Intuitive Machines ( $LUNR ) Aggressive 2026 Guidance, and the $180.4M NASA CLPS Award

Intuitive Machines is now asking the market to believe two things at the same time. First, that FY2025 weakness was transitional rather than structural. Second, that the combined company after the Lanteris acquisition can grow into a much larger, more diversified space and defense platform without losing control of margins, working capital, or mission execution.

The tension is obvious. On one side, the March 19, 2026 results were underwhelming: full-year revenue of $210.1 million, fourth-quarter revenue of $44.8 million, negative free cash flow of $56.0 million, and a business still relying heavily on external capital to support growth. On the other side, management is now pointing to a very different 2026 picture: full-year revenue guidance of $900 million to $1.0 billion, positive adjusted EBITDA, roughly $943 million of combined backlog as of late February, and then a fresh $180.4 million NASA CLPS award announced on March 24 that pushes the contract narrative forward again.

The problem is that backlog and awards are not the same thing as clean execution. A company can win contracts, accumulate backlog, and still disappoint shareholders if the gross margin profile stays weak, if receivables do not convert into cash in a timely way, if integration creates friction, or if high-visibility missions keep generating mixed operational outcomes. That is why this story now has to be judged on business quality, not just on headline wins.

Rezolute ( $RZLT ) after the FDA meeting: the congenital HI story is not dead, but the bar is still high

Rezolute remains a classic high-volatility rare-disease biotech story, but the shape of the binary has changed. After sunRIZE missed its primary endpoint in December 2025, many traders effectively treated congenital hyperinsulinism as broken. The March 2026 FDA update forces a more careful read. The agency did not endorse management’s interpretation, yet it also did not dismiss the program outright. Instead, FDA encouraged the submission of comprehensive reports from sunRIZE and the ongoing open-label extension, together with the relevant analysis datasets, for independent evaluation.

Sidus Space Inc ( $SIDU ) Space Infrastructure, Commercial Payloads, Capital Pressure and the March 31 Earnings Test

Sidus Space heads into its March 31 earnings event with a familiar mix of promise and pressure. On one side, the company continues to build the narrative it wants the market to believe: a nimble space infrastructure player with satellite heritage, hosted payload capability, and a path toward recurring higher-value data services. On the other side, the financial picture remains fragile, commercial scale is still limited, and capital structure risk has become impossible to ignore.

The stock therefore sits in a classic micro-cap tension zone. Technical milestones and partnerships are real, but the real question is whether they are beginning to translate into more stable revenue visibility. That is why the upcoming earnings call matters so much. It is less about one quarter in isolation and more about whether management can narrow the gap between operational progress and financial credibility.

ADMA Biologics, Culper Research, and the revenue quality debate ( $ADMA ) (UPDATED march 27 2026 ADMA Fires Back at Culper)

On March 24, 2026, Culper Research disclosed a short position in ADMA Biologics and published a report arguing that the company’s growth story would be overstated by what it described as a channel stuffing scheme involving rebates, extended payment terms, inventory loading, and an undisclosed related-party distributor. Public summaries of the report say Culper’s central claim is stark: absent the alleged sell-in distortion, ADMA’s 2025 revenue would have declined rather than grown. That was enough to break the prior narrative around ADMA as a premium commercial plasma story with unusually strong operating leverage.

Spire Global ( SPIR ): Satellite Data Monetization Re-Rated by Execution, Not Hype

Spire Global is no longer an early-stage “space story” being valued on imagination alone. The company has already built and deployed one of the largest listening constellations in low Earth orbit, it has exited a major strategic restructuring, and it now trades on a far more concrete question: can the business convert its satellite infrastructure and government relevance into durable profitability?

That question became more important after the company’s fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on March 18, 2026. Reported fourth-quarter revenue was $15.8 million. Because the maritime business was sold in April 2025, the year-over-year comparison needs context: management highlighted that fourth-quarter revenue was up 44% versus the comparable ex-maritime base, while the company also improved non-GAAP gross margin to 43%, reduced operating cash outflow to -$4.3 million, and closed the year with $81.8 million in cash and no debt.

Satellogic ( $SATL )Slingshot expansion, Merlin roadmap and the next defense-style de-risking cycle

The March 24 update matters because it pushes Satellogic further away from the old “small-cap imagery vendor” label and deeper into a more valuable identity: a company trying to build low-latency, defense-relevant, AI-enabled orbital infrastructure. Slingshot II and III expand the ONR-linked roadmap to eight dedicated ISL-ready assets, while Merlin remains the bigger medium-term prize: a daily global one-meter monitoring architecture meant to scale persistent awareness, not just occasional imaging.

For Merlintrader readers, the setup is familiar. The story you already outlined in earlier SATL pieces still holds: this is a volatile, execution-sensitive space small-cap, but the quality of the narrative has improved. Revenue accelerated sharply in Q4 2025, full-year revenue rose to $17.7 million, the balance sheet is much stronger than a year ago, and remaining performance obligations of $65.1 million give the company more visibility than it used to have. At the same time, the stock is still a classic “prove it” story: the market wants delivery, not just roadmap slides.

Ocugen Inc ( $OCGN ) after the OCU410 12-month readout: alive, arguable, and still risky

There is a lazy way to write this story and a careful way to write it. The lazy way is to say OCU410 either crushed expectations or disappointed the market. The careful way is to admit that the March 24 readout leaves enough evidence for both sides to keep arguing. Ocugen reported that the medium dose chosen for Phase 3 showed a 31% reduction in geographic atrophy lesion growth versus control at 12 months with statistical significance, a 27% slower decline in ellipsoid zone integrity, and no OCU410-related serious adverse events or adverse events of special interest reported to date. That is enough to keep the program alive, credible, and worthy of ongoing attention. It is not enough to eliminate all doubt.

AeroVironment ( $AVAV ): Defense Tech Giant in Integration Mode

In March 2026, AVAV reported Q3 results that exposed cracks in the integration story: revenue of $408M and record backlog of $1.1B masked a $151.3M goodwill impairment (BlueHalo), net loss of $156.6M, and revised guidance now expecting a loss of $218–201M despite $1.85–1.95B revenue. The market repriced sharply downward, then stabilized.

The bull case: validated DoD procurement relationships, $2.1B quarterly bookings, massive secular tailwinds in drone warfare and counter-UAS demand, and optionality from space/directed energy segments.

The bear case: BlueHalo integration is tougher than expected, margins are under pressure, negative free cash flow is burning through runway, and competition from nimble startups (Anduril, Shield AI) and larger primes is intensifying.

IDEAYA Biosciences ($IDYA): darovasertib timing shift, OptimUM-02 setup, and a full pre-readout deep dive

IDEAYA is one of the more interesting oncology small/mid-cap stories going into spring 2026 because the company sits at the intersection of three things the market tends to pay up for: a registrational catalyst, a platform narrative that is broader than a single-asset biotech, and a balance sheet that is unusually strong for a company still in the clinical stage. The key near-term question is not whether IDEAYA has science or ambition. It does. The real question is narrower and more practical: can darovasertib plus crizotinib in first-line HLA-A2-negative metastatic uveal melanoma deliver a result in OptimUM-02 that is clean enough, strong enough, and regulatorily usable enough to support a credible accelerated-approval path in the United States?

Palantir ( $PLTR ) and the Pentagon raise the stakes: Maven becomes core military infrastructure, not just another AI tool

The Pentagon’s move to formalize Maven as a “program of record” matters far beyond one headline. It strengthens Palantir’s strategic position, deepens its lock-in inside U.S. defense workflows and forces the market to ask a bigger question: is PLTR still just an AI trade, or is it becoming a permanent layer of military decision infrastructure?

The Vortex of War: between the Iranian threat, energy chaos, and political incoherence

This article starts from a position many investors and Western policymakers share, but often fail to articulate carefully enough. Iran’s nuclear ambitions are not a theoretical concern. A state that has openly threatened another state’s existence cannot be treated as if its strategic intentions are morally or geopolitically neutral. There is a coherent argument that Tehran had to be stopped, contained, or at least denied a plausible path to a nuclear endgame.

The Ten Commandments of the Trader

10 commandaments

Why these commandments matter
Many people think trading is mainly about finding the right stock, the right indicator, or the right catalyst. In reality, the hardest part is not the entry itself. The hardest part is making repeated decisions under uncertainty without letting emotion, urgency, ego, or frustration take control.

That is why these commandments matter. They are not magic rules and they do not guarantee profits. What they do is far more useful: they help traders avoid some of the most common and expensive mistakes, especially in volatile environments where speed and pressure can easily lead to poor judgment.

This page is designed as educational content for readers who want a stronger foundation. Before strategy comes discipline. Before conviction comes risk management. Before confidence comes process.

Omeros Corporation ( $OMER ) YARTEMLEA launch, balance-sheet reset, and the real execution test 

Omeros is no longer primarily a regulatory story. That phase changed materially on December 23, 2025, when the FDA approved YARTEMLEA for hematopoietic stem cell transplant-associated thrombotic microangiopathy in adults and pediatric patients aged two and older. From that point forward, the central question stopped being “can they get this approved?” and became “can they turn a highly specialized approval into durable commercial traction inside a very concentrated transplant market?”

Weekly recap and next-week setup March 23–27

The week that just ended was not simply another down week for U.S. equities. It was a week in which the market became more severe, more selective and much less willing to pay for fragile narratives. The S&P 500 closed Friday at 6,506.48, the Dow at 45,577.47, the Nasdaq at 21,647.61 and the Russell 2000 at 2,438.45, extending the losing streak for the major U.S. indexes to a fourth consecutive week. The Russell 2000 is now in correction territory from its January high, which matters because it says the weakness is not just about a few mega-cap wobbles. The market is repricing risk appetite more broadly, especially for smaller and more rate-sensitive equities

Travere Therapeutics ( $TVTX ) pre-catalyst deep dive PDUFA APR 13 2026

TVTX is not the typical pre-PDUFA biotech where everything depends on one unproven idea and the balance sheet is already screaming for a financing. Travere enters the April 13, 2026 decision with a drug already commercial in the United States, a meaningful revenue base, a still-usable cash position, and a management team that has already taken FILSPARI from accelerated approval to full approval in IgA nephropathy. That matters. It changes the quality of the setup. It means the market is not being asked to price pure hope. It is being asked to decide how much additional franchise value belongs to FILSPARI if the FDA agrees that the FSGS package is strong enough for approval.

Milestone Pharmaceuticals ( $MIST ) after CARDAMYST approval: from binary FDA story to commercial execution test

Milestone Pharmaceuticals is no longer the same equity story it was in the second half of 2025. For months, the stock traded primarily as a regulatory event setup tied to the resubmitted U.S. application for etripamil in paroxysmal supraventricular tachycardia, or PSVT. That phase ended on December 12, 2025, when the FDA approved CARDAMYST, the company’s first commercial product, as a self-administered nasal spray for the conversion of acute symptomatic episodes of PSVT to sinus rhythm in adults. Since that moment, the question has changed completely. The market is no longer asking whether Milestone can get approved. It is asking whether Milestone can launch, obtain access, build prescription momentum, sustain funding discipline, and then extend the same franchise into atrial fibrillation with rapid ventricular rate, or AFib-RVR.