Oscar Health (NYSE: $OSCR) Stock Hub 2026: A Record First Half, A Raised Guidance That Implies A Loss-Making Second Half, And An Investor Day On September 16

01 What Oscar Health Is In August 2026

Oscar Health, Inc. is a health insurer with a technology platform attached to it, and almost all
of its revenue comes from one place: individual and family health plans sold through the
marketplaces created by the Affordable Care Act. The company was founded in 2012, listed on the
New York Stock Exchange in March 2021 under the ticker $OSCR, and is domiciled in Delaware with
its head office at 75 Varick Street in New York.

The scale is no longer small. Oscar served approximately 3.0 million effectuated members at
June 30, 2026, roughly 46 per cent more than a year earlier, and reported total revenue of
$9,527.4 million in the first six months of 2026 against $5,910.2 million in the same period of
2025. For the 2025 policy year it offered coverage in 18 states; for 2026 it expanded to 20. It
no longer sells small group plans, having ended that line on December 15, 2024, and it did not
renew the Cigna+Oscar co-branded arrangement after its initial term expired on December 31, 2024.

Around the insurance carrier sit three wholly owned businesses that Oscar calls the Marketplace
Subsidiaries: Lucie, Inc., formerly INSXCloud, an enrolment platform that is one of eleven
CMS-approved solutions; Trove Group Inc., formerly IHC Specialty Benefits, an agency selling
individual medical and supplemental products across carriers in all fifty states; and
HealthInsurance.org, a lead-generation and education site. The +Oscar platform sells the company’s
technology, including a campaign and engagement product, to other payors and providers.

Mark Bertolini, the former chief executive of Aetna, has run the company since 2023. Joshua
Kushner, the co-founder, sits on the board through Thrive Capital. Mario Schlosser, the other
co-founder, moved on June 1, 2026 from President of Technology and Chief Technology Officer to
Co-Founder and Advisor to the chief executive, and remains a director.

02 The Individual Market After The Enhanced Subsidies Expired

One fact governs everything that follows: a subsidy that no longer exists.
The enhanced Advanced Premium Tax Credits, which ran from 2021 until the end of 2025, made
marketplace coverage materially cheaper for millions of people and pulled enrolment to record
levels. They expired on December 31, 2025 and were not replaced.

Oscar’s own description, in the quarterly report filed on August 7, 2026, is direct: the
expiry “caused coverage to become unaffordable for some individuals, reducing both the overall
participation in the Health Insurance Marketplaces and the Company’s membership since the end of
the 2026 open enrollment period”. The company adds that the expiry, combined with new program
integrity requirements, “could continue to negatively impact the size of the Health Insurance
Marketplaces and our membership in future years”, and that “any resulting market contraction could
negatively impact market morbidity”.

The second half of that sentence matters more than the first. A smaller pool is not simply a
smaller version of the same pool. People who drop coverage when the price rises are, on average,
the ones who expect to use it least, which leaves a sicker average member behind. That is the
mechanism behind the word morbidity, and it is the mechanism that produced Oscar’s 2025 loss.

03 Membership: The 2026 Arc And The Retroactive Disenrolments

The membership series is the clearest single picture of what happened. Effectuated members were
1,676,970 at December 31, 2024 and 2,042,449 at December 31, 2025. After the 2026 open enrolment
period they stood at 3,174,489 on March 31, 2026, a gain of more than a million in three months at
a moment when the market as a whole was shrinking. Three months later, on June 30, 2026, they were
2,963,002.

That is a fall of 211,487 members, or 6.7 per cent, in a single quarter. And the decline did not
stop at the quarter end. The 10-Q states that as of July 1, 2026 there were “approximately 250
thousand to 300 thousand members who we expect will be retroactively disenrolled in connection with
CMS program integrity requirements or fraud, waste and abuse laws and regulations”.

Retroactive is the operative word. These are members whose premiums have in part already been
recognised and whose claims have in part already been paid, and the amount Oscar expects to refund
to CMS sits inside the payables to CMS line on the balance sheet. Two facts therefore hold at the
same time: Oscar took share in a contracting market, and the share it took is being audited down.

04 The Second Quarter And The First Half In Numbers

The second quarter of 2026, reported on August 6, was the largest quarter in the company’s
history on every operating line, and it followed a first quarter that was larger still on
profitability.

Two components of that improvement deserve to be separated from the rest. The second quarter
medical loss ratio of 79.2 per cent included $164 million of favourable prior period reserve
development, and the first quarter included a further $68 million. Prior period development is the
correction of an earlier estimate: claims that were reserved for and did not arrive at the level
assumed. It is real money and it is not repeatable by definition, because it comes from the
conservatism of a previous quarter rather than from the economics of the current one.

The other component is the comparison base. The 91.1 per cent of the second quarter of 2025
carried the entire first-half 2025 risk adjustment true-up, which is why the year-on-year swing
looks as violent as it does.

05 The Medical Loss Ratio, Quarter By Quarter

Read as a series rather than as a pair of quarters, the ratio tells a plainer story: two bad
years of pricing, a repricing for 2026, and a seasonal pattern that the company itself describes
in detail.

Oscar’s own account of that seasonality is in the quarterly report. Members meet deductibles and
out-of-pocket maximums over the course of the policy year, “which shifts more costs to us in the
second half of the year as we pay a higher proportion of covered claims costs”. The company adds
that the effect may be stronger in 2026 than usual, because newer members “tend to take time to
engage with their benefits” and because “the shift to higher deductible plans could concentrate a
higher portion of total costs to the second half of the year”.

A first-half ratio of 75.0 per cent against full year guidance of 81.5 to 82.5 per cent is
therefore not a contradiction. It is the company saying that the second half will be considerably
worse than the first, and saying so in the guidance rather than in a footnote.

06 Risk Adjustment: The Largest Single Estimate In The Model

Risk adjustment is the mechanism by which plans with healthier than average members pay into a
federal pool and plans with sicker than average members are paid out of it. For Oscar it is not a
detail. In the first six months of 2026 risk adjustment transfers were approximately 20 per cent
of direct policy premium revenue, four percentage points higher than in the same period of 2025.

Nearly one dollar in five of the premium Oscar writes is handed to other insurers through this
mechanism. The net risk adjustment payable stood at $4,846.1 million at June 30, 2026 against
$2,559.6 million a year earlier.

The estimate is also the least certain number in the accounts, and the company says so. Risk
scores are built on lagged claims data; the final reckoning from CMS arrives up to twelve months in
arrears; the calculation depends on the risk profile of every other insurer in the same market, not
only on Oscar’s own; and there is, in the company’s words, “additional uncertainty for both markets
and blocks of business that experience outsized growth”. Oscar’s individual book grew by roughly
half in a year. That is the definition of outsized growth, and 2025 is the demonstration of what
happens when the estimate moves the wrong way.

07 The Guidance Raise Of August 6, And What Its Arithmetic Implies

On August 6, 2026 Oscar left its revenue range unchanged and raised everything below it.

The raise is large in percentage terms, and the subtraction underneath it is the part that moved
the share price on the day. Earnings from operations in the first
six months were $1,092.7 million. The top of the full year range is $700 million. Subtracting the
half already reported from the year guided to leaves an implied second-half result of between a
$392.7 million loss and a $592.7 million loss.

The same subtraction on revenue leaves $9,172.6 million to $9,472.6 million for the second half,
against $9,527.4 million in the first, so the implied deterioration is a margin event rather than a
volume event. Applying the guided full year medical loss ratio to a premium base that assumes
investment and other income run at first-half rates gives an implied second-half ratio in the high
eighties, in the region of 88 to 90 per cent. That last figure is an estimate built on a stated
assumption, not a company disclosure; the two subtractions above are not.

08 Where The Revenue Comes From, And Why The Cash Flow Looks Like That

Ninety-three per cent of the premiums Oscar earned in 2025 were paid directly by the Centers for
Medicare and Medicaid Services under the advanced premium tax credit programme, and seven per cent
by members. That is the concentration disclosed in the annual report, and it frames the business
correctly: Oscar’s customer is the individual, but Oscar’s payer is the federal government.

The consequences run in both directions. On the favourable side, collection risk is minimal and
the revenue line is administratively predictable. On the unfavourable side, every material variable
in the model is set by rule rather than negotiated: who is eligible for a subsidy, how large it is,
how long the enrolment window stays open, which verification documents an applicant must produce,
and how much of a plan’s premium is transferred to a competitor through risk adjustment. A single
change to the Notice of Benefit and Payment Parameters can move all of them.

The same dependency shows up in the cash flow statement. Net cash provided by operating
activities was $4,711.3 million in the first half of 2026, against $1,387.6 million a year earlier.
Of that, $3,365.2 million was the increase in payables to CMS and a further $443.1 million the
increase in benefits payable. Operating cash flow of this shape is float, not earnings: it is money
Oscar holds and will hand over later.

09 The Balance Sheet And The Payable Sitting Against The Cash

Total assets nearly doubled in six months, from $6,325.4 million at December 31, 2025 to
$11,226.8 million at June 30, 2026. Cash and cash equivalents were $4,075.6 million, short-term
investments $4,479.9 million and long-term investments $1,600.8 million.

Against that sits a liability that has grown faster than the assets. Payables to CMS were
$6,095.3 million, up from $2,730.1 million at the end of 2025. That single line is larger than the
cash balance, and it is the reason the balance sheet must be read as a whole rather than by its
cash figure. Benefits payable, the reserve for claims incurred and not yet paid, was a further
$1,898.4 million.

Total current liabilities were $8,689.5 million against total current assets of $9,373.2 million.
Total stockholders’ equity was $2,055.2 million, against $980.7 million at the end of 2025, of which
$2,052.0 million was attributable to Oscar Health, Inc. and $3.1 million to noncontrolling interests;
the whole of that increase is the first-half profit, since the accumulated deficit fell from
$3,294.4 million to $2,253.6 million. On the attributable figure, book value works out at roughly
$6.65 per share on the 308.6 million Class A and Class B shares outstanding at June 30, 2026.

10 Liquidity: $9.7 Billion In The Subsidiaries, $462.3 Million At The Parent

An insurance holding company does not have one cash balance, it has two, and the difference
between them is regulatory rather than accounting.

At June 30, 2026 the Health Insurance Subsidiaries held $9.7 billion of cash and investments,
of which $19.6 million was on deposit with regulators for statutory licensing. The parent company
and the subsidiaries that are not insurers held $462.3 million, of which $9.6 million was
restricted. At December 31, 2025 the two figures were $5.1 billion and $414.2 million.

Money inside a regulated insurer belongs, in practice, to the policyholders and the state
insurance departments until a dividend is approved. The company lists among its risk factors the
ability of those subsidiaries “to make payments of dividends or distributions to us, including to
fund our business strategy”. So the $9.7 billion is a solvency number and the $462.3 million is
the corporate one: it is what services the convertible coupons, funds acquisitions and absorbs
head-office costs without asking a regulator first.

Behind it stands a facility signed on February 6, 2026: a $475.0 million secured three-year
revolving credit line arranged by JPMorgan Chase, expiring on February 6, 2029, with an accordion
of a further $100.0 million. Borrowings would price at term SOFR plus 4.50 per cent or the
alternate base rate plus 3.50 per cent, and the undrawn commitment fee started at 0.50 per cent.
Nothing was drawn at June 30, 2026. The pricing is not investment-grade pricing, which is itself
information about how the lending market reads the credit.

11 Capital Structure: Two Convertible Issues And The Dilution Already Reported

Long-term debt was $431.6 million at June 30, 2026, and all of it is convertible.

• 2030 Notes. $410.0 million issued on September 18, 2025, 2.25 per cent coupon
  payable semi-annually, maturing September 1, 2030, convertible at approximately $24.82 per Class A
  share on an initial rate of 40.2946 shares per $1,000 of principal.
• 2031 Notes. $305.0 million originally issued in February 2022 to funds
  affiliated with Dragoneer, Thrive Capital, LionTree and Tenere at a 7.25 per cent coupon, maturing
  December 31, 2031, convertible at approximately $8.32 per share on a rate of 120.1721 shares per
  $1,000. After the exchange transactions of November 2025, $35 million of principal remained
  outstanding at June 30, 2026.

Both are in the money. The 10-Q states that during the quarter ended June 30, 2026 the share
price condition on the 2031 Notes was satisfied, because the stock traded above 130 per cent of the
$8.32 conversion price for at least twenty of the last thirty trading days of the quarter, so
holders may elect to convert during the third quarter of 2026.

The dilution is already visible in the reported numbers rather than hiding behind them. Class A
and Class B shares outstanding were 308.6 million at June 30, 2026, while the diluted weighted
average share count used for the quarter was 333.4 million. Full conversion of both issues alone
would add roughly 20.7 million shares on the stated conversion rates. That gap is why diluted
earnings per share of $1.10 sits well below basic earnings per share of $1.20 for the same quarter.

12 The 2027 Rulebook: Columbus I, Columbus II And The Payment Parameters

The rules that will govern the 2027 plan year have been written, challenged in court, partly
struck down, rewritten and partly stayed again, all within about twelve months. The sequence
matters because Oscar has to price 2027 plans against whichever version survives.

• July 4, 2025. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act is signed into law, adding
  verification procedures for eligibility for advanced premium tax credits and limiting eligibility
  for certain populations.
• June 25, 2025. CMS issues the Program Integrity Rules: stricter eligibility
  verification, shorter open enrolment periods, suspension of certain special enrolment periods.
• August 22, 2025. In City of Columbus vs. Kennedy, a federal district
  court in Maryland issues a nationwide stay on several of those provisions. They were not in effect
  during the 2026 open enrolment period. The provisions untouched by the stay took effect on
  August 25, 2025.
• June 12, 2026. The court issues a final ruling nullifying the stayed provisions
  and certain others.
• May 15, 2026. The Department of Health and Human Services finalises the Notice
  of Benefit and Payment Parameters for plan year 2027, reintroducing updated versions of several
  nullified provisions, including income verification requirements where data indicates household
  income below the federal poverty line, and a rule making a tax filer ineligible for credits if they
  failed to file a return reconciling an earlier year’s credits.
• June 3, 2026. Plaintiffs challenge the 2027 rules in a second case, referred to
  in the filings as Columbus II.
• July 16, 2026. The court issues a nationwide stay on several provisions of the
  2027 parameters, including the income verification rules and the one-year failure-to-reconcile
  rule, pending a ruling on the merits. Provisions unaffected by the stay took effect on
  July 20, 2026.

Two practical consequences follow for the coming enrolment season. The 2027 open enrolment
period reverts to the historical November 1 to January 15 window, which is longer than the shortened
one CMS had sought. And if the stayed provisions are eventually implemented, Oscar expects them to
affect subsidy eligibility and enrolment processes beginning with that same 2027 season. The
direction of the next enrolment cycle depends on a court docket.

13 Tariffs On Patented Pharmaceuticals And The Rebate Channel

A second regulatory thread runs through the drug supply chain rather than the insurance rules.
On April 2, 2026 a proclamation under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act imposed 100 per cent
tariffs on patented pharmaceuticals and associated ingredients imported into the United States,
effective July 31, 2026 for certain named companies and September 29, 2026 for everyone else,
unless manufacturers agree to specific government drug pricing deals or commit to shifting
production and research onshore.

Oscar’s exposure is indirect and asymmetric. The company explains that pressure on list prices
could bring “a corresponding, or even disproportionate, decrease in the pharmaceutical rebates that
we negotiate and typically receive”, and that because those rebates are built into premium pricing,
“a reduction in rebates that outpaces any decline in underlying drug costs could exert financial
pressure, potentially leading to an adverse impact on our earnings from operations and an increase
in our MLR”. Beyond rebates, the company lists higher provider and device costs and possible
shortages of medicines as further channels.

The September 29, 2026 date falls inside the second half that guidance already describes as
loss-making, and inside the pricing work for the 2027 plan year.

14 September 16, 2026: The Investor Day And The Long-Term Targets

The nearest scheduled company event is an Investor Day. Oscar announced on July 28, 2026 that it
will host its 2026 Investor Day on Wednesday, September 16, 2026, beginning at 9:00 a.m. Eastern
Time, with a live webcast on its investor relations site and an archive available for about ninety
days afterwards.

The announced agenda is the reason the date carries weight: management “will discuss the
Company’s corporate strategy, financial performance, and long-term financial targets”. Long-term
financial targets is the specific phrase. Oscar has not published a 2027 outlook, and the second
half of 2026 is guided to an operating loss, so the first framework the company offers for the
years beyond this one is scheduled for that morning.

15 The Businesses Around The Insurer: Lucie, Trove And The ICHRA Bet

The businesses around the carrier are small in revenue and large in strategic intent. Oscar
acquired them in 2025 and groups them as the Marketplace Subsidiaries.

• Lucie, Inc., formerly INSXCloud, a direct enrolment technology platform and one
  of only eleven CMS-approved solutions, which is a licence competitors cannot simply buy.
• Trove Group Inc., formerly IHC Specialty Benefits, an agency distributing
  individual medical and supplemental products from multiple carriers in all fifty states.
• HealthInsurance.org, an education and lead generation site covering the
  marketplaces, Medicare and Medicaid.

The thesis behind them is the Individual Coverage Health Reimbursement Arrangement, or ICHRA, the
mechanism by which an employer funds an account and the employee buys an individual plan instead of
being enrolled in a group plan. Oscar counts ICHRA members inside its individual membership and has
built distribution, enrolment technology and a supplemental product shelf around the idea that
employer-sponsored coverage will keep migrating toward the individual market.

Bertolini put the demographic case in the second-quarter release: “More people are moving between
full- and part-time jobs, gig work, and retirement – a shift AI will accelerate. A durable
individual market gives them greater choice and will power the future of American healthcare.”
Whether that migration happens at the pace the company assumes is
the central open question of the equity story, and it is not one that any quarter settles.

16 Management, The Dual Class Structure And The Controlled Company Status

Oscar has a dual class structure. Class A shares carry one vote; Class B shares carry twenty. At
the record date for the 2026 annual meeting there were 265,530,268 Class A shares and 35,591,356
Class B shares outstanding, which means the Class B holders controlled roughly 711.8 million of the
approximately 977.4 million votes available, or about 73 per cent, while holding around 12 per cent
of the equity. The company identifies itself as a controlled company and lists the associated
adverse consequences among its risk factors.

At the annual meeting held on June 4, 2026 all eight director nominees were elected, executive
compensation was approved on an advisory basis and PricewaterhouseCoopers was ratified as auditor.
Broker non-votes ran to 45,930,469 on the first two proposals. The board comprises Mark Bertolini,
William J. Gassen III, Joshua Kushner, Laura Lang, David Alexander Plouffe, Siddhartha Sankaran,
Mario Schlosser and Vanessa Ames Wittman.

The main governance change of the year was Schlosser’s move on June 1, 2026 from President of
Technology and Chief Technology Officer to Co-Founder and Advisor to the chief executive. Under the
amended agreement his base salary is $370,000, he is no longer eligible for an annual bonus from
2026, he will receive no new long-term or equity awards, and he is entitled to no cash severance on
any termination. He continues to vest in awards already granted and remains on the board.

17 What The Insiders Have Been Doing Since June

Between June 23 and August 27, 2026 the two largest individual holders inside the company sold
or registered to sell a substantial number of shares. The filings are public and the mechanics
matter as much as the totals.

The chief executive’s two Form 4s cover 2,445,306 shares over four trading sessions, roughly
$70.7 million at the weighted average prices reported, and both carry the Rule 10b5-1 flag. A
footnote attributes part of the June 29 and 30 sales to shares sold to cover tax withholding on
performance stock units that vested on April 3, 2026, under an instruction letter entered into on
November 10, 2025 and amended on March 24, 2026. Schlosser’s June sales were made under a Rule
10b5-1 plan adopted on March 24, 2026. The two filings that cover his June 23 disposals do not agree to the share: the transaction lines of the Form 4 add up to 1,027,500 shares, while the Form 144 of August 27 reports 1,027,398 shares sold on that date for gross proceeds of $30,183,414. That same Form 144 also discloses 34,120 shares sold on June 2 for $748,633.08.

The chief financial officer’s Form 4 of August 20 is the one filing in the set where the Rule
10b5-1 box is not checked. It covers 18,750 shares, a small transaction beside the others, and
after it he held 56,250 shares including units still to be issued.

Board grants ran the other way and are routine: five directors each received 8,475 shares on
June 4, 2026, the day of the annual meeting.

18 Market Data And Sell-Side Coverage

Market and consensus readings were taken from Finviz Elite on August 28, 2026 and change
continuously. Three of them sit oddly together and the tension is the point. The stock has roughly
tripled from its March low. The consensus target is $30.82, essentially where the shares closed.
And the beta of 2.36 says that whatever the market does, this security has historically done more than
twice as much of it.

The valuation multiples carry their own warning label. A trailing price to earnings of 22.58 is
calculated on twelve months that contain two exceptional quarters and two loss-making ones, and the
company’s own guidance implies the next two quarters will be loss-making at the operating line. A
multiple built on that base is arithmetic, not a description of run-rate earnings.

19 Retail Sentiment On Stocktwits

Retail sentiment is a picture of what non-professional traders are saying, not of what analysts
or the company think, and it is quoted here on that basis.

On Stocktwits, on August 28, 2026, tagged messages on the $OSCR stream ran 84.62 per cent
bullish against 15.38 per cent bearish, while the platform’s own composite reading for the symbol
was 35 out of 100, carrying a bearish label. The two figures disagree because they measure
different things: the percentages count only messages a poster chose to tag, the composite blends
message flow and other activity.

The recurring themes in the stream over the last week of August were narrow. Traders were
watching a range between roughly $30 and $32 and treating the September Investor Day as the event
that breaks it, with one post summarising the mood as expecting the stock to sit “between 30 and 32
until investor day”. A second theme was the read-across from other healthcare names, with $CNC and
$HIMS mentioned repeatedly as comparables trading on the same policy news. A third, smaller strand
was frustration at low-volume drift after the August 24 high.

None of this is analysis. It is a measure of attention, and attention on this name is currently
pointed at one date.

20 The Catalyst Map

The distribution of that list is itself informative. One catalyst has a confirmed date and a
disclosed agenda; the rest are either mechanical, or set by a court and a legislature that have
moved four times in twelve months.

21 Risks And Red Flags

• The second half is guided to a loss. Subtracting first-half earnings from
  operations of $1,092.7 million from the full year range of $500 million to $700 million leaves an
  implied second-half operating loss of $392.7 million to $592.7 million.
• Reserve development flattered the first half. $164 million of favourable prior
  period development in the second quarter and $68 million in the first are corrections of earlier
  estimates, not recurring margin.
• Membership is being audited down. Members fell 211,487 between March 31 and
  June 30, 2026, and a further 250,000 to 300,000 were expected as of July 1 to be retroactively
  disenrolled under program integrity requirements.
• Risk adjustment is one fifth of premium and is an estimate. Transfers were
  about 20 per cent of direct policy premium in the first half, the net payable was $4,846.1 million
  at June 30, and the calculation depends on other insurers’ data that arrives up to twelve months in
  arrears. The 2025 loss came from exactly this line.
• One product, one market, one payer. Ninety-three per cent of 2025 premiums were
  paid directly by CMS. There is no diversified segment to absorb a bad policy year.
• The rulebook for 2027 is unsettled. Two rounds of litigation, a nullification
  and a nationwide stay have all landed within twelve months, and the pricing for the next enrolment
  season has to be set against whichever version survives.
• Cash is not free cash. Of the $4,711.3 million of first-half operating cash
  flow, $3,365.2 million was the increase in payables to CMS. The parent company held $462.3 million,
  against $9.7 billion inside regulated subsidiaries that need approval to distribute it.
• Dilution is live. The diluted share count of 333.4 million sits 24.8 million
  above the 308.6 million shares outstanding, and holders of the 2031 Notes may convert during the
  third quarter of 2026.
• Insider selling has been heavy. The chief executive sold 2,445,306 shares over
  four sessions in late June under a Rule 10b5-1 plan, and the co-founder filed on August 27 to sell
  a further 600,000.
• The stock has already moved. Up roughly 109 per cent year to date and
  approximately 180 per cent from the March low, against a consensus target essentially level with
  the last close.

22 Scenarios

These are descriptions of paths the disclosed facts leave open, not forecasts and not advice.
Each one is defined by what would have to be true, so that a reader can check it against the next
set of numbers rather than against an opinion.

What separates the two is measurable and dated. The third quarter report, due in early November,
is the first observation of the guided second half. The Investor Day of September 16 is the first
statement of what management thinks the years after 2026 look like. A ruling in Columbus II decides
which set of eligibility rules applies to the enrolment season that opens on November 1.

23 Bottom Line

Oscar Health in August 2026 is a company whose reported numbers and whose own guidance point in
opposite directions over the next six months, and both come from the same press release.

The reported half is the best in the company’s history: $9,527.4 million of revenue, a 75.0 per
cent medical loss ratio, $1,092.7 million of operating earnings and $3.16 of diluted earnings per
share, against a full year 2025 that lost $396.4 million at the operating line. The guided half is
an operating loss of roughly $390 million to $590 million on similar revenue, driven by the
seasonality the company describes in its own filing and by a market that shrank when the enhanced
subsidies expired.

Everything else follows from how those two halves are weighted. The balance sheet is larger but
so is what it owes: $6,095.3 million of payables to CMS against $4,075.6 million of cash, and
$462.3 million of that liquidity actually at the parent. The share price has already discounted a
recovery, trading up 109 per cent year to date against a consensus target of $30.82. The insiders
who know the model best sold heavily in June and filed to sell more in August, under plans adopted
in advance.

The next fixed point on the calendar is September 16, 2026, when management has said it will
present long-term financial targets. Until then there is no company statement about 2027 at all.

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