dose semaglutide alone, in people without type 2 diabetes who are overweight with a weight-related complication or obese. The company describes the arm as randomised and double-blind and designed to enroll 64 participants one to one, with the primary endpoint assessed at Week 24; the ISRCTN registration describes the OPAL platform itself as an open-label adaptive randomised trial, so the blinding applies to the arm as the company has described it, not to the platform. The endpoints go beyond weight: physical function, body composition, muscle health and metabolic markers.

The scientific rationale Biomea gives is that in preclinical work icovamenib enhanced semaglutide’s effect, with weight reduction driven by fat loss and preservation of lean mass, and that it upregulates GLP-1 expression, supports myogenesis and shifts adipose tissue metabolism towards energy expenditure. Muscle loss under GLP-1 therapy is one of the live commercial questions in obesity treatment, and every large developer in the field is working on it.

For an investor the relevant feature is the cost structure. An academic platform can share research infrastructure and expertise; the reviewed announcement does not establish that Biomea has no supply or support costs. The corresponding limitation is that the company does not control the timetable, the analysis or the communication of the result, and animal findings cannot establish a human treatment effect.

11 The Second Quarter Of 2026 In Numbers

Biomea reported its second quarter on August 5, 2026. There is no revenue line, and there never has been. The figures below come from the condensed statement of operations filed with the quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the period ended June 30, 2026.

Two lines carry most of the information. The net loss of $8.3 million is the smallest the company has reported since before the 2024 hold, and $4.1 million of the improvement is not operating: it is the revaluation of the warrant liability, a non-cash gain that arises because the share price fell. A company whose reported loss shrinks when its stock falls is telling the reader something about its capital structure, not about its business.

The other line is the share count. Weighted average shares went from 40.6 million in the second quarter of 2025 to 72.4 million in the second quarter of 2026, up 78 per cent in a year. The loss per share improved from $(0.51) to $(0.12). Holding the share count of a year ago and applying this quarter’s loss gives $(0.21), so roughly a fifth of the improvement disappears once the extra shares are removed from the calculation; run the other way round, this quarter’s share count against last year’s loss gives $(0.29), and more than half of it does.

Cash used in operating activities was $21.697 million in the first half of 2026, against $44.879 million in the first half of 2025. Financing brought in $159 thousand over the six months, entirely from option exercises and employee stock purchases. No shares were sold under the at-the-market programme in the first half of 2026.

12 How A $144 Million Year Became A $25.5 Million Half Year

The filed accounts show a substantial reduction in operating costs. Full-year 2025 operating expenses were $83.512 million, against $144.070 million in 2024 and $126.135 million in 2023. The first half of 2026 ran at $25.540 million, an annualised rate close to $51 million.

Research and development, the dominant line, fell from $33.8 million in the first quarter of 2024 to $9.1 million in each of the first two quarters of 2026. The company attributes the year-on-year decline of $7.4 million in the second quarter to $1.5 million less on preclinical and exploratory programmes, $1.3 million less on consultants and professional services, $1.0 million less on manufacturing, $2.5 million less on personnel including stock compensation, and $1.7 million less on facilities, offset by $0.6 million more on clinical activities. That last item is the only one moving in the direction of the pipeline.

Headcount is the mechanism. The annual report records 41 full-time employees at December 31, 2025, of whom 27 were in research and development. Stock-based compensation, which follows headcount and grant levels, fell from $2.573 million in the second quarter of 2025 to $1.587 million in the second quarter of 2026. Facilities costs fell as laboratory space was given up; the company recorded a $0.510 million gain on the sale of laboratory equipment in the first quarter of 2026.

13 The Balance Sheet And The Going-Concern Statement

At June 30, 2026 Biomea held $35.193 million in cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash, against $56.181 million at December 31, 2025. Total assets were $36.873 million, total liabilities $24.736 million and stockholders’ equity $12.137 million. Additional paid-in capital stood at $481.921 million and the accumulated deficit at $469.791 million. There is no financial debt.

The largest liability is not a payable. The warrant liability of $14.3 million is the fair value, under a Black-Scholes measurement, of the common warrants issued with the June and October 2025 offerings. It is remeasured at every balance sheet date, its fair-value carrying amount is not a routine cash debt repayment, and it either converts into equity if the warrants are exercised or disappears if they expire unexercised. Stripping it out, the company owes roughly $10.5 million to trade creditors, landlords and employees, rather than a scheduled repayment of financial borrowings.

The going-concern language is the part that governs everything else. The second-quarter release states that cash runway is projected into the second quarter of 2027. The quarterly report filed the same day states that management believes that the existing financial resources are not sufficient to continue operating activities for at least twelve months past the issuance date of the financial statements, and concludes that there is substantial doubt about the Company’s ability to continue as a going concern.

The company forecasts funding into Q2 2027 but reports substantial doubt about continuing as a going concern over the required assessment period. The Q1 2027 COVALENT-211 readout is earlier than that forecast runway endpoint. Additional financing is needed to support operations beyond the funded plan; these dates alone do not establish that a raise must occur before or immediately after that readout.

14 Dilution: From $30.00 In 2023 To Warrants Struck At $2.50

Shares outstanding were 72,483,852 at June 30, 2026 and 72,299,440 at December 31, 2025, so 2026 itself has been quiet: the movement of 184,412 shares in six months is purchases under the employee stock purchase plan. The dilution happened in 2025, at $2.00 and $2.05 a share, roughly one fifteenth of the April 2023 price.

The instruments that have not yet become shares are set out in Note 8 to the quarterly report. At June 30, 2026 there were 13,184,249 stock options outstanding, 797,000 shares of restricted stock subject to vesting, 38,499 shares issuable under the employee stock purchase plan and 37,024,389 common warrants: 51,044,137 in total, or a further 70 per cent on top of the shares in issue.

Two further pressures sit behind that figure. The 2021 incentive plan carries an evergreen provision that increases the pool automatically each January by up to five per cent of the shares outstanding; on January 1, 2026 it added 3,614,972 shares. And on August 11, 2025 the board repriced eligible options held by non-executive employees and service providers to an exercise price of $4.50, which is itself now more than three times the market price.

15 The Warrant Overhang And December 20, 2026

Two tranches are outstanding, both struck at $2.50. The first, 23,000,000 warrants issued on June 20, 2025, expires on December 20, 2026. The second, 14,024,389 warrants issued on October 8, 2025, expires on October 8, 2028. Against the September 29, 2026 close of $1.26, both are well out of the money; the company’s own Black-Scholes input for the share price at June 30, 2026 was $1.47.

If every warrant were exercised, Biomea would receive $92.6 million in cash and issue 37.0 million shares. Those are maximum theoretical gross cash-exercise proceeds, not committed funding. Holders may not exercise; market price, remaining life and instrument terms matter.

The 23 million December warrants represent $57.5 million of potential gross cash-exercise proceeds. Expiry without exercise removes that tranche of overhang and that possible funding source. The October obesity window precedes expiry, but does not determine the stock price, exercise decisions or availability of other financing.

Warrant strikes are not price targets and nothing about the structure suggests where the shares will trade. The point is narrower and mechanical: a large, dated block of potential capital sits just above the current price, and the December 2026 expiry precedes the diabetes readouts expected in 2027, while the obesity topline window is October 2026.

16 Management, Board And Governance

Michael J.M. Hitchcock, who signs as Mick Hitchcock, has been interim chief executive of Biomea Fusion since March 25, 2025, when the company announced that founder Thomas Butler was stepping down. Hitchcock was already a member of the board. Erdtmann continues as chief operating officer and president, and Thorsten Kirschberg was described as executive vice president of research in the company’s release of August 13, 2026.

On governance, one episode is on the record. In March 2025 Biomea notified Nasdaq’s Listing Qualifications Department that it was not in compliance with Listing Rule 5605(c)(2)(A), which requires an audit committee of three independent directors, because its audit committee had two members. Compliance was regained in July 2025 with the appointment of Julianne Averill to the board and the committee. The matter is closed, and the company’s own risk factors note that continued compliance with Nasdaq requirements is not assured.

Executive officers, directors and their affiliates beneficially owned approximately six per cent of the outstanding voting stock at June 30, 2026, according to the same quarterly report; Finviz Elite put insider ownership at 6.76 per cent on August 24, 2026, on a different definition and a different date. Institutional ownership was 40.70 per cent on the same Finviz reading. Schedule 13G filings on the register at that date include Heights Capital Management and CVI Investments, filed February 17, 2026, Blue Owl Capital Holdings, filed February 12, 2026, and Janus Henderson Group, filed December 8, 2025. The filings establish holdings at their stated dates, not investment motives or future support.

17 Market Snapshot And Analyst Coverage

The market data below were taken from Finviz Elite on September 30, 2026, while the session was still running. The last confirmed close is the September 29 one; the September 30 figures are a reading taken during the session and are not final.

18 Retail Sentiment On Stocktwits

Stocktwits is where the retail conversation about $BMEA happens, and the readings below are taken from the platform’s public data on September 30, 2026. They are opinions posted by traders and non-professional investors, not analyst research, and they are recorded here as a measure of positioning and mood rather than as evidence about the company.

19 The Catalyst Map

Two items on this map are dates rather than windows: the investor conferences confirmed for September 10 and 15, 2026, and the December 20, 2026 warrant expiry. Everything else is a company-guided window, and windows move.

The company guides to funding into Q2 2027: COVALENT-211 in Q1 is earlier, while COVALENT-212 in Q2 shares that limited financing horizon. BMF-650 data expected in October 2026 precede the December 20 warrant expiry. The terminated offering supplies no new capital, and warrant exercise remains conditional.