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Nasdaq: $SATL
Updated August 4, 2026
Earth Observation + Defense Intelligence
$SATLSatellogic Inc. (Nasdaq: $SATL) Stock Hub: The Q2 2026 Print, the First Positive Operating Income, and Where the 259% Revenue Growth Came From
Satellogic reported second quarter 2026 results after the close on August 5, 2026: revenue up 259% year on year to $15.9 million, the first quarter of positive operating income and positive adjusted EBITDA in the company’s history, $112.8 million of cash and remaining performance obligations of $80.7 million. Everything below is drawn from the company’s SEC filings and its own press releases: the composition of that revenue growth and how much of it is recurring, the $20.0 million net loss and the non-cash charge behind it, the convertible note principal cut from $30 million to $18 million through conversion into stock, the 18-satellite constellation and the Merlin build, and a chief financial officer who delivered the best quarter in company history three weeks before leaving.
Q2 2026 revenue $15.9M, up 259%
First positive operating income: $0.3M
Adjusted EBITDA +$2.8M
Cash $112.8M at Jun 30, 2026
RPO $80.7M
Stockholders’ deficit $25.5M
Last close$4.82 on Aug 5, 2026 (+7.35%), before the release
Market capAbout $714 million
Next catalystCFO transition Aug 21; first Merlin launch Q4 2026
Drawdown from May 26 peak-55.1% from the $10.74 close
Get every Merlintrader report in real time on Telegram: join @merlintraderpub_com.
The second quarter 2026 results, released August 5, 2026
Satellogic published second quarter results at 4:05 p.m. Eastern on Wednesday, August 5, 2026, after the close of the regular Nasdaq session, with the conference call at 4:30 p.m. Eastern. Revenue rose 259% year on year to $15.9 million, operating income turned positive at $0.3 million and adjusted EBITDA at $2.8 million, both firsts in the company’s history. Cash stood at $112.8 million and remaining performance obligations at $80.7 million. The headline net loss was $20.0 million, and the reason it sits alongside positive operating income is set out below. The chief financial officer transition, disclosed on July 28, was also on the agenda for the call.
Conference callAug 5, 4:30 p.m. ETSecond quarter ended June 30, 2026, with a slide presentation
Dial-in1-877-407-0752International 1-201-389-0912, conference code 13761600
HostsKargieman and DunnChief executive and the departing chief financial officer, then questions
ReplayThrough Aug 19, 20261-844-512-2921 in the U.S., 1-412-317-6671 international, pin 13761600
Direct links: live webcast and slide stream · the July 22, 2026 press release with the dial-ins · financial results archive · investor relations events calendar.
Second quarter 2025 revenue was $4.440 million, so any year-on-year growth percentage published on August 5 will look large. What carries information is the sequence against the first quarter of 2026: revenue of $6.107 million, cost of revenue excluding depreciation of $1.451 million, adjusted EBITDA of negative $4.234 million, operating cash flow of positive $0.158 million, cash of $121.885 million, remaining performance obligations of $64.784 million, and a share count that had reached 148,244,097 by May 4, 2026. Those six numbers, plus whether the constellation has moved off 18 satellites, are the quarter.
Executive summary
Satellogic sells very high-resolution Earth observation imagery and, increasingly, whole satellites. It designs, assembles and tests its own spacecraft in a free-trade zone in Montevideo, Uruguay, and sells the output either as data and analytics subscriptions or, under its Sovereignty Government Program, as hardware transferred to a national customer. It is headquartered in Davidson, North Carolina, and completed its domestication from the British Virgin Islands to Delaware on March 26, 2025.
The operating business has inflected. First quarter 2026 revenue of $6.107 million was up 80% on the $3.387 million of a year earlier, cost of revenue excluding depreciation was only $1.451 million, adjusted EBITDA loss narrowed to $4.234 million from $6.233 million, and the company generated positive net cash from operating activities of $0.158 million — the first positive operating quarter in its filed history. Cash stood at $121.885 million on March 31, 2026 against a first-quarter free cash outflow of $5.392 million.
Everything else about the equity is more complicated. The reported net loss for the quarter was $118.302 million, of which $113.011 million was a non-cash change in the fair value of financial instruments. Total liabilities of $213.592 million exceeded total assets of $188.063 million, leaving a stockholders’ deficit of $25.529 million. The largest liability is a $30.0 million secured convertible note held by Tether Investments Limited, convertible at $1.20 per share and carried at a fair value of $142.570 million. Warrants, notes, options, restricted stock units and earnout shares together represent 80,511,271 potential shares against 143,241,496 outstanding at quarter end.
First positive operating cash flow quarter
Revenue +80% year on year
Constellation 18 satellites, not growing
Dilution overhang 56% of shares out
Short interest 18.4% of float
Three categories should be kept apart, because they are routinely blended: what is contracted, funded and inside remaining performance obligations; what is announced with a headline value but not yet visible in the order book; and what is capability positioning, where no economics have been disclosed at all. Satellogic has real items in all three, and the third is the one most often priced as though it belonged in the first.
Market snapshot as of the August 5, 2026 close
Share price$4.82August 5, 2026 close, up 7.35% on the session. The results were released after that close.
Market cap$714.3MOn the last filed count of 148.2 million Class A and Class B shares at $4.82. The Q2 filing will show a higher count after the 10.0 million shares issued on conversion.
Short interest18.39% of floatFloat about 107.6 million shares
Institutional ownership39.47%Insiders about 27.44%
| Measure | Value | What it says |
|---|---|---|
| Price performance, one week | +11.72% | No company announcement accompanied the August 3 move; other small-cap space names also closed higher. |
| Price performance, one month | -27.16% | The de-rating that began in June was still running into late July. |
| Price performance, one quarter | -44.92% | The quarter contains the entire round trip from the May peak. |
| Price performance, year to date | +111.50% | From the December 31, 2025 close of $1.87. Both the gain and the drawdown are real; the starting point decides which one you see. |
| Price performance, one year | +21.32% | A volatile holding rather than a steady compounder. |
| Sell-side consensus target | $11.28 | Finviz Elite, August 3, 2026. An average of third-party estimates, not a company figure and not a Merlintrader forecast. |
| Twelve-month price range | $1.255 to $12.00 | Intraday low November 21, 2025, intraday high May 26, 2026. The highest close of the period, $10.74, was also May 26, 2026. |
Price, market capitalization, float, short interest, ownership percentages, average volume and the consensus target are from Finviz Elite as of the August 3, 2026 close, cross-checked against an independent end-of-day quote provider that reported the same $3.955 close. All revenue, margin, cash, share-count, liability and order-book figures come from Satellogic’s own SEC filings and press releases, not from data aggregators.
Verified developments up to August 4, 2026
August 5, 2026 — second quarter results: the first profitable quarter at the operating line
Revenue of $15.9 million against $4.4 million a year earlier, up 259%. Operating income of $0.3 million against a $6.3 million loss, and adjusted EBITDA of positive $2.8 million against a $3.9 million loss. Both are firsts. Cash and equivalents $112.8 million, up from $94.4 million at December 31. Remaining performance obligations $80.7 million, of which $45.8 million is expected to be recognised within a year.
Where the growth came from matters more than the percentage. Of the $11.5 million of additional revenue, $8.3 million came from Space Systems, which went from $0.5 million to $8.8 million: building and selling satellites, including a $12 million sale of a commissioned in-orbit NewSat to a sovereign defence customer and the first of two satellites delivered to Portugal’s CEiiA programme under an $18 million contract. That is real revenue and it is contracted, but it is lumpy hardware, not a subscription. The recurring line, Data & Analytics including Constellation-as-a-Service, went from $4.0 million to $7.1 million, up 78%. Both numbers are good. They are not the same kind of good.
The $20.0 million net loss is mostly the share price. It includes a $19.7 million non-cash charge from remeasuring the secured convertible notes, warrants and earnout liabilities, driven by the stock rising during the quarter. Those instruments are liabilities that get more expensive on paper as the equity appreciates. It does not consume cash and it says nothing about operations, but it will keep recurring while those instruments are outstanding.
One line needs reading twice. GAAP net cash used in operating activities was $8.6 million in the quarter, worse than the $4.3 million a year earlier. The company also presents a non-GAAP Adjusted Operating Cash Flow of negative $0.3 million, which adds back $8.3 million of proceeds from the satellite sale that GAAP requires to be classified within investing activities. Both figures are correct and the company discloses the bridge openly; which one is the better description depends on whether selling in-orbit satellites is treated as ordinary trading or as disposing of assets.
The balance sheet got simpler. During the quarter the noteholder converted $12.0 million of principal into 10.0 million Class A shares, cutting outstanding secured convertible note principal from $30.0 million at the end of 2025 to $18.0 million. Less debt, more shares: the dilution overhang discussed further down this page is being converted into actual shares rather than removed.
On the constellation, the Merlin build stays on schedule for a first launch in the fourth quarter of 2026 and full operational capability in the first half of 2027, and the company repeats that it is fully funded by existing customer contracts with no incremental capital required to reach those milestones.
July 30, 2026 — BlackRock crosses 5%
BlackRock, Inc. filed a Schedule 13G reporting 7,218,113 Class A shares, or 5.2% of the class, as of June 30, 2026 — the first manager of that size on the register.
July 28, 2026 — the chief financial officer sets a date
A Form 8-K disclosed that on July 22, 2026 Rick Dunn notified the company that his resignation as chief financial officer will be effective August 21, 2026. If no permanent successor is appointed by then, the company expects to name Dustin Greer, corporate controller since 2022, as interim chief financial officer. The same filing confirmed the August 5 earnings call.
June 30 and June 23, 2026 — two analytics partnerships
Partnerships announced with SpaceKnow and with SynMax to extend persistent global intelligence across commercial, government and defense markets. Neither carried a contract value, a term or a minimum commitment: these are distribution channels, not disclosed revenue.
June 8, 2026 — the chief financial officer steps down
The company and Mr. Dunn mutually agreed he would step down at the end of a transition period. Mr. Kargieman said he leaves the company “in its strongest financial position in corporate history”. The shares closed at $6.99 that day, against $9.85 on May 28.
June 1 to June 3, 2026 — board and annual meeting
The board grew from seven to eight directors with the appointment of Michael E. Williamson, a retired U.S. Army lieutenant general, as an independent Class III director. At the annual meeting on June 3, Tom Killalea and Miguel Gutiérrez were elected as Class II directors and Ernst & Young LLP was ratified as auditor for fiscal 2026.
May 26, 2026 — an $18 million defense contract, and a 10 million share sale
Two separate, verifiable events fell on the same day. Satellogic announced a one-year contract valued at more than $18 million with an international defense customer for persistent, high-frequency imagery, describing an expansion from trial to full deployment in under six months. Separately, a Form 4 filed on May 28 reported that Liberty 77 Capital L.P. — the manager affiliated with director Steven T. Mnuchin — sold 10,000,000 Class A shares at $9.77 on May 26, with a Form 144 filed the same day. The stock closed at $10.74 that session, its highest close of the last twelve months.
May 11 and May 12, 2026 — first quarter results and the 10-Q
Revenue of $6.107 million, up 80% year on year; an operating loss of $6.361 million; adjusted EBITDA of negative $4.234 million; positive net cash from operating activities of $0.158 million; cash of $121.885 million. The reported net loss of $118.302 million was driven by a $113.011 million non-cash change in the fair value of financial instruments.
April 30, 2026 — $12 million in-orbit satellite sale
A $12 million agreement to deliver an in-orbit NewSat satellite to a sovereign defense customer — the second disclosed transaction of its type after the January sale of NewSat-34.
March 18 to March 26, 2026 — Merlin and the defense credentials
The company introduced Merlin, an artificial-intelligence-first constellation for daily global monitoring at one-meter resolution, with the first satellite expected in the fourth quarter of 2026. On March 24 it announced an expansion of its partnership with IDT and the U.S. Office of Naval Research covering Phases II and III of the Slingshot program, and on March 25 it appointed Vice Admiral (Ret.) Frank D. Whitworth III, the former director of the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, as a strategic adviser. Neither carried a disclosed value.
March 6, 2026 — the president resigns
Mathew Tirman resigned as president and as an employee, effective March 31, 2026. The 10-K states the resignation did not result from any disagreement, that he received no severance, and that the company had no immediate plans to fill the role.
January 27 and January 29, 2026 — capital, Albania and the first in-orbit sale
A registered direct offering of 7,399,578 Class A shares at approximately $4.73 closed, raising gross proceeds of about $35 million and net proceeds of $32.801 million. The sale of NewSat-34, a legacy in-orbit Mark IV-g satellite, to High Earth Orbit Robotics completed the same day, and two days later the company signed an 11-month monitoring extension with the Government of Albania.
December 31, 2025 — the Portugal agreement
An $18 million agreement with CEiiA, the Centre of Engineering and Product Development in Portugal, for the supply and in-orbit delivery of two NewSat Mark V satellites. The 10-K states that ownership and operational control were expected to transfer in the second quarter of 2026, placing the revenue recognition inside the quarter reported on August 5.
Five charts that frame the August 5 print
Every figure below is taken from a filed statement. Where a quarter is derived rather than reported, the derivation is given so the arithmetic can be checked.
What the company actually sells
Satellogic reports one operating segment but discloses revenue along two business lines, which behave very differently.
Data & Analytics, including capacity as a service
Imagery and subscription revenue: tasked collection, area monitoring, and increasingly a productized persistent-monitoring service. It produced $4.644 million of the $6.107 million of first quarter 2026 revenue, against $3.006 million a year earlier, and $15.996 million of the $17.707 million full-year 2025 total, against $11.113 million in 2024 — about 44% growth on the full-year comparison. The product wrapper is Aleph Observer, announced February 23, 2026, described as a shift away from episodic tasking towards ongoing monitoring of hundreds of sites daily with predictable delivery. A subscription covering a defined set of points of interest is easier to renew, expand and forecast than an imagery order book. The May 26, 2026 contract, worth more than $18 million over one year with an international defense customer, is this model.
Space Systems
Selling satellites. It produced $1.463 million in the first quarter of 2026 against $0.381 million a year earlier, and $1.711 million for the whole of 2025 against $1.757 million in 2024. Small and extremely lumpy, with two forms: building new spacecraft for a national customer, as in the $18 million CEiiA agreement for two NewSat Mark V satellites for Portugal; and selling a satellite already in orbit, as with NewSat-34 to High Earth Orbit Robotics on January 27, 2026 and the $12 million agreement announced on April 30, 2026.
The in-orbit sale is the most interesting structural item in the business and it cuts both ways. It converts an ageing asset into cash at a good price without a launch, and the company often keeps an operational support role afterwards. It also removes a satellite from the constellation. Anyone modeling revenue growth from this line has to model collection capacity going down at the same time.
Where the revenue comes from geographically
| Country or region | Q1 2026 | Q1 2025 | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | $1.876M | $2.561M | Down 26.8% year on year, and down from the largest single country to second place. |
| Australia | $1.217M | $0.156M | The High Earth Orbit Robotics relationship, including NewSat-34. |
| Malaysia | $0.814M | $0.008M | Essentially new. |
| Albania | $0.400M | $0.412M | Flat. The country-wide monitoring contract was extended for eleven months in January. |
| All other | $1.800M | $0.250M | Broadening, which is what the expanded sales force is for. |
| Total | $6.107M | $3.387M | By region: Americas $2.028M, Europe $1.124M, Asia and Asia Pacific $2.955M. |
That first row deserves to be read twice. Satellogic moved to a Delaware domicile on March 26, 2025 with the stated purpose of competing for United States and allied government contracts. In the first full quarter after that move was a year old, United States revenue fell by $0.685 million year on year, and the growth came from Australia, Malaysia and a broadening tail.
The constellation: capacity is the constraint, and it is not growing
The company’s central claim is unit economics. The 10-K describes the NewSat Mark V as having a mass under 50 kilograms, a cost of approximately $1.3 million including launch, and a daily imaging capability of over 300,000 square kilometers at 50 centimeter resolution, and states that its patented camera design, using adaptive optics with a smaller aperture, collects roughly ten times more data from orbit than competitors. The fleet is where discipline has to be applied. Two primary statements exist, three weeks apart:
- The Form 10-K filed March 19, 2026 states that the constellation consisted of 19 NewSat satellites in orbit, 18 of them operational and one used for testing.
- The Form 10-Q filed May 12, 2026 states that as of March 31, 2026 there were 18 satellites in orbit, including 16 operational satellites, one in commissioning and one for testing.
Both are the company’s own words: the operational count went from 18 to 16 in one quarter. Selling in-orbit assets, a deliberate strategy and a source of high-margin revenue, is one reason a constellation shrinks; ordinary end-of-life attrition is another. But the phrase “one of the largest high-resolution constellations commercially available”, used in the same 10-Q paragraph, sits alongside a fleet currently going the other way, and it means the capacity available to sell in the second half of 2026 is not obviously larger than it was in the first.
The company’s answer is Merlin, expected to launch its first satellite in the fourth quarter of 2026 and to be fully operational in the first half of 2027, delivering daily global monitoring at one-meter resolution and using inter-satellite links to task the existing fleet. The phrase that matters most is that the annual report calls it “fully funded by existing customer contracts”. If that is accurate, the largest planned capacity expansion is not a call on the equity market. If it is not, it becomes the reason for the next raise.
Two numbers give the near-term scale. Non-cancellable launch service purchase commitments were approximately $8.4 million for the year ending December 31, 2026 and $10.3 million in total through 2028. Capital expenditure in the first quarter of 2026 was $5.550 million against $1.913 million a year earlier, consistent with a build cycle starting rather than finishing. Letters of credit guaranteeing performance obligations totalled approximately $7.9 million, with none drawn.
The second quarter numbers, line by line
| Measure | Q2 2026 | Q2 2025 | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $15.9M | $4.4M | Up 259%. Data & Analytics $7.1M, Space Systems $8.8M. |
| Data & Analytics, including CaaS | $7.1M | $4.0M | Up 78%. This is the recurring engine. |
| Space Systems | $8.8M | $0.5M | Satellite build and sale. $8.3M of the $11.5M total increase sits here, and it is lumpy by nature. |
| Cost of revenue, excluding depreciation | $2.8M | $1.2M | Up 137%, on higher Space Systems costs tied to product revenue. |
| Engineering | $3.1M | $2.3M | Up 32%, on headcount and stock-based compensation. |
| Selling, general and administrative | $8.6M | $5.4M | Up 61%, on headcount, stock compensation and selling activity. Last year this line was flat while revenue grew; this quarter it was not. |
| Operating income | $0.3M | $(6.3)M | First positive operating quarter in company history, a $6.6M swing. |
| Net loss | $(20.0)M | $(6.7)M | Includes a $19.7M non-cash fair-value charge on notes, warrants and earnouts, driven by the share price rising. |
| Adjusted EBITDA, non-GAAP | $2.8M | $(3.9)M | First positive quarter. Excludes stock-based compensation and fair-value movements. |
| Net cash used in operating activities | $(8.6)M | $(4.3)M | GAAP. The $8.3M of satellite sale proceeds are in investing activities. |
| Adjusted Operating Cash Flow, non-GAAP | $(0.3)M | $(4.3)M | Same figure with the satellite proceeds added back. Company-defined measure. |
| Cash and equivalents | $112.8M | $94.4M at Dec 31, 2025 | Up $18.4M in six months. |
| Secured convertible note principal | $18.0M | $30.0M at Dec 31, 2025 | $12.0M converted into 10.0 million Class A shares during the quarter. |
| Remaining performance obligations | $80.7M | $64.8M at Mar 31, 2026 | $45.8M within one year, $9.3M in years one to two, $7.2M in years two to three, $18.4M thereafter. |
The first quarter comparison that follows is kept as filed, because it is the last set of figures with a full Form 10-Q behind it. The second quarter table above comes from the earnings release; the 10-Q will add the balance sheet detail, the share count and the segment note.
| Measure | Q1 2026 | Q1 2025 | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $6.107M | $3.387M | Up 80.3%. Data & Analytics $4.644M, Space Systems $1.463M. |
| Cost of revenue, excluding depreciation | $1.451M | $1.237M | Up only 17%, on higher ground station costs. Implied gross margin excluding depreciation of 76.2% against 63.5%. |
| Engineering | $3.080M | $2.493M | Includes research and development of $1.4 million in both periods. |
| Selling, general and administrative | $6.545M | $6.485M | Flat while revenue grew 80%. This is where the operating leverage comes from. |
| Operating loss | $(6.361)M | $(9.515)M | Narrowed by $3.154 million, including depreciation of $1.392 million. |
| Change in fair value of financial instruments | $(113.011)M | $(22.361)M | Non-cash. Warrant liabilities alone rose from $5.818 million to $31.640 million. |
| Net loss | $(118.302)M | $(32.581)M | $(0.84) per share on 140,942,287 weighted average shares. |
| Adjusted EBITDA (non-GAAP) | $(4.234)M | $(6.233)M | Company definition, recast from January 1, 2026 to exclude interest income. |
| Net cash from operating activities | $0.158M | $(4.722)M | Positive for the first time in the filed history, helped by a $5.716 million fall in receivables. |
| Free cash flow (non-GAAP) | $(5.392)M | $(6.635)M | Operating cash flow less $5.550 million of capital expenditure. |
| Cash and cash equivalents | $121.885M | $17.716M | Plus restricted cash of $7.061 million. |
| Total stockholders’ equity | $(25.529)M | $(83.092)M | A deficit in both periods. Positive $60.526 million at December 31, 2025, swung negative on the fair-value remeasurement. |
| Contract liabilities | $20.981M | $6.308M | Cash collected in advance. Up from $14.609 million at December 31, 2025, mainly one new customer. |
One caution on the headline. Because the secured convertible notes and the warrants are carried at fair value through the income statement, the reported net loss moves with the share price, and in the opposite direction to the shareholder’s experience: when the stock rises, the liabilities rise and the loss gets bigger. The share price fell from $5.44 at March 31, 2026 to $3.955 at August 3, 2026, so if the fair values are marked down at June 30 the second quarter could show a large non-cash gain and positive reported net income that has nothing to do with the business. That happened in the third quarter of 2025, when the company reported net income of $3.967 million, and across 2025 as a whole, when a $31.019 million operating loss became a net loss of only $4.783 million. Read the operating loss and adjusted EBITDA lines, not the bottom line.
Capital structure: the $30 million note that is carried at $142.6 million
This is the most misunderstood item on Satellogic’s balance sheet, and understanding it is most of the work in understanding the equity.
On April 12, 2024 the company’s subsidiary Nettar Group Inc. issued $30.0 million in aggregate principal amount of floating-rate secured convertible promissory notes to Tether Investments Limited, for net proceeds of approximately $27.6 million. They bear interest at SOFR plus 6.50% per annum, which was 10.14% at March 31, 2026, mature on April 12, 2028, are guaranteed by Satellogic Inc. and its material subsidiaries, and are secured by substantially all of the company’s assets, including all of its intellectual property. Additional notes may be issued on the same terms provided aggregate principal outstanding does not exceed $50.0 million.
They convert into Class A common stock at an initial conversion price of $1.20 per share, or 833.33 shares per $1,000 of principal, subject to customary anti-dilution adjustments. On $30.0 million of principal that is 25,000,000 shares, the figure carried in the anti-dilutive securities table. Against 148,244,097 shares outstanding at May 4, 2026, conversion in full would be 14.4% of the enlarged share count.
| Item | Amount | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| Principal plus accrued interest outstanding | $30.1M | At March 31, 2026, per the liquidity discussion in the Form 10-Q. |
| Carrying value on the balance sheet | $142.570M | Fair value option. Was $56.110 million at December 31, 2025 and $88.970 million at September 30, 2025. |
| Shares on conversion | 25,000,000 | At the $1.20 conversion price. |
| Change of control put | 105% | Repurchase for cash at the greater of 105% of redemption value or 105% of the then-prevailing conversion value, plus accrued interest. Delisting counts as a change of control. |
| Default prepayment penalty | 5% | On the greater of outstanding principal and the then-prevailing conversion value. |
| Covenants | Restrictive | Limits on debt, liens, dividends and other restricted payments, asset sales and affiliate transactions. |
Three consequences follow. First, the $142.570 million liability is not $142.570 million of debt; the cash claim is about $30.1 million. It is an accounting measure of the equity value the note holder is entitled to at a $1.20 strike, and it moves almost one-for-one with the share price. Second, because the put and the default penalty are struck on conversion value rather than principal, a higher share price makes the cash cost of any forced settlement larger, not smaller. Third, the security package covers the intellectual property, which is the whole of the company’s technological advantage.
Around the notes sit the warrants: Liberty Strategic Capital holds warrants over 5,000,000 shares at $10.00 and 15,000,000 at $15.00, with a further 2,500,000 at $10.00 as an advisory fee warrant held by Liberty 77 Capital; a PIPE investor holds a warrant over 2,500,000 shares at $20.00; and there are the SPAC-legacy $8.63 warrants, including 8,333,333 public warrants. Total warrants excluded from diluted earnings per share as anti-dilutive were 49,184,815 in both the first quarter of 2026 and the first quarter of 2025. The Liberty warrants expire on February 10, 2027 and the PIPE warrant on January 25, 2027, so a meaningful part of that overhang has a clock on it — at $3.955, on current terms, it expires worthless.
Capital has come from discrete placements rather than a continuous program: approximately $20 million at $3.10 in April 2025, $90 million at $3.25 in October 2025, and approximately $35 million at roughly $4.73 in January 2026. That is not the drip of an at-the-market facility, but it is $145 million of equity in ten months against a business that had never generated positive operating cash flow until the first quarter of 2026.
The United States question: domicile, advisers and what has actually been contracted
The most repeated argument for owning this stock is that Satellogic is becoming a United States government supplier. The pieces are real and should be listed accurately, because the gap between the pieces and a funded contract is where the confusion lives.
- The domicile. Satellogic completed its domestication from the British Virgin Islands to Delaware on March 26, 2025 and is now a domestic filer, which is why it files Forms 10-K and 10-Q rather than the 20-F and 6-K it used before.
- The advisers and directors. Vice Admiral (Ret.) Frank D. Whitworth III, the former director of the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, became a strategic adviser on March 25, 2026. Lieutenant General (Ret.) Michael E. Williamson joined the board on June 1, 2026. General Joseph Dunford, the former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, is a director, as is Steven T. Mnuchin through Liberty Strategic Capital.
- The one named United States program. On March 24, 2026 the company announced an expansion of its partnership with IDT and the U.S. Office of Naval Research covering Phases II and III of the Slingshot program. No contract value was disclosed.
What is not in the record matters equally. The company has not announced a prime award under a National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency commercial imagery vehicle, and was not among the ten vendors named by the agency on its Luno A commercial data contract. Nor has it announced a United States Space Force or Space Development Agency award, or a role in the Golden Dome architecture. Where those subjects appear in discussion of $SATL, they are inference rather than disclosure.
The disclosed customer base is heavily international and heavily concentrated. Three customers each accounted for more than 10% of revenue in the first quarter of 2026, together $3.0 million of the $6.107 million, and one customer accounted for 74% of accounts receivable at March 31, 2026, up from 66% at December 31, 2025. The full-year 2025 pattern was the same: three customers above 10%, together $9.6 million of $17.707 million. A business this concentrated can double its revenue on one contract and halve it the same way.
A retired agency director on the advisory board is a credential. A funded task order with a stated value that appears in remaining performance obligations at the next quarter end is revenue. They are not the same thing, and only one of them can be put into a model.
The checklist for any $SATL government headline is short: does it carry a dollar value; did Satellogic itself publish it; is the customer named or described only as “a sovereign defense customer”; and does the amount show up in the next disclosed remaining performance obligations figure? The May 26 contract passes the first three of those tests, and the fourth becomes checkable on August 5.
Management, governance and the executive turnover problem
Emiliano Kargieman co-founded Satellogic in 2010 with Gerardo Richarte and is chief executive and a director. He holds all 10,582,641 shares of Class B common stock, the control mechanism, plus 1,363,623 Class A shares as of the April 10, 2026 record date. Jeff Kerridge joined as senior vice president of global sales in November 2025 after more than 35 years in the geospatial, defense and intelligence sectors, and the company announced further senior defense and intelligence sales hires on May 4, 2026.
| Date | Change | Terms disclosed |
|---|---|---|
| March 6, 2026 | Mathew Tirman resigns as president, effective March 31, 2026 | No severance. No disagreement cited, and no immediate plans to fill the role. |
| June 8, 2026 | Rick Dunn to step down as chief financial officer | Six months of base salary continuation, six months of COBRA expenses and full acceleration of equity, per the April 2026 proxy statement. |
| July 22, 2026 | Mr. Dunn sets his resignation date at August 21, 2026 | Successor search ongoing. Dustin Greer, corporate controller since 2022, expected as interim if no successor is named. |
| June 1, 2026 | Michael E. Williamson joins the board, size increased to eight | Determined independent under SEC rules and Nasdaq listing standards. |
Two of the three most senior operating roles have changed hands or been vacated inside a single fiscal year, and the finance function may be run by an interim officer at the point where the company is asking the market to believe in a funded technology roadmap and a self-financing capacity expansion. The departures were disclosed in an orderly way and no disagreement was cited, but this removes a layer of continuity precisely when continuity would be most useful. The most valuable minutes of the August 5 call may be the ones spent on the chief financial officer search rather than on the quarter.
One item should not be mistaken for a red flag. Satellogic filed a Form 10-K/A and a Form 10-Q/A on June 17, 2026. The explanatory note states that the 10-K/A is an exhibit-only filing made solely to re-file Exhibits 31.1 and 31.2 to include text required in paragraph 4 of the Section 302 certifications, inadvertently omitted from the original March 19, 2026 filing, and that it does not modify any disclosure. There was no restatement. Ernst & Young LLP was ratified as auditor at the June 3, 2026 annual meeting.
A further point of transparency: Satellogic’s filings contain no going-concern qualification and no substantial-doubt disclosure. With $121.885 million of cash at March 31, 2026, a first-quarter free cash outflow of $5.392 million and a cash claim on the convertible notes of about $30.1 million not due until April 2028, near-term liquidity is not the pressure point. The pressure point is what Merlin costs if the customer funding described in the annual report does not fully materialize.
Ownership, positioning and sentiment
Finviz Elite, August 3, 2026: institutional ownership 39.47%, insider ownership 27.44%, short interest 18.39% of a float of about 107.6 million shares, average volume about 8.2 million shares. Roughly one tradeable share in five is sold short.
The April 23, 2026 proxy statement, calculated on 132,660,856 Class A and 10,582,641 Class B shares as of April 10, 2026, listed four holders above 5% of the Class A stock: Liberty Strategic Capital (SATL) Holdings at 42,500,000 shares or 27.39%, of which 22,500,000 were warrant shares; Cantor Fitzgerald, L.P. at 11,836,142 or 8.76%; Pitanga Invest Ltd. at 10,594,133 or 7.99%; and Alyeska Investment Group at 9,056,667 or 6.83%. Emiliano Kargieman holds 100% of the Class B stock. That register has since changed, in one direction.
| Holder | Filing | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Liberty 77 Capital / Liberty Strategic Capital | Form 4 filed May 28, 2026 and Schedule 13D Amendment No. 2 | Sold 10,000,000 Class A shares on May 26, 2026 at $9.77. Beneficial ownership reduced to 32,500,000 shares, or 20.3%. A Form 144 notice of proposed sale was filed the same day. Steven T. Mnuchin, president of the entity that indirectly controls the manager, is a Satellogic director. |
| Cantor Fitzgerald, L.P. | Schedule 13D Amendment No. 8, event date May 15, 2026 | Beneficial ownership of 6,443,736 shares, against 11,836,142 in the April 2026 proxy statement. |
| BlackRock, Inc. | Schedule 13G filed July 30, 2026, event date June 30, 2026 | New disclosed position of 7,218,113 shares, or 5.2% of the class. |
The Liberty sale deserves careful language. The shares were sold on May 26, 2026 at $9.77; the same session produced the highest close of the last twelve months at $10.74; the company published a contract announcement worth more than $18 million on that date; and the August 3, 2026 close of $3.955 is 59.5% below the sale price. All four are matters of public record. Nothing in the filings indicates anything improper, and a fund reducing a position dating to a 2022 investment of $150 million is an ordinary event. What it establishes is that the largest professional holder took liquidity at the top of the range rather than adding, and that is information about supply.
Retail discussion on Stocktwits, Reddit and X clusters around themes rather than filings: Golden Dome, sovereign space, the Tether connection, and the idea that a domesticated United States imagery provider must eventually win agency work. Those are the views of non-professional traders, not analyst research. They explain daily price action well — $SATL moved more than ten percent on August 3 with no company announcement attached — and future revenue not at all.
Catalysts to monitor
Only the first line has a confirmed date. Everything below it is a category of news rather than a scheduled event.
| Catalyst | Timing | What to watch |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 results and conference call | August 5, 2026, call at 4:30 p.m. ET | Sequential revenue against $6.107M, cost of revenue against $1.451M, adjusted EBITDA against negative $4.234M, operating cash flow against positive $0.158M, cash against $121.885M, remaining performance obligations against $64.784M, share count against 148,244,097, and satellites against 18 in orbit. |
| Chief financial officer succession | Resignation effective August 21, 2026 | Whether a permanent successor is named or Dustin Greer serves as interim. |
| CEiiA satellite transfer to Portugal | Expected in Q2 2026 per the 10-K | Whether the $18 million agreement produced Space Systems revenue in the quarter, and how much. |
| First Merlin launch | Q4 2026 per the annual report | A launch contract, a stated window, or slippage. Full capability targeted for H1 2027. |
| Constellation replenishment | Ongoing | Any new NewSat launch. The fleet fell from 19 in orbit at March 19, 2026 to 18 at March 31. |
| Further in-orbit satellite sales | Recurring pattern in 2026 | High-margin and cash-generative, and capacity-reducing at once. Two disclosed in 2026. |
| A named United States government award | Undefined | A funded contract with a stated value would be the first hard evidence for the domestication thesis. |
| Equity issuance | Ongoing | Three placements in ten months raised about $145 million. The next filing cover is the fastest check. |
| Warrant expiries | January 25 and February 10, 2027 | Far out of the money at current prices. |
The two cases, stated as fairly as possible
The constructive case
Revenue has gone from $10.1 million in 2023 to $17.7 million in 2025 to a $6.107 million quarter, with selling, general and administrative expenses flat at about $6.5 million while revenue grew 80%, gross margin excluding depreciation at 76.2%, and a first positive operating cash flow quarter. The company builds satellites at roughly $1.3 million each including launch, which no other high-resolution operator claims, and now sells them outright to sovereign customers as well as selling the data. It holds $121.9 million of cash, has no near-term maturity, no going-concern qualification, and a Merlin roadmap it describes as fully funded by existing customer contracts. If Aleph Observer keeps converting trials into eight-figure annual contracts at the speed of the May 26 deal, the equity is priced at roughly seven times a run-rate revenue line that is still doubling.
The skeptical case
The revenue base is small and dangerously concentrated: one customer is 74% of receivables and three customers are half of revenue. The operational fleet fell from 18 to 16 satellites in one quarter, so capacity, the stated competitive advantage, is currently shrinking. The share count is up 54% in sixteen months and 80.5 million more shares sit behind it, including 25 million from a note struck at $1.20 and secured on the intellectual property. Two of the three most senior executives have left or given notice inside five months, the largest professional holder sold 10 million shares near the twelve-month high, and United States revenue fell year on year in the first full year after a domestication justified by United States government access.
Scenario framework
These are analytical frameworks for organizing what the next few prints could look like. They are not forecasts, targets or recommendations.
| Scenario | What would have to happen | How you would recognize it |
|---|---|---|
| The subscription model takes hold | Data & Analytics revenue keeps compounding, gross margin holds in the mid-seventies, operating cash flow is positive again, remaining performance obligations rise well above $64.8 million, and Merlin’s first satellite ships in the fourth quarter of 2026 without a raise. | Two consecutive positive operating cash flow quarters, a share count that barely moves between filings, and a permanent chief financial officer appointed. |
| Lumpy grind | Revenue oscillates with satellite sales, the Data & Analytics base grows more slowly than 80%, adjusted EBITDA stays modestly negative, and Merlin is funded partly with equity. | A quarter carried by a hardware sale rather than the subscription line, remaining performance obligations flat, and a placement of $30 million to $60 million within twelve months. |
| Concentration bites | The customer that is 74% of receivables does not renew, or the Merlin funding proves less complete than described, or constellation attrition outpaces replenishment and capacity becomes the binding constraint on sales. | A sharp sequential revenue fall with no offsetting announcement, remaining performance obligations declining, a satellite count below 16 operational, or a capital raise below the January 2026 placement price. |
Merlintrader bottom line
Satellogic goes into the August 5 call as two companies wearing the same ticker. One is a small, fast-improving imagery business that grew revenue 80%, holds gross margin excluding depreciation above 75%, kept overheads flat and turned operating cash flow positive for the first time. The other is a capital structure built out of a SPAC merger, a $150 million private placement, three equity placements in ten months and a convertible note struck at $1.20, secured on the intellectual property and carried at nearly five times its cash value.
The hierarchy of evidence is usable. Revenue of $6.107 million, cost of revenue of $1.451 million, cash of $121.885 million, remaining performance obligations of $64.784 million and 148,244,097 shares are facts on filed statements. The $18 million defense contract and the $12 million in-orbit satellite sale are quantified, company-announced orders whose accounting treatment becomes checkable on August 5. The partnerships, the Slingshot expansion and the retired-flag-officer appointments are unpriced positioning. Merlin is a plan with a stated launch quarter and no disclosed economics beyond the assertion that customers have already funded it. Sort the August 5 release into those four buckets before deciding what it changed, and note which numbers appear in the press release and which appear only in the 10-Q filed alongside it — the share count and the satellite count have a habit of living in the second document.
For broader catalyst tracking across the space, defense and artificial intelligence complex, the Merlintrader Free Catalyst Calendar lists the dated events for the sector.
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- Dilution, ATMs and PIPEs: how equity funding actually works — background for the capital-structure section above.
- Weekly Market Pulse — the week ahead across catalysts and earnings.
Primary and reference sources
- Satellogic second quarter 2026 results press release, August 5, 2026: revenue of $15.9 million up 259%, Data & Analytics $7.1 million and Space Systems $8.8 million, operating income of $0.3 million, adjusted EBITDA of $2.8 million, net loss of $20.0 million including a $19.7 million non-cash fair-value charge, cash of $112.8 million, remaining performance obligations of $80.7 million with the four-year run-off, the conversion of $12.0 million of note principal into 10.0 million shares, and the Merlin schedule.
- Satellogic press release, July 22, 2026: the August 5, 2026 conference call at 4:30 p.m. Eastern, dial-ins, conference code 13761600 and replay through August 19, 2026.
- Q2 2026 conference call live webcast and slide stream.
- Form 8-K filed July 28, 2026: Rick Dunn’s resignation effective August 21, 2026, the expected appointment of Dustin Greer as interim chief financial officer, and confirmation of the August 5 call.
- Form 10-Q for the first quarter of 2026, filed May 12, 2026: revenue and its business-line and geographic splits, cost of revenue, operating loss, adjusted EBITDA, free cash flow, cash, contract liabilities, remaining performance obligations, secured convertible note terms, warrant tables, anti-dilutive share counts, customer concentration, launch commitments and the 18-satellite constellation figure.
- Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2025, filed March 19, 2026: full-year revenue and splits, the 19-satellite constellation figure, NewSat Mark V specifications, Merlin timing and funding language, the CEiiA Portugal agreement, the January 2026 and October 2025 offerings, the NewSat-34 sale, the Albania extension and the March 2026 resignation of the president.
- Form 10-K/A filed June 17, 2026: exhibit-only amendment re-filing the Section 302 certifications. No restatement.
- Definitive proxy statement filed April 23, 2026: beneficial ownership as of April 10, 2026 and severance terms.
- Form 4 filed May 28, 2026: Liberty 77 Capital L.P.’s sale of 10,000,000 Class A shares on May 26, 2026 at $9.77, and the related Schedule 13D Amendment No. 2 reporting 32,500,000 shares, or 20.3%.
- BlackRock, Inc. Schedule 13G filed July 30, 2026: 7,218,113 shares, 5.2% of the Class A stock, as of June 30, 2026.
- Form 8-K, June 8, 2026 (chief financial officer transition) · Form 8-K on the appointment of Michael E. Williamson · Form 8-K on the June 3, 2026 annual meeting.
- Satellogic press release, May 26, 2026: the one-year contract valued at more than $18 million with an international defense customer.
- Merlin constellation announcement, March 18, 2026 · IDT and U.S. Office of Naval Research Slingshot expansion, March 24, 2026 · appointment of VADM (Ret.) Frank D. Whitworth III as strategic adviser, March 25, 2026.
- SynMax partnership, June 23, 2026 · SpaceKnow partnership, June 30, 2026 · full press release archive.
- All Satellogic filings on SEC EDGAR, central index key 0001874315.
Share price, market capitalization, float, short interest, ownership percentages, average volume and the consensus target price are from Finviz Elite as of the August 3, 2026 close, cross-checked against an independent end-of-day quote provider. All company financial data, share counts, order-book figures, constellation counts and contract values come from Satellogic’s SEC filings and its own press releases.
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Educational disclaimer
This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, legal advice, tax advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. It has been prepared in line with U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission guidance on financial publishing and does not create any adviser relationship. Small and mid-cap equities, satellite and Earth observation companies, and companies with negative earnings, negative stockholders’ equity or complex convertible capital structures can be highly volatile and risky. Readers should conduct their own due diligence, review official company filings and consult a qualified financial adviser where appropriate. The author and Merlintrader are not acting as registered investment advisers or broker-dealers. All scenarios are analytical frameworks, not predictions or guarantees. Market data, filings and company fundamentals can change quickly, and figures quoted here are accurate as of August 4, 2026.
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