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NYSE: $BKSY
Updated August 6, 2026
Space-Based Intelligence
$BKSYBlackSky Technology (NYSE: $BKSY) Stock Hub: Q2 2026 Revenue Up 50%, the Guidance Arithmetic After a $54M First Half, and the $150M ATM Raise
BlackSky reported second quarter 2026 results before the open on Thursday, August 6, 2026. Revenue reached $33.3 million, up 50% year over year, space-based intelligence and AI services set a record at $24.5 million, and adjusted EBITDA turned positive at $4.7 million. Everything below is drawn from the results release filed the same morning as exhibit 99.1 to an 8-K, plus prior SEC filings: the quarter line by line, the first-half total of $54.1 million and what the reaffirmed $130 million to $150 million outlook now requires from the back half, the $244.1 million cash position built by selling 3.6 million shares for $150 million through the at-the-market programme, and the two thirds of the net-loss improvement that came from derivative accounting rather than operations.
Q2 revenue $33.3M, up 50%
Adjusted EBITDA +$4.7M
FY26 revenue guide $130-150M reaffirmed
First half revenue $54.1M
Cash $244.1M at June 30
Short interest 21.45% of float
Q2 2026 revenue$33.3M
vs $22.2M in Q2 2025, up 50%
vs $22.2M in Q2 2025, up 50%
Q2 2026 adjusted EBITDA+$4.7M
vs -$2.8M in Q2 2025
vs -$2.8M in Q2 2025
Cash and investments, June 30$244.1M
after a $150M ATM raise
after a $150M ATM raise
Shares outstanding40,921,626
July 16, 2026 record date
July 16, 2026 record date
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Q2 2026 results, reported Thursday, August 6, 2026
BlackSky released second quarter results before the open on August 6, 2026, filed the same morning as exhibit 99.1 to an 8-K, with the conference call at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. Total revenue was $33.316 million against $22.199 million a year earlier, an increase of $11.117 million or 50%. Space-based intelligence and AI services set a record at $24.507 million, up 48% from the $16.519 million of the first quarter. Adjusted EBITDA was positive $4.7 million, a 14.2% margin, against a $2.8 million loss in the same quarter of 2025.
Total revenue$33.316MUp 50% from $22.199M in Q2 2025
Space-based intelligence and AI$24.507MRecord, up 48% sequentially
Adjusted EBITDA+$4.7M14.2% margin, up $7.5M year over year
Net loss-$20.834M-$0.54 per share on 38.424M shares
The revenue mix moved in the direction management has been pointing at for a year. Space-based intelligence and AI services, the subscription line, grew from $17.982 million to $24.507 million. Mission solutions, historically the lumpy one, rose from $1.051 million to $5.111 million. Advanced technology programs went from $3.166 million to $3.698 million. Cost of sales fell to 27% of revenue from 28%, and cash operating expenses were essentially flat at $20.0 million against $19.4 million.
Three things the headline number does not say
- Two thirds of the net-loss improvement is accounting, not operations. Net loss narrowed from $41.239 million to $20.834 million, an improvement of $20.405 million. Of that, $13.918 million came from a smaller loss on derivatives, which moves with the share price and the fair value of warrants. The operating loss improved by $6.141 million, from $13.940 million to $7.799 million. Both are real, but only one of them is the business.
- The first half grew 4.5%, not 50%. Six-month revenue was $54.090 million against $51.743 million. The 50% headline compares against a weak second quarter of 2025, and the first quarter of 2026 had fallen 30% year over year. Half-year operating loss actually widened slightly, from $25.919 million to $26.336 million.
- The $150 million of new cash came from selling shares. The company issued 3.6 million shares through the at-the-market programme during the quarter, roughly $41.67 apiece. Cash, restricted cash and short-term investments finished at $244.145 million against $125.554 million at December 31. Weighted average shares rose from 32.473 million to 38.424 million year over year.
The release does not quantify backlog. The chief executive described it as “increasing” without giving a figure, so the $351.6 million reported at March 31 stands as the last verified number until the Form 10-Q is filed. The company also said the next two Gen-3 satellites are expected to launch in the third quarter.
Executive summary
Gen-3 fleet at four satellites, general availability since March 12
FY26 revenue guidance raised to $130-150M
Backlog $351.6M, but only $69.3M scheduled for 2026
Q1 adjusted EBITDA -$5.1M against a +$12-24M full-year guide
Share count up 13.9% from December 31 to July 16
Short interest 21.45% of float
BlackSky sells space-based intelligence rather than pictures. The company designs, builds, owns and operates a constellation of small satellites in low Earth orbit, then delivers imagery and machine-generated analytics through BlackSky Spectra, its tasking and analytics software platform. The 10-K describes the architecture as being built for revisit rather than coverage: the constellation flies in inclined orbits and is optimized for repeated looks at a defined set of high-value locations, which BlackSky says can be monitored up to fifteen times a day from dawn to dusk. That is a deliberately different design choice from operators whose mission is to map the entire planet on a routine cycle, and it drives everything about the cost structure.
The technical story through 2025 and the first half of 2026 is the arrival of the third-generation satellites. Gen-3 carries 35-centimeter electro-optical resolution and 1.2-meter short-wave infrared imaging for low-light and night collection, and improved communications that shorten the time between collection and delivery. The third Gen-3 entered commercial operations in December 2025, three weeks after launch. The fourth achieved first light within hours of launch in March 2026 and was commissioned in under a week, which is what allowed BlackSky to open Gen-3 general availability to its whole customer base on March 12, 2026. Four Gen-3 satellites on orbit is the number the company has repeated in its own releases through April 2026, and no release since has raised it.
The commercial story is that international governments have overtaken the U.S. government as the larger revenue source. In the first quarter of 2026, international government customers produced $10.7 million of the $20.8 million total, against $9.2 million from U.S. federal agencies and $0.8 million from commercial. Backlog has been running at roughly nine-tenths international since late 2025. The pattern in the announcements is consistent: a small early-access pilot, then a subscription, then a larger multi-year Assured contract with guaranteed capacity, and in the largest cases the sale of a satellite plus ground infrastructure and operations to a customer that wants a sovereign system.
The financial story is harder. Revenue is lumpy because a single satellite-delivery milestone can move a quarter by ten million dollars. First quarter 2026 revenue of $20.8 million was down from $29.5 million a year earlier, and the company attributes the whole difference to a $9.0 million mission solutions milestone that fell in the first quarter of 2025. Adjusted EBITDA swung from a $8.8 million profit in the fourth quarter of 2025 to a $5.1 million loss in the first quarter of 2026 on the same seasonality. Meanwhile the constellation is being built out: $46.6 million of capital expenditure in 2025 and $50 million to $60 million guided for 2026, funded by a mixture of the July 2025 convertible notes and steady equity issuance.
Which brings up the number that has moved the most. Shares outstanding were 35.930 million at December 31, 2025, 36.767 million at March 31, 2026, and 40,921,626 at the July 16, 2026 proxy record date. On May 22, 2026 the company signed a new at-the-market sales agreement for up to $250 million, replacing a smaller December 2025 program. The August 6 filing will show how much of the second-quarter increase came from that program and at what average price.
Market snapshot
Price and market data below are from Finviz Elite, cross-checked against an independent end-of-day provider. The last full session before this update was Wednesday, August 5, 2026, which closed at $25.18. The stock traded higher in the pre-market session that followed the results release.
| Item | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Last close (August 5, 2026) | $25.18 | Independent end-of-day provider |
| Market capitalization | About $1.03 billion | 40,921,626 shares at the August 5 close |
| Shares outstanding | 40,921,626 | Proxy statement, July 16, 2026 record date |
| Float | 36.29 million | Finviz |
| Short interest | 21.45% of float | Finviz |
| Institutional ownership | 58.79% | Finviz |
| Insider ownership | 11.32% | Finviz |
| Average daily volume | About 2.0 million shares | Finviz |
| Consensus target price | $39.06 | Finviz analyst mean, not a Merlintrader view |
| Performance, year to date | +29.60% | Finviz |
| Performance, one year | +18.13% | Finviz |
| Performance, three months | -33.11% | Finviz |
| Performance, one week | +10.71% | Finviz |
One reconciliation worth knowing about. Finviz’s market capitalization field for $BKSY currently implies about 40.9 million shares, which matches the proxy, while its separate “shares outstanding” field still shows 36.77 million, which is the March 31 figure from the Form 10-Q. The two are four million shares apart. Any market-cap or per-share calculation done from a screener before the August 6 filing should be checked against the share count in the proxy rather than the screener’s own field.
Enterprise value input$209.2M debtPrincipal at March 31, 2026: $185.0M convertible notes plus $24.2M satellite launch vendor financing
Cash and investments$117.5MCash, restricted cash and short-term investments at March 31, 2026
Stockholders’ equity$80.8MDown from $94.9M at December 31, 2025
Accumulated deficit$756.1MAt March 31, 2026
Three months of price action have been considerably weaker than the year-to-date figure suggests. The stock is up almost 30% since January but down about a third over the last quarter, which places the August 6 print into a market that has already reset expectations once this year.
Verified developments, most recent first
August 6, 2026
Second quarter results. Revenue $33.316 million, up 50% year over year, with record space-based intelligence and AI services revenue of $24.507 million. Adjusted EBITDA positive $4.7 million. Net loss $20.834 million, or $0.54 per share. Cash, restricted cash and short-term investments $244.145 million after issuing 3.6 million shares for $150 million through the at-the-market programme. Capital expenditure $15.4 million. Full-year guidance reaffirmed at $130 million to $150 million of revenue, $12 million to $24 million of adjusted EBITDA and $50 million to $60 million of capital expenditure. The company said the next two Gen-3 satellites are expected to launch in the third quarter, and disclosed an eight-figure NRO award for AROS, a digital mapping system.
July 30, 2026
BlackSky announced participation at two investor conferences: a panel with chief executive Brian O’Toole at the Canaccord Genuity 46th Annual Growth Conference in Boston on August 11, 2026, and a virtual fireside chat with chief financial officer Henry Dubois at the Oppenheimer 29th Annual Technology, Internet and Communications Conference on August 12, 2026.
July 23, 2026
Definitive proxy statement filed. The 2026 annual meeting is set for September 10, 2026 at 1:00 p.m. Eastern, virtual. Susan Gordon, Timothy Harvey and William Porteous stand for election as Class II directors; Deloitte & Touche is proposed for ratification as auditor; a say-on-pay vote is on the agenda. The proxy states that 40,921,626 shares of common stock were outstanding as of the July 16 record date.
July 16, 2026
Second quarter 2026 results scheduled for Thursday, August 6, 2026, with the webcast and conference call at 8:30 a.m. Eastern and the results release issued in advance the same day.
July 7, 2026
BlackSky announced it had won “a series of U.S. R&D contracts” to develop and field Gen-3 artificial intelligence solutions for real-time tactical intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance. Under one of them the company will apply its object detection and identification algorithms to mature automated target recognition inside a customer’s classified workflow; it will also continue developing AI-enabled battle damage detection analytics as a feature of the commercial Gen-3 offering. No dollar value, ceiling or term was disclosed, and no agency was named.
June 9, 2026
The National Reconnaissance Office awarded a modification to BlackSky’s existing NRO contract to accelerate development of AROS, a planned line of broad-area collection satellites intended as a commercial alternative for foundation imagery. The company describes the effort as funding “a direct path toward a flight ready multi-spectral, large-area mapping spacecraft and foundation data collection system in 2028.” AROS is designed for country-scale digital mapping, navigation, maritime situational awareness and three-dimensional digital twins, and is meant to operate as an extension of the existing fleet in a tip-and-cue pairing with Gen-3. No contract value was disclosed, and the number of AROS satellites has not been stated.
May 28, 2026
Seven-figure multi-year renewal to accelerate automation of future non-Earth imagery services, pairing a specially designed imaging payload with the Gen-3 architecture and mission-planning software. Customer not named.
May 22, 2026
New at-the-market sales agreement signed with Deutsche Bank Securities and Craig-Hallum for up to $250 million of Class A common stock, replacing the prior December 12, 2025 agreement. The accompanying prospectus supplement notes the last reported sale price on May 20, 2026 was $45.58.
May 12, 2026
Seven-figure subscription contract with a new government customer for Gen-2 mission applications, with an initial one-year period of performance. The first quarter results release put this contract at $5 million.
May 7, 2026
First quarter 2026 results. Revenue $20.8 million, adjusted EBITDA a loss of $5.1 million, cash and investments $117.5 million, capital expenditure $15.8 million. Full-year revenue guidance raised from $120-145 million to $130-150 million and adjusted EBITDA guidance from $6-18 million to $12-24 million; capital expenditure guidance left at $50-60 million.
May 5, 2026
More than two dozen new customers signed for Gen-3 On-Demand subscription services during the first quarter, U.S. and international. No aggregate value disclosed.
April 30, 2026
A one-year Assured contract worth nearly $30 million from an international defense customer, described by the company as its single largest annual Assured contract to date. The same customer had started on a six-figure early access program less than six months earlier.
April 22, 2026
A competitively awarded $25 million multi-year Assured contract with a major international defense customer for maritime domain awareness, converting an early-access Gen-3 On-Demand customer to a multi-year commitment. The release confirms four Gen-3 satellites on orbit.
March 31, 2026
Multi-year sole-source indefinite-delivery, indefinite-quantity contract from the Air Force Research Laboratory valued up to $99 million, to design an advanced large-aperture optical payload for Earth observation and space domain awareness. An initial $2 million was funded. The $99 million is a ceiling, not an order.
March 12, 2026
The fourth Gen-3 satellite was commissioned in under a week from launch, opening Gen-3 general availability to the global customer base through Spectra. Daytime, twilight and night tasking became available to all customers.
March 10, 2026
The fourth Gen-3 satellite achieved on-orbit first light within hours of launch, with a sample image over Santiago, Chile on March 8, 2026.
March 5, 2026
Seven figures of renewed funding toward the NGA Luno A facility monitoring delivery order, a four-year award. The release states BlackSky monitors more than 14 million square kilometers of the Earth’s surface for the agency under that order.
February 26, 2026
Fourth quarter and full year 2025 results. Full-year revenue $106.6 million, fourth quarter revenue $35.2 million, full-year adjusted EBITDA $0.9 million, backlog $345 million on $240 million of bookings, cash $125.6 million. Initial 2026 guidance: revenue $120-145 million, adjusted EBITDA $6-18 million, capital expenditure $50-60 million.
February 17, 2026
Eight-figure international contract combining the sale of one Gen-3 35-centimeter satellite with recurring multi-year on-orbit operations and subscription Assured imagery and analytics services.
December 17, 2025
The third Gen-3 satellite entered commercial operations twenty-one days after launch, taking the Gen-3 fleet to three.
November 4, 2025
A multi-year contract worth more than $30 million with a strategic international defense customer to integrate Gen-3 tactical ISR services into that customer’s secure environment.
September 16, 2025
NGA Luno A delivery order for AI-enabled change detection. The parent vehicle is a five-year multi-award IDIQ with a ceiling of up to $290 million shared across selected vendors. The release states BlackSky monitors more than 30 million square kilometers for the agency across its Luno work.
July 2025
Issue of $185.0 million of 8.25% convertible senior notes due August 1, 2033, used in part to repay the prior senior secured note and legacy debt.
The numbers in pictures
Six charts, all built from figures that appear either in a BlackSky quarterly results release or in an SEC filing. Nothing below is estimated.
What the business actually sells
The constellation
BlackSky operates two generations of satellite side by side. Gen-2 is the older, higher-cadence layer that has been on orbit for years and now also supports automated non-Earth imaging, meaning it photographs other objects in space for space domain awareness customers rather than the ground. Gen-3 is the new layer: 35-centimeter electro-optical resolution, 1.2-meter short-wave infrared for low-light and night collection, and faster downlink. The company describes the pairing as a dual-generation tip-and-cue architecture, where broad or frequent Gen-2 looks flag something and Gen-3 is cued onto it at higher resolution.
Four Gen-3 satellites are on orbit and in service. That number comes from BlackSky’s own releases of April 22 and April 30, 2026, and no company announcement between then and August 4, 2026 has revised it upward. The commissioning cadence has improved with each unit: five days to first light for the first Gen-3, as little as twelve hours for the second and third, first light within hours and full commissioning in under a week for the fourth. On February 26, 2026 the company said it had secured additional dedicated Gen-3 launches during 2026 and had shipped the next satellite to the launch site; on May 7 it said the next Gen-3 was ready to ship. BlackSky does not publish a running count of Gen-2 satellites in its filings or releases, so no Gen-2 number is stated here.
A third line is in development. AROS, announced through the June 9, 2026 NRO contract modification, is a planned family of broad-area collection satellites aimed at foundation imagery, the wide-coverage base mapping layer that underpins navigation, digital twins and maritime awareness. BlackSky frames AROS as filling a gap as older large-area commercial satellites retire, with a flight-ready spacecraft and data collection system targeted for 2028. Neither the value of the modification nor the number of AROS satellites has been disclosed.
BlackSky Spectra
Spectra is the software layer, and it is where the company argues the durable margin sits. Customers task collections through it, receive imagery through it, and run analytics on the results without a human in the loop. Product detail from the April 30, 2026 release gives a sense of the granularity: customers can task daytime, nighttime, stereo sets of five frames or pairs of two, burst collections and two-by-one area collections, with an option to apply AI detection analytics for vehicles, aircraft and vessels on top. The March 5, 2026 NGA release describes the same machinery pointed at pattern-of-life change detection across ports, airfields, military installations and railways.
The July 7, 2026 announcement extends this in two directions: maturing automated target recognition inside a customer’s classified environment, and building AI-enabled battle damage detection into the commercial Gen-3 product. The second of those is the commercially interesting one, because a feature that ships inside the standard offering can be sold to every subscriber rather than to one agency.
The three revenue lines
- Space-based intelligence and AI services. Subscriptions and on-demand imagery and analytics. $65.116 million in 2025, $16.519 million in the first quarter of 2026. This is the recurring line and carries the best margin: total cost of sales fell to 35% of revenue in the first quarter of 2026 from 43% a year earlier, and the company attributes that improvement to this line being a bigger share of the mix.
- Mission solutions. Building and delivering satellites and ground systems for customers who want their own sovereign capability. $21.214 million in 2025 against $5.930 million in 2024, then only $2.009 million in the first quarter of 2026. This line is milestone-driven and is the main cause of quarterly volatility.
- Advanced technology programs. Research and development work funded by government customers. $20.245 million in 2025, $2.246 million in the first quarter of 2026. The AFRL large-aperture payload work and the July 2026 AI contracts sit here.
Who buys
In the first quarter of 2026, international governments contributed $10.704 million, U.S. federal government and agencies $9.245 million, and commercial and other customers $0.825 million. A year earlier the split was $17.126 million international, $11.687 million U.S. federal, $0.731 million commercial. On the U.S. side BlackSky is a vendor on the NRO’s Electro-Optical Commercial Layer program and on the NGA’s Luno A and Luno B programs, and sells through the U.S. Space Force Global Data Marketplace. On the international side, the FY2025 Form 10-K names India and Indonesia as customers where the company has captured major Gen-3 related programs. No other country is named as a customer in the 10-K, and none of the 2026 press releases identifies a national customer by name; commonly circulated attributions of specific contracts to specific countries, including Italy, are not supported by any BlackSky filing or release and are not repeated here.
Employee count was 321 at December 31, 2025, mostly in software development, engineering and manufacturing. The company is headquartered in Herndon, Virginia, and builds satellites through BlackSky Satellite Systems, the former LeoStella operation acquired in November 2024.
Financial position
| Item | Q2 2026 | Q2 2025 | H1 2026 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total revenue | $33.316M | $22.199M | $54.090M | $106.575M |
| Space-based intelligence & AI services | $24.507M | $17.982M | $41.026M | $65.116M |
| Mission solutions | $5.111M | $1.051M | $7.120M | $21.214M |
| Advanced technology programs | $3.698M | $3.166M | $5.944M | $20.245M |
| Cost of sales as % of revenue | 27% | 28% | 31% | 33% |
| Selling, general and administrative | $23.778M | $22.667M | $46.340M | $87.397M |
| Depreciation and amortization | $7.997M | $7.208M | $17.244M | $30.343M |
| Operating loss | -$7.799M | -$13.940M | -$26.336M | – |
| Net loss | -$20.834M | -$41.239M | -$50.497M | -$70.3M |
| Adjusted EBITDA | +$4.7M | -$2.8M | -$0.4M | $0.9M |
| Cash operating expenses | $20.0M | $19.4M | $38.8M | $74.3M |
| Capital expenditure | $15.4M | – | $31.2M | $46.6M |
| Weighted average shares | 38.424M | 32.473M | 37.295M | – |
| Loss per share | -$0.54 | -$1.27 | -$1.35 | – |
Two things stand out from this table. The first is that the $16.9 million widening in the net loss between the first quarters of 2025 and 2026 is dominated by derivatives, not operations: the loss on derivatives swung from a $1.9 million gain to an $8.2 million loss, a $10.1 million move driven entirely by the market value of warrants and other equity instruments that move with the share price. The operating loss widened by $6.6 million, and the largest single component of that was $2.0 million more depreciation as the new Gen-3 satellites came into service.
The second is that cash operating expenses were essentially flat year over year, $18.805 million against $18.930 million. Underneath a lumpy revenue line, the cost base is not running away. Selling, general and administrative did rise $1.1 million, but $1.2 million of that is non-cash stock-based compensation.
Balance sheet at March 31, 2026
Cash and equivalents$39.4MPlus $2.0M restricted and $76.1M short-term investments
Total debt, principal$209.2M$185.0M notes plus $24.2M vendor financing
Satellite work in process$72.4MDown from $80.7M at December 31 as units enter service
Unbilled contract assets$24.2MDown from $28.6M at December 31
Property and equipment net rose from $79.0 million to $95.6 million during the first quarter while satellite work in process fell from $80.7 million to $72.4 million, which is the accounting signature of a satellite moving from construction to operation. Total assets were $371.7 million, total liabilities $290.9 million, and stockholders’ equity $80.8 million, down from $94.9 million three months earlier as the quarterly net loss exceeded the equity issued.
Operating cash flow was negative $2.4 million in the quarter. Investing outflows for property and equipment and satellite work in process were $3.9 million and $11.9 million respectively, giving free cash flow of about negative $18.1 million. Financing brought in $14.3 million net from equity issuance against $1.7 million of debt repayment and $3.0 million of withholding tax on vesting restricted stock units.
A useful nuance in the working capital. BlackSky bills several large contracts on interim milestones, so cash can lag revenue by quarters. Unbilled contract assets peaked at $44.0 million at September 30, 2025 and have come down in two steps to $26.8 million and then $24.2 million as milestones were hit and invoices went out. A further reduction on August 6 would be a cash-positive signal that will not show up anywhere in the revenue line.
What to watch in the next print
- Whether the space-based intelligence and AI services line grows sequentially from $16.519 million. That is the subscription base, and the quarter-on-quarter direction there is more informative than the headline.
- Whether backlog moves above or below $351.6 million, and whether the near-term bucket, the portion scheduled for the current year, grows. A backlog that grows only in the “2028 and later” bucket does not help 2026 guidance.
- The share count on the cover page, and the equity note showing at-the-market proceeds and average price for the quarter.
- Whether full-year revenue guidance of $130 million to $150 million is reaffirmed, narrowed or changed, given how much of it has to land in the second half.
- Capital expenditure pace against the unchanged $50-60 million guide, and any update on Gen-3 launches scheduled for the rest of the year.
Guidance, backlog and the arithmetic that connects them
| Metric | Raised guidance (May 7) | Reaffirmed (Aug 6) | H1 2026 actual | Implied for H2 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $130M – $150M | $130M – $150M | $54.090M | $75.9M – $95.9M |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $12M – $24M | $12M – $24M | -$0.4M | +$12.4M – +$24.4M |
| Capital expenditure | $50M – $60M | $50M – $60M | $31.2M | $18.8M – $28.8M |
The midpoint of the reaffirmed revenue range is $140 million, which is 31.4% above the $106.575 million recorded in 2025. That matches the company’s own description of “over 30% at the midpoint.” After a first half of $54.090 million, the midpoint now requires $85.9 million across the third and fourth quarters, an average of $43.0 million each. The best quarter in BlackSky’s history is the $35.214 million of Q4 2025, and the record just posted is $33.316 million. The reaffirmed guidance therefore assumes two consecutive quarters roughly 22% above the all-time high, which is why the two Gen-3 satellites scheduled to launch in the third quarter carry more weight than a routine launch update.
Now overlay the backlog schedule. Of the $351.6 million of backlog at March 31, the Form 10-Q says $69.3 million is expected to be recognized in the nine months ending December 31, 2026. Against a midpoint requirement of $119.2 million for those same nine months, that leaves roughly $50 million that has to come from work booked and delivered inside the year, or from contracts signed after March 31. The second quarter announcements alone added a nearly $30 million one-year Assured contract and a $25 million multi-year Assured contract, both of which are the right kind of work to close part of that gap, though the multi-year one spreads across periods.
This is not a criticism of the guidance. Short-cycle subscription renewals and on-demand orders genuinely do get booked and burned within a quarter, and BlackSky said it raised the range specifically on “improved in-year revenue visibility.” It is simply the shape of the year: the guidance is not underwritten by backlog alone, and the second quarter print is the first real evidence of whether the in-year conversion is running at the required rate.
Backlog quality
Backlog is defined in the 10-Q as the transaction price of executed contracts less inception-to-date revenue recognized, equal to remaining performance obligations. It includes both funded and unfunded portions and excludes unexercised contract options, which is a conservative definition and worth crediting. The recent trajectory: $356 million at June 30, 2025 with roughly 85% international; $322.7 million at September 30, 2025 with roughly 91% international; $345 million at December 31, 2025 after $240 million of bookings during the year; $351.6 million at March 31, 2026.
So backlog has been broadly flat for a year while revenue guidance has gone up. Both can be true at once when a company is burning backlog at a similar rate to which it books, and when a growing share of the new business is annual subscription work that converts quickly rather than long build programs that sit in backlog for years. The mix inside the number is what matters, and the disclosure that gives it is the three-bucket schedule reproduced in the second chart above.
Contracts: funded orders, ceilings and everything in between
Space and defense companies announce three quite different things using very similar language. Sorting them is the single most valuable habit for reading BlackSky’s news flow.
Funded orderMoney is authorized against a defined scope. It enters backlog and will become revenue. Example: the nearly $30 million one-year Assured contract announced April 30, 2026.
Contract ceiling or IDIQA maximum the customer may buy up to over a period. It is a license to compete for orders, not an order. Example: the $99 million AFRL vehicle, against which $2 million was initially funded.
Multi-award vehicleA ceiling shared with other vendors. No single company can assume it. Example: NGA Luno A, a five-year multi-award IDIQ with a ceiling of up to $290 million across selected awardees.
| Date | Award | Stated value | Type | Customer as disclosed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 30, 2026 | One-year Assured subscription | Nearly $30 million | Funded, one year. Largest annual Assured contract to date | International defense customer, unnamed |
| Apr 22, 2026 | Multi-year Assured, maritime domain awareness | $25 million | Funded, multi-year, competitively awarded | Major international defense customer, unnamed |
| Nov 4, 2025 | Gen-3 tactical ISR integration into a secure environment | More than $30 million | Funded, multi-year | Strategic international defense customer, unnamed |
| Feb 17, 2026 | One Gen-3 satellite plus operations plus Assured services | Eight figures | Funded, multi-year, hybrid build and subscription | International, unnamed |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Large-aperture optical payload development | Up to $99 million | IDIQ ceiling. $2 million funded initially | Air Force Research Laboratory |
| Sep 16, 2025 | NGA Luno A change detection delivery order | Order value not disclosed | Order under a five-year multi-award IDIQ with a ceiling of up to $290 million | National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency |
| Mar 5, 2026 | Luno A facility monitoring, renewed funding | Seven figures | Incremental funding on a four-year award | National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency |
| Jun 24, 2025 | Luno A facility operational monitoring order | Over $24 million | Delivery order | National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency |
| Jun 9, 2026 | AROS development acceleration | Not disclosed | Modification to an existing contract, development funding toward 2028 | National Reconnaissance Office |
| Jul 7, 2026 | Gen-3 AI: automated target recognition and battle damage detection | Not disclosed | A series of U.S. research and development contracts | Unnamed U.S. government customer |
| May 12, 2026 | Gen-2 mission applications subscription | $5 million | Funded, initial one-year period of performance | New government customer, unnamed |
| May 28, 2026 | Non-Earth imaging automation renewal | Seven figures | Funded, multi-year renewal | National security customer, unnamed |
| Aug 19, 2025 | Space domain awareness expansion, non-Earth imaging | Seven figures | Funded expansion, fourth phase | HEO, named commercial partner |
The “up to $160 million” headline from the first quarter deserves the same treatment. BlackSky’s May 7 release opened with “up to $160 million in new contract wins” for the quarter. Reading the same release’s own bullet list, the components are the $99 million AFRL ceiling, the nearly $30 million Assured contract, the $25 million Assured contract, a $5 million Gen-2 subscription and several seven-figure renewals. The two words doing the work are “up to”: $99 million of that total is an IDIQ maximum against which $2 million was funded at award. The genuinely committed portion is closer to $60 million plus the seven-figure items. Both numbers are honest; only one of them is money.
None of this makes the ceilings worthless. A sole-source multi-year IDIQ from AFRL is a real competitive position, and the NRO AROS modification is a signal that the U.S. government wants a second commercial source for foundation imagery as the incumbent large-area satellites age out. But a ceiling is an option on future revenue, not revenue, and it should be valued as such.
Capital structure and dilution
| Instrument | Amount | Terms | Potential share impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8.25% convertible senior notes | $185.0M principal | Issued July 2025, mature August 1, 2033. Effective interest rate 8.73%. Interest paid semi-annually on February 1 and August 1. Not redeemable by the company before August 4, 2028 | Conversion rate 27.1909 shares per $1,000, an initial conversion price of about $36.78. Full conversion equals about 5.03 million shares |
| Satellite launch vendor financing | $24.2M | Effective rates of 6.32% to 11.62%. $9.3 million classified as current at March 31, 2026 | None. Cash obligation |
| At-the-market equity program | Up to $250M | Sales agreement of May 22, 2026 with Deutsche Bank Securities and Craig-Hallum, replacing the December 12, 2025 agreement. In the second quarter the company sold 3.6 million shares for $150 million, an average of roughly $41.67 each | About $100 million of the programme would remain. At the August 5 close of $25.18 that is a further 4.0 million shares, on top of the 3.6 million already issued |
| Public warrants, BKSY.W | Listed on NYSE | Exercisable for Class A common stock at $92.00 per share | Far out of the money at current levels |
| Derivative liabilities | $28.9M carrying value | Warrants and other equity instruments carried at fair value; movements run through the income statement | Drives the gap between net loss and adjusted EBITDA |
The conversion price of $36.78 sits well above the recent share price, so the notes are not currently an equity event; they are an eight-year fixed-rate obligation costing about $15.3 million a year in coupon. Against $117.5 million of cash and investments and $209.2 million of principal debt, net debt was about $91.7 million at March 31.
The at-the-market program is the live variable. In the first quarter of 2026 the company sold $15.0 million of gross proceeds under the older, smaller program. It then replaced that program in May with one four times the size, at a moment when the stock was trading at $45.58. Shares outstanding rose by roughly 4.15 million between March 31 and July 16. If that increase were entirely at-the-market sales at an average price somewhere in the range the stock traded during the second quarter, it would represent a material capital raise. The August 6 disclosure will separate that from restricted stock vesting, and the split matters: one is funding, the other is compensation.
The strategic argument for issuing equity here is straightforward. Capital expenditure guidance of $50 million to $60 million against negative free cash flow means the constellation build is not self-funding, and adding a Gen-3 satellite has historically converted into subscription revenue within months of commissioning. The argument against is equally straightforward: every share sold at a price below what the assets eventually prove to be worth is permanent value transferred out of existing holders. Both sides of that argument are legitimate, and the resolution is empirical, visible in revenue per share over time. For background on how these structures work, see the Merlintrader guide to dilution, ATMs and PIPEs.
Management and governance
Brian E. O’Toole is president, chief executive and a director. He became Legacy BlackSky’s president in November 2018 after serving as its chief technology officer from June 2016, and took on chief executive duties for BlackSky Global in January 2019, continuing through the September 2021 merger with Osprey Technology Acquisition Corp. Before that he founded and led OpenWhere, a geospatial intelligence startup acquired by Legacy BlackSky in 2016. He was named executive of the year in the $75 million to $300 million revenue category at the 2025 Greater Washington GovCon Awards.
Henry Dubois has been chief financial officer since June 2022, having joined as chief development officer in August 2021 and advised the company’s chief executive and board since September 2018. Christiana Lin is general counsel and chief administrative officer. Both Dubois and Lin are named as proxy holders for the 2026 annual meeting.
Three Class II directors stand for election on September 10, 2026. Susan Gordon brings an intelligence community background; the proxy cites her leadership history in that community as the reason for her board selection. Timothy Harvey has served since September 2021 and is executive chairperson of VTS, having previously been president of commercial solutions at BAE Systems following BAE’s acquisition of SilverSky, where he was chief executive. William Porteous has served since September 2021 and was chairperson of Legacy BlackSky’s board from December 2018; he is a general partner and chief operating officer at RRE Ventures and sits on the boards of Spire, Ursa Space Systems, Hyperspectral.AI and others. James Tolonen, on the board since September 2021, was chief financial officer of Business Objects through its acquisition by SAP.
Two features of the board are worth noting for a company of this type. The intelligence community representation is direct rather than decorative, which matters when the customer base is dominated by defense and intelligence agencies. And the venture capital seat has been continuous since before the public listing, which tends to correlate with a tolerance for funding growth through equity issuance.
Ownership, short interest and retail sentiment
Institutional ownership stands at 58.53% and insider ownership at 11.32%, with a float of 36.29 million shares against 40.92 million outstanding. Those figures come from Finviz and are point-in-time screener data rather than filings.
The number that shapes the trading behavior of this stock is short interest at 21.45% of the float, or roughly 7.8 million shares against an average daily volume of about 2.0 million. That is a little under four days to cover. A short position of that size in a name with a binary-feeling quarterly print produces two effects that pull in opposite directions: it caps rallies while the thesis is intact, and it amplifies them sharply when a print or a contract announcement forces covering. It also means a large fraction of the daily tape is not expressing a view on satellites at all.
The three-month performance of -33.11% against a year-to-date gain of +29.60% describes a stock that ran hard early in the year, on the Gen-3 general availability announcement and the run of first-quarter contract wins, and then gave much of it back. The May 22 prospectus supplement recording a $45.58 share price on May 20 against a $23.90 close on August 3 puts a precise figure on the round trip.
Retail discussion on message boards and social platforms tends to center on the contract headline values and on the pace of Gen-3 launches, and to under-weight the funded-versus-ceiling distinction and the share count. Those are non-professional opinions expressed by anonymous participants, they are not research, and they are noted here only as a description of where the retail conversation sits.
Institutional filings during 2026 included Schedule 13G filings in January and amendments in February, March, April and July, consistent with index and quantitative holders adjusting positions rather than a strategic accumulation. Insider Form 4 activity clusters on quarterly dates of January 2, March 12, April 1, June 12 and June 30, 2026, the pattern of scheduled equity award vesting and associated tax withholding rather than open-market decisions, and several were accompanied by Form 144 notices, which are proposed sales rather than completed ones.
Catalyst calendar
| Date | Event | Status | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| August 6, 2026 | Q2 2026 results published before the open | Reported | Revenue $33.3M up 50%, adjusted EBITDA positive $4.7M, cash $244.1M, full-year guidance reaffirmed |
| August 6, 2026 | Form 10-Q filing | Expected with results | Cover-page share count, equity note, updated backlog runoff schedule |
| August 11, 2026 | Canaccord Genuity 46th Annual Growth Conference, Boston, chief executive panel | Confirmed July 30 | First public commentary after the print |
| August 12, 2026 | Oppenheimer 29th Annual Technology, Internet and Communications Conference, virtual, chief financial officer fireside | Confirmed July 30 | Capital allocation and funding questions |
| September 10, 2026 | Annual meeting of stockholders, 1:00 p.m. EDT, virtual | Confirmed in the proxy | Election of three Class II directors, auditor ratification, say-on-pay |
| Q3 2026 | Next two Gen-3 satellites expected to launch | Stated in the August 6 results release | The reaffirmed guidance needs an average of $43M a quarter in the second half, above the all-time high. Added capacity is the mechanism management is relying on |
| Q3 2026 results | Third quarter print, date not yet announced | Historically early November | Whether the second-half revenue ramp implied by guidance is on track |
| 2028 | AROS flight-ready spacecraft and foundation data collection system | Company target stated June 9, 2026 | Whether BlackSky becomes a second U.S. commercial source for foundation imagery |
| August 4, 2028 | First date the convertible notes may be redeemed by the company | Contractual, subject to a 130% price condition | Only relevant if the shares trade well above the $36.78 conversion price |
| August 1, 2033 | Convertible notes mature | Contractual | $185 million principal due if not converted earlier |
The two cases, side by side
The constructive case
- Gen-3 works and deploys fast. Four satellites on orbit, the fourth commissioned in under a week, general availability opened in March 2026. Execution risk on the technology has largely been retired.
- The sales motion is repeatable and observable. Pilot, then subscription, then multi-year Assured, then in the largest cases a sovereign system. The April 30 customer went from a six-figure early access program to a nearly $30 million annual contract in under six months.
- International demand is diversifying the revenue base away from U.S. budget cycles, and was the majority of first-quarter revenue.
- The high-margin subscription line was 79.5% of first-quarter revenue and total cost of sales fell to 35% from 43% year over year.
- Cash operating expenses are flat year over year, so incremental revenue has a clear path to adjusted EBITDA.
- The NRO AROS modification and the AFRL payload award point at a U.S. government that wants BlackSky to build the next thing, not just sell it pictures.
- Guidance was raised in May rather than reaffirmed, which management attributed to in-year visibility rather than hope.
The sceptical case
- Revenue is lumpy to the point of being hard to model. The best and worst of the last five quarters differ by 80%, and one milestone moved the year-on-year comparison by $9.0 million.
- Full-year guidance requires roughly $39.7 million per quarter at the midpoint against $20.8 million actually delivered in the first, and backlog covers only $69.3 million of the $119.2 million required.
- Adjusted EBITDA must swing from a $5.1 million first-quarter loss to $12-24 million for the year, which is a large second-half dependency.
- Share count rose 13.9% between December 31 and July 16, and the new at-the-market authorization is $250 million against a market capitalization under $1 billion.
- Backlog has been broadly flat for a year, between $322.7 million and $356 million, and 65% of it is not scheduled to convert until 2028 or later.
- Headline contract totals mix funded orders with ceilings. Ninety-nine million dollars of the widely quoted “$160 million” first-quarter figure is an IDIQ maximum with $2 million funded.
- Net loss was $70.3 million in 2025 and $29.7 million in the first quarter of 2026, accumulated deficit is $756.1 million, and $185 million of debt costs about $15.3 million a year in coupon.
- Almost no international customer is named, which makes concentration and geopolitical exposure impossible for an outside reader to assess.
Scenario framework
These are analytical frameworks for organizing what the next few prints could show. They are not forecasts, targets or recommendations, and no probability is attached to any of them.
| Framework | What would have to be observed | Where it would show up first |
|---|---|---|
| Guidance holds and converts | Second quarter revenue in the mid-thirties of millions, subscription line growing sequentially, backlog rising with growth in the near-term bucket, full-year range reaffirmed or narrowed upward, capital expenditure tracking to $50-60 million | The August 6 release headline and the backlog runoff table in the Form 10-Q |
| Growth arrives but so does dilution | Revenue and backlog both improve, but the cover-page share count moves materially above 41 million and the equity note shows heavy at-the-market use | Form 10-Q cover page and the stockholders’ equity note |
| Timing slips to the right | Second quarter revenue near the first quarter level, guidance range trimmed or the midpoint walked down, backlog growth concentrated in the 2028-and-later bucket | Guidance paragraph of the release and the backlog schedule |
| Funding pressure | Cash and investments falling below roughly $100 million with capital expenditure still running at $15 million a quarter, unbilled contract assets rising rather than falling | Balance sheet and the contract assets note |
| Second-source status confirmed | A funded AROS award with a stated value, or an AFRL task order materially above the initial $2 million, or a named international sovereign program | An 8-K or a company press release, at any time |
Bottom line
BlackSky has done the hard engineering part. Four Gen-3 satellites are on orbit, they were commissioned faster with each unit, and the capability is generally available to every customer through Spectra. International defense ministries are converting from pilots to multi-year subscriptions at a visible pace, and two of those conversions in April 2026 carried stated values of nearly $30 million and $25 million.
What has not yet been demonstrated is that the revenue arrives smoothly enough to make the business legible from the outside. The first quarter of 2026 was $20.8 million. The year is guided to $130-150 million. Backlog covers $69.3 million of the remaining nine months. The gap has to be closed by work that is booked and delivered inside the year, and August 6 is the first hard evidence of whether that is happening.
The second question is who pays for the constellation. Capital expenditure of $50-60 million a year against negative free cash flow is being funded from a $117.5 million cash position, $185 million of eight-year convertible debt and an at-the-market program that was just quadrupled to $250 million. Shares outstanding went from 35.9 million to 40.9 million in six and a half months. That is not, by itself, a verdict; it is a cost, and whether it was worth paying depends on what the satellites earn.
Three numbers will tell most of the story within minutes of the release: total revenue, backlog with its runoff schedule, and the share count on the cover of the Form 10-Q. The contract headlines will be easier to read if each one is sorted first into funded order, ceiling or framework before it is added to anything.
For dated events across the wider sector, the Merlintrader Free Catalyst Calendar tracks earnings, launches and regulatory dates in one place.
Related research on Merlintrader
- Space, Defense & AI Stock Hubs 2026: the new infrastructure race — the full index of company hubs in this sector.
- Planet Labs ($PL) Stock Hub — the closest listed comparison in commercial Earth observation, with a coverage-first rather than revisit-first constellation.
- Satellogic ($SATL) Stock Hub — another small-cap imaging operator selling sovereign constellations to governments.
- Redwire ($RDW) Stock Hub — space infrastructure and defense technology, reporting the same week.
- Rocket Lab ($RKLB) Stock Hub — launch and spacecraft manufacturing, upstream of this supply chain.
- BigBear.ai ($BBAI) Stock Hub — defense analytics software, the layer above the sensor.
- Dilution, ATMs and PIPEs: how equity funding actually works — background for the capital structure section above.
- Weekly Market Pulse — the week ahead across catalysts and earnings.
Primary and reference sources
- BlackSky to Host Second Quarter 2026 Results Conference Call (July 16, 2026): the August 6, 2026 date, the 8:30 a.m. EDT call and the webcast and pre-registration links.
- BlackSky Reports First Quarter 2026 Results (May 7, 2026): revenue, adjusted EBITDA, cash, capital expenditure, raised guidance and the full financial statements quoted above.
- Form 10-Q for the quarter ended March 31, 2026 (filed May 7, 2026): the $351.6 million backlog and its runoff schedule, revenue by customer type, the convertible note terms, the at-the-market disclosure and the balance sheet.
- Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2025 (filed March 17, 2026): the constellation and Spectra descriptions, the EOCL and Luno A and B programs, the reference to major Gen-3 programs with customers in India and Indonesia, and the 321-employee headcount.
- Definitive proxy statement (filed July 23, 2026): 40,921,626 shares outstanding at the July 16 record date, the September 10, 2026 annual meeting, and the biographies of directors and executive officers.
- Form 8-K dated May 22, 2026 and the accompanying Form 424B5: the up-to-$250 million at-the-market sales agreement replacing the December 12, 2025 agreement, and the $45.58 reference price of May 20, 2026.
- Fourth quarter and full year 2025 results (February 26, 2026): full-year revenue, $345 million backlog, $240 million of bookings and the initial 2026 guidance.
- NRO AROS contract modification (June 9, 2026) and Gen-3 AI research and development contracts (July 7, 2026), neither of which discloses a value.
- AFRL $99 million IDIQ with $2 million initially funded (March 31, 2026).
- Contract announcements of April 30, 2026 (nearly $30 million, one year) and April 22, 2026 ($25 million, multi-year, four Gen-3 satellites on orbit).
- Gen-3 general availability (March 12, 2026) and the August 11 and 12 investor conferences (July 30, 2026).
- All BlackSky filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001753539) · BlackSky press release archive.
Share price, market capitalization, float, short interest, ownership percentages, performance figures and the consensus target price are from Finviz Elite, cross-checked against an independent end-of-day quote provider, as of the August 3, 2026 close. All company financial data, share counts, backlog figures, guidance and contract values come from BlackSky’s SEC filings and its own press releases.
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Educational disclaimer
This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, legal advice, tax advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. It has been prepared in line with U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission guidance on financial publishing and does not create any adviser relationship. Small and mid-cap equities, aerospace and defense technology companies, space-related stocks and companies with negative earnings or complex capital structures can be highly volatile and risky. Readers should conduct their own due diligence, review official company filings and consult a qualified financial adviser where appropriate. The author and Merlintrader are not acting as registered investment advisers or broker-dealers. All scenarios are analytical frameworks, not predictions or guarantees. Market prices, filings, ownership data, analyst views and company fundamentals can change quickly, and figures quoted here are accurate as of August 4, 2026.
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