DISCLAIMER — Not financial advice. Educational content only, not an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security. Biotech and small/mid-cap stocks are highly speculative and volatile and can result in a partial or total loss of capital. Do your own research and consult a licensed advisor where appropriate. / Contenuti a solo scopo informativo e didattico, non costituiscono consulenza finanziaria né offerta o sollecitazione al pubblico risparmio ai sensi delle normative CONSOB e SEC. Le azioni biotech e le small/mid cap sono strumenti altamente speculativi e volatili e possono comportare la perdita parziale o totale del capitale investito. Si raccomanda di effettuare sempre le proprie ricerche e, se necessario, di rivolgersi a un consulente abilitato.
Merlintrader Trading Pub
Biotech catalyst news and analysis. FDA PDUFA tracker
Merlintrader Trading Pub
Biotech catalyst news and analysis. FDA PDUFA tracker
Briefing Space-AI-Defence stocks Jan 14
Daily overview on defence, space and AI-linked military names:
Grok enters Pentagon networks, MBDA strengthens its position in Brazil
and space small caps swing between rational euphoria and technical risk.
Updated: January 14, 2026 – US pre-market
Defence – Small & Mid Caps
Theme of the day: Grok & Gemini join the PentagonThe central story is the announcement, delivered by Pete Hegseth directly from SpaceX in Texas, that Grok (xAI) is being integrated into US Department of Defense networks alongside Google’s Gemini. The stated goal is to turn the armed forces into a true AI-first warfighting force, bringing frontier models onto classified and unclassified networks and making “all appropriate data” available to AI.
This immediately shifts attention to whoever provides data, sensors and software ready to talk to these models. On the front line you have platforms like Palantir (no longer a small cap), but at the small/mid-cap level the names to keep in the front row are BigBear.ai (BBAI) and sensor/edge providers like Sidus Space (SIDU), plus anyone building the physical assets that these AIs will sit on.
International contracts: MBDA & Brazil
On the more traditional side, the Brazilian Army has selected the MBDA EMADS air defence system with CAMM-ER missiles, plus Kronos radar and Leonardo C2. It’s a clear message: Europe is not just defending its own backyard, it is also strengthening its footprint in South America, putting competitive pressure on US short/medium-range producers such as Kratos (KTOS) and AeroVironment (AVAV).
Key things to watch next
- Evolution of AI/ML-related contracts under GenAI.mil and platforms such as ORION (BBAI).
- Potential Pentagon pressure on companies to favour R&D over buybacks, which would affect dividend / capital allocation policies at some mid caps.
- New tenders for UAV systems and loitering munitions, feeding momentum for names such as KTOS and AVAV.
Space – Small & Mid Caps
Theme of the day: “Rational euphoria”Planet Labs (PL) – Satellite data as fuel for AI
Planet Labs continues to be one of the most compelling cases for the “Space + AI” theme. Dan Ives (Wedbush) has raised his target to $28 and explicitly tied Planet’s value to its massive archive of Earth imagery, ideal for training computer vision models used in surveillance, climate, agriculture and military applications.
Rocket Lab (RKLB) – Neutron as Falcon 9’s challenger
Rocket Lab has confirmed that its Neutron rocket will arrive at Launch Complex 3 in Virginia by the end of Q1 2026. It is in the final qualification test phase and the market is already pricing in the idea that this vehicle can open a credible second path for medium-lift launches, breaking Falcon 9’s near monopoly.
Analyst targets are aggressive (KeyBanc and Goldman talk about numbers from the high 20s up into the 70s), which makes the stock extremely sensitive to any delays or lost contracts.
Redwire (RDW), ASTS & the post-ISS world
Redwire is benefiting from a rare combo: strong sentiment and solid news flow. The recent rally is underpinned by docking contracts for future commercial stations that will replace the ISS, and H.C. Wainwright’s target remains well above current levels, signalling confidence in the 2026 backlog.
At the far end of the spectrum we find AST SpaceMobile (ASTS), which has become the poster child for space euphoria: market cap exploding, P/S multiples off the charts and a first major downgrade (Scotiabank, Sell) reminding everyone how thin the line is between visionary narrative and execution risk.
AI & Data – The strategic “dark matter”
Theme of the day: data that plug into Grok/GeminiBigBear.ai (BBAI) – Operational AI for the military
BigBear.ai is emerging as the clearest way to play AI on the defence/government side. Its ORION decision-support platform and VANE foreign-media analysis solutions are a preview of how commands will use Grok- and Gemini-like models: not as chat toys, but as engines embedded inside operational dashboards.
Spire (SPIR), BlackSky (BKSY) – AI-driven maritime surveillance
Spire and BlackSky are pushing AI-driven Maritime Custody services that blend RF, AIS and optical imagery to track ships and “dark vessels” in near real time. These are natural data feeds for AI systems used by navies, coast guards and commercial players monitoring choke points and sanctions evasion.
Retail sentiment: the “new Nvidias” of space
On the social side, Reddit and StockTwits are still pushing the story that ASTS and a handful of space small caps are the “new Nvidias” of 2026. It’s a useful thermometer for where speculation is thickest: the classic high-risk mix is huge tech story + very limited visibility on fundamentals.
Daily radar – 30 Space / AI / Defence tickers
Working map for the briefing: not recommendations, just names to keep on screen in the coming days.
| Ticker | Bucket | Company | What it does | Driver / current focus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BBAI | AI Defence | BigBear.ai | Operational AI for defence and government (ORION, VANE). | Direct beneficiary of the Pentagon’s AI-first pivot; watch for new DoD awards and execution on backlog. |
| LHX | Defence | L3Harris | Large defence integrator; comms, avionics, weapon systems. | Spin-off of the missile motor business with a 1B$ DoD equity stake ahead of a 2026 IPO. |
| KTOS | Defence | Kratos | Drones, target vehicles, loyal wingman, unmanned systems. | Exposure to rising demand for UAVs and loitering munitions in modern conflicts. |
| AVAV | Defence | AeroVironment | Tactical drones and loitering munitions (Switchblade family). | Plays the “real battlefield” angle (Ukraine, potential Indo-Pacific hotspots). |
| AXON | Security | Axon | Tasers, body cams and digital evidence platforms. | Bridge between internal security and AI-ready video/data management. |
| SIDU | Dual-use | Sidus Space | Space hardware, AIS, edge AI computers for space/defence missions. | Very high beta around missile defence awards and AI-on-orbit product launches. |
| BKSY | Geo-Intel | BlackSky | High-frequency imaging and analytics for defence/intelligence. | Key partner for AI-driven maritime tracking; part of the “space data” AI feed. |
| KBR | Defence | KBR Inc. | Engineering and mission support for defence, space and energy. | Stable proxy for federal spending on infrastructure and mission support (NASA, DoD). |
| BWXT | Nuclear | BWX Technologies | Nuclear components and services for US Navy and defence programs. | Plays the nuclear backbone theme for both defence and energy-hungry data centres. |
| PLTR | AI / Gov | Palantir | Data and AI platform for defence, intelligence and public sector. | Benchmark name for government AI deployments, even if no longer in the small-cap bucket. |
| PL | Space | Planet Labs | Global imaging constellation, huge historical archive of Earth data. | Wedbush upgrade to $28 on “Space + AI” thesis; watch contract momentum with defence/intel customers. |
| RKLB | Space | Rocket Lab | Electron launches, Neutron medium-lift launcher in development, SDA satellites. | Neutron arrival at LC-3 (Q1 2026) + large SDA awards; high expectations already in the price. |
| RDW | Infra | Redwire | Structures, docking and critical components for stations and spacecraft. | Post-ISS infrastructure play, with high-profile docking contracts and bullish targets from HCW. |
| ASTS | Telecom | AST SpaceMobile | Global cellular coverage via satellites for standard smartphones. | Flagship of “space euphoria”; valuations stretched, with first Sell ratings emerging. |
| SPIR | RF Data | Spire Global | RF, weather, maritime and aviation data from LEO constellation. | Key feed for maritime surveillance AI services together with BlackSky. |
| LUNR | Lunar / Bus | Intuitive Machines | Lunar landers and satellite buses via the Lanteris acquisition. | Transitioning from “moonshot” to integrated space prime with bus + lander capability. |
| SATL | EO | Satellogic | High-resolution Earth observation for sovereign and commercial customers. | Portugal deal and similar contracts show that “EO as a service” has real sovereign demand. |
| MNTS | Tugs | Momentus | Space tugs and payload hosting services. | Very speculative name, tied to contract wins and balance sheet repair. |
| RDW | Dual-use | Redwire | (Re-flagged) – Orbital infrastructure for both civil and defence customers. | Interesting bridge between US and European space ecosystems. |
| SIDU | Dual-use | Sidus Space | (Re-flagged) – Hardware, AIS, edge AI for space and defence missions. | Prototype of a dual-use micro-cap where AI, defence and space converge. |
| CACI | IT Defence | CACI | IT, cyber and intelligence services for DoD and federal agencies. | Directly exposed to AI/cyber line items in government contracts. |
| LDOS | IT Defence | Leidos | IT, cyber, space and healthcare systems for defence and public sector. | Integrator that often sits in prime position in new AI/cyber tenders. |
| CRWD | Cyber | CrowdStrike | Cloud-first cybersecurity platform. | Barometer of cyber risk and digital escalation in geopolitical crises. |
| ZS | Cyber | Zscaler | Zero-trust security for networks and cloud. | Key component of any “AI + sensitive data in cloud” strategy for governments. |
| NET | Edge | Cloudflare | CDN, edge compute and application security. | Not a pure defence play but an increasingly critical layer for public-sector workloads. |
| SNOW | Data | Snowflake | Data cloud for analytics and AI. | Infrastructure for AI workloads, including regulated/government environments. |
| GOOGL | AI / Gov | Alphabet | Gemini, frontier AI model adopted by DoD via GenAI.mil. | Together with Grok, effectively defines the first-generation AI stack for US military use. |
| xAI | AI | xAI (private) | Developer of Grok, integrated into DoD networks. | Not investable directly, but shapes the Grok ecosystem and the narrative around compatible small caps. |
Scanner for active traders
Try ChartsWatcher free, then unlock 10% OFF with SAVE10
ChartsWatcher is a real-time scanner for momentum traders: fast movers, unusual volume and rotations — so you can focus on the few tickers that matter right now, instead of watching hundreds of charts.
Start with the free version. When you upgrade, use SAVE10 for 10% OFF your first paid period.
Start free – then use SAVE10
No credit card required to start. Apply SAVE10 when upgrading.
Recommended platform
One platform. All your brokers.
Medved Trader connects multiple brokers in one workspace, with pro charts, hotkeys and fast execution — without changing your broker accounts.
A single cockpit for positions, Level II and multi-broker order routing, built for active day & swing traders.
Get 1 Month Free ➔
Multi-broker workflow + customizable layouts in one platform.
Monica.im – the AI assistant I use every day
If you find value in the work I publish on Merlintrader and want a practical AI assistant for research and writing, you can sign up using this referral link. Click here to try Monica.im and support the site
Find out how I use AI on Merlintrader: AI, retail and Merlintrader
Disclosure: some of the links in the promotional blocks above are affiliate or referral links. If you choose to subscribe or sign up through them, Merlintrader may receive a small commission or benefit at no extra cost to you.
